The Pooled-Risk Company Management Company
paulgraham.com
paulgraham.com
I guess that's why I don't play the lottery.
I'm not proposing that. As I said in the essay, running Viaweb was the most interesting job I'd had. It just wasn't the most interesting thing I could imagine doing.
That's the question you have to answer, if you're ambitious: not just "do I like what I'm doing?" but "do I like what I'm doing more than anything else I could be doing?"
Right, they're not mutually exclusive.
But the old school way of thinking simply says that achieving the former will lead to the latter.
I.e., there is such a thing as trying to sell too early.
Building revenue-less companies to flip may have yielded some spectacular successes in the past (e.g. YouTube), but modeling yourself on rare, black-swan events is not a recipe for success.
You may want the co managed to maximize customer satisfaction for long-term stability (ala Craigslist), but a public acquirer will likely manage to maximize quarterly revenue.
Sure, but they guarantee your returns in advance.
If you could get a professional manager in to help run your company, you would still have control and could fire/replace him. Richard Branson does not run his 250 or so companies simultaneously - he uses professional managers. He pools risk but the firms remain private.
If you sell out, you lose control of your business. That can be a good or a bad thing. (But you can only really get out if you lose control of the business.)
As my dad tells me, "If you sell out, get out." It's wise advice.
You cannot "optimize" people - even talking about what is optimal is meaningless when you deal in collections of people. This is the fundamental libertarian assumption, which is why libertarians are for free market capitalism. Not because it maximizes wealth, but because it let's people simply be.
I am afraid this essay is a perfect distillation of the flip-it model, just as the model is going out of fashion.
My broader point is that companies/people (including founders) have goals, dreams, aspirations ... maximizing return on investment may not even be the biggest goal. It is a late 20th century Milton Friedmanite doctrine (which classical libertarians actually disagree with) that the only purpose of a company ought to be to maximize shareholder wealth. I mention this because you refer to "optimal" strategy, but in this case, there is no such optimal strategy, because the goals are so extremely diverse and often mutually contradictory.
Interestingly, shareholder wealth maximization (which academics are so fond of) is a proposition most real world capitalists don't actually subscribe to - witness the resistance of Jerry Yang to being absorbed. It has little do with long term shareholder wealth maximization (though he has to pretend that it is, in order to keep the lawyers at bay), and everything to do with preserving what he perceives as a unique Yahoo culture from being decimated (somewhat justified, in my opinion), even at the cost of losing substantial value as a shareholder himself. There is no right or wrong in this (I think his cause is hopeless myself), just that this is how Jerry Yang, the capitalist part owner of Yahoo, operates.
What is the goal of a company? It ultimately boils down to a religious question of "Who am I? What do I want?" which each founder (and each employee) has to ask himself/herself. DHH laid out his answer, and I bet an awful lot of founders identify with it. You have your school of thought on this, which I bet a lot of founders identify with too. But yours is not any kind of optimal extreme of DHH.
I mean what I said, and no more. So please, if you think you disagree with me, find the actual sentence or sentences in the essay that you believe are false.
startingup is making the assumption that the goal of hiring this manager is to maximize the startup's ROI with minimum attention from the founders. However, I believe pg's original point was not that anything can be maximized, but that things can more or less stay in check without the founder looking, which is a far weaker claim. This isn't about profit, but about giving the founders the opportunity to do something more interesting, if such a thing were to exist. The essay is cautions enough not to make any grandiose claims. Imho, you've got a straw man on your hands, startingup.
David isn't mistaken in saying you should start a company to live off its revenues. The mistake is thinking this is somehow opposed to starting a company and selling it. <i>In fact, for most people the latter is merely the optimal case of the former.</i>
I don't know if this is really a valid criticism, since most YC startups don't seem to expand that far past the founding team, but I'm pretty sure that was his point.
Sounds like a good plan. Let's think about the optimal way to do this.
Disagreeing by agreeing is a powerful technique. But it's pretty obvious in this case. I prefer disagreeing head on, if I have a solid argument.
They want enough money that (a) they don't have to worry about running out of money and (b) they can spend their time how they want. Running your own business offers neither.
I have a friend who "ran his own business" for 4 years while doing his medical degree, and accumulated over a million dollars in the process. That's not enough to change your lifestyle to be like the mega-rich, but it's certainly enough to gain the freedom to spend your time the way you want it. Think of it this way: $1m gives you at least enough money to spend 10 comfortable years doing other stuff and figuring out what else you really want to do.
And as anyone who runs their own business can tell you, that requires your complete attention.
That's not true for all businesses. I have a business that I haven't paid attention to for over 9 months and it's still generating revenues (couple of thousand dollars a month). Sure, revenues go down, but even with minimal maintenance you can keep them dropping reasonably slowly.
There will of course be some founders who wouldn't like that idea: the ones who like running their company so much that there's nothing else they'd rather do. _But this group must be small_.
Why must it be small? Maybe this group is much larger than the other. Where's the evidence, or even argument, that it must be small? It seems to me there are far more people running IT businesses than people starting up in the valley. I would think actually the number of people who enjoy running an online business must be large.
I could go on, but this comment will turn into a rant. I'm quite disappointed in this one. When DHH gave his presentation I thought it was quite interesting that Startup School was hosting a talk that went directly against their principles ("make something ppl want and don't worry about the money", for example), and I was curious what pg's answer would be. I'm not convinced by this answer. It seems weak and somewhat dishonest.
I get "This video is not available" for DHH's presentation: http://omnisio.com/startupschool08/david-heinemeier-hansson-...
If 37s has doubled revenue for the last 4 or 5 years while hiring 2-3 extra people, I'm pretty sure they're not far from walking away whenever they want. Or they could just work 4 days a week and have the company pay for their cooking and Tai Chi classes while still retaining full control. That still sounds like a better deal to me.
Their reward is making the company fit the lifestyle they choose to have as much as possible, instead of selling out. I agree that this is very appealing.
There's an old Romanian saying:
The cow grows fat under the eye of the farmer.
Investments are just another business model with recurring revenues. It begins to die the moment you stop managing it. You can get a professional manager for that too - but they too require attention.
Both require attention to thrive.
What exactly do you have to manage again?
Believe me, I've been thinking a lot about that recently.
That said, your point is taken: There is some amount of money where you can set up some fairly risk-free, static investments and take out $X every year indefinitely. Just make sure you do a little more thinking upfront about how much money that is, and what static investments those are.
By my math, pg made between $10-$30 million. I don't know what his cut of the $50 million was, but Stan Reiss (?) from Startup School 2005 said the Yahoo stock value went up from $50mil to $750 mil, so whatever pg kept in Yahoo stock went up by 15x. We don't know how much Yahoo he kept post-crash, but I'd peg him still over $5mil, maybe up to $30mil if he's Mark Cuban savvy. I don't think the 37s guys have accumulated that much, but I'd bet they have more than any YC alum (so far - we'll look again when YC is 5 years old).
Using your definition, I don't think walking away is something anyone on that team is interested in doing. They're already living in their "walk away" phase.
If they can walk away that easily (i.e. they are replacable), do the founders add value anyway?
Costs: Can't be too much more, certainly not nearly matching the revenue growth. They do their own advertising and marketing so that's free. Infrastructure costs are higher because of more accounts, so let's count that as the cost of 7 employees, giving them double the costs. And with extra benefits for employees, put it up to 2.5x of 2004 expenses. total.
The profit picture gets even more ridiculous. If they had 5% margins in 2004, their costs go up by 2.5 and revenues go up by 15, then their profit is over 250x over 2004. Divide that by 3(?) founders/principals and you get a lot per year. Heck, it's still a lot if you divide it by all 12 employees.
37s is probably making more profit annually than most startup founders will ever sell a company for. If they pocket a part of that a year, then they have the equivalent cash to a liquidity event plus they still have the company. Granted, they're exceptionally successful, but hopefully these numbers will open some eyes for people that look down on lifestyle businesses.
I had a shareware business that footed the bills and this was not true in my case. There was a large number of people in the Association of Shareware Professionals trade group that were in a similar position. I'm not sure it's true of web apps either. I had tons of time to develop or twiddle my thumbs.
I had freedom. Security is tougher though, as I did eventually get squashed by Google/MS.
"It's not necessary to give your startup your complete attention to run it. I treated my shareware business as a part time job. Mind you, other companies that could focus attention on their competing products drove me out of business."
Did I get that right?
To paraphrase you: apologies for being a tool, but I can't help it. I bet you "know how to make Twitter scale," too. I love uninformed monday morning quarterbacks.
A full-time company would probably handle that scenario by evaluating the market and seeing how to leverage their investment. For example, if your pop-up blocker had any intelligence to it, one approach might involve building the equivalent of adblock for IE, which I suspect would sell about as well as a popup blocker pre-builtin. Then again, I'm not sure how much of a company one could expect to build around a simple pop-up blocker, so calling yourself a company is a bit of a stretch -- it's really just a hobby.
No need to apologize for being a tool, this is the Internet and it is assumed.
Anyhow, arguing with a troll is not a good use of my time, so I'm cutting this off now.
http://anand.typepad.com/datawocky/2008/06/indias-sms-gupshu...
SMS GupShup's business and technology are very different from Twitter's. SMS GS is geared towards distributing SMS's, not displaying them on pages/open API's. That makes a huge difference.
But if you can find both (and people have), it's GREAT.
Getting away from PG's essay, there could be options other than to accept that output - we could change the input, and not necessarily selling out our 'doing love' for 'market love'.
The 'doing love' could be a set (not a single thing). Some members of the set just being tweaks on a theme, others being entirely dissimilar themes. By experimenting with our set of 'doing loves', we might stumble on the one that also gives 'market love' - without compromise. Like a breakout novel, giving overnight success, overdecades.
I would say that these are the economic motives for just about every human being. Economic "freedom" and "security" are often euphemisms for living a carefree life of luxury. Who wouldn't want that? Add "power" and you've got the economic motives for every money-grubbing scoundrel that ever existed. Everyone would love to get rich quick, it's just that startup founders looking to flip fast are willing to take more risks and sacrifices to attempt it.
A founder motive that I can appreciate is the desire to create great and interesting things that improve others' lives.
Some startups can be profitable almost from day one, and need very little cash to get there; others need to do experiments for a much longer time, and could end-up having a useful technology but no revenue model. In the latter case it's only natural that someone will come along who could make use of the technology and simply acquire the company instead of spending even more money developing their own solution.
In many cases the companies in the latter group never have any significant chances of making a lot of money, and acquisition is really the only way for the founders to monetize on their work. Similarly, the companies in the former group could simply never grow enough to be interesting for acquisition -- we call them lifestyle businesses.
37signals and Carsonified are great examples of lifestyle businesses; Digg, Twitter, Zemanta, and even Google, are companies which would never happen if they have tried to bootstrap.
Can you give us an example - under what circumstances would selling to a private company be a smart move?
The goal becomes to make it to the walkaway date with as little trouble as possible. To continue to manage "your baby" post acquisition is futile.
Hence, even managed quarterly, public co. is a better option for you.
What a pleasure to have such a problem.
Maybe that's why there aren't many new googles around: entrepreneurs have "more interesting" activities in mind they need to make a quick $5M for.
Incidentally, though, Gates did just find that there was something more interesting to do.
Of course in Ancient Greece it would be optimal to not have a job, but in America it's a liability.
I don't understand the get-rich-quick mentality for making startups. It's illogical. Making a startup to accomplish a meaningful goal is interesting, but money per se isn't. Making lots of money to "be free" reduces to non-meaningful goals, no-goals centered around the rejection of much of what is worthwhile in life. It's better for people to have real, tangible goals and pursue them, which nearly always leads to work, even if said people already have "enough money."
If one needs time to contemplate, sure, take a few years off. But normally during such years, people who are healthy and challenging themselves will automatically start doing things interesting enough that they can convince someone to pay them for it. If you can't do this, then you've essentially proved the irrelevance of your work (or that you need to go into academia, if your work is too theoretical to earn money in the "normal" world.)
A strong argument for making a startup is when you want to accomplish something so ambitious that no job would let you tackle that task, simply because jobs have smaller scope.
Maybe there are other good arguments for startups, but people are very unclear when they throw a bunch of confusing messages about money out there, because increasing income doesn't make people much happier [1], and it's easy for people who live in their means to take years off from jobs, if that's the issue at hand.
Even if you want to never work again, there's a greater probability of success in taking a high paying, dull job and working hard for several years, than working on a startup. But many ambitious people would have a lot less pride in doing this, despite the higher probability of success. Again this indicates that startups are really about pride of ownership, pride of tackling new ideas, changing the world, etc, than money.
[1]. http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S15/15/09S18/inde...
Edit: I guess 37 signals is a good case study of this. They work 4 days a week and have had tremendous success. I have 0 experience running a real "business", but I have a hunch that you could build a successful one that doesn't require the amount of attention and work that PG is talking about.
When Viaweb became yahoo store it's possible it got a lot more users, but I'd bet existing users weren't as happy anymore. They got shitty yahoo service.
Perhaps in this industry management companies just haven't gotten very good yet. More likely, the difference in scale breaks the analogy from the user's point of view.
http://omnisio.com/startupschool08/david-heinemeier-hansson-...
Some founders seemed to like running their companies and did OK while they were at it: There's Bill and Steve, of course. And Michael Dell. And Larry Ellison. And Jeff Bezos. And they guys from Sun and Ken Olsen at DEC, and Bill and Dave over at HP - yeah, almost every company that's really mattered in the IT world. If DHH want's to run with that crowd, or just run a good, healthy little business, then good for him.
On the other hand,"pump and dump" mentality you seem to favor is exactly the mindset of the multi-millionaires on wall street and in Detroit today who continue to line their pockets while their companies fail or go on the dole.
Really Paul, I know you VC guys have a short attention span (ugh, i mean, investment horizon), but it seems like you're starting to believe that what puts money in your pocket is by definition an absolute good.
If you are starting a business which will make a profit from the outset, in which you have complete control:
- After a while you may want to do something else other than run the business.
+ A good way of doing this is to sell the business to a public company.
- It may take some time to do this depending on the market and size of the business. During which you may not want to be there.
+ Since the business is making money you don't need to rush the sale.
That all sounds pretty good to me.
Beyond the mentioned freedom and security, a lot of people start business so that they can be more in control of their own lives.
If you start a business with the intention of keeping full control, then you're going to be responsible for the continued control of it.
Maybe something similar to this Artist Pension Trust. http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2007/aug/12/4
I think this would be similar to what VCs do, invest in 20 startups and hope for one big hit or a couple of good hits.
No references. More on Mr. Market here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Graham
that's an odd "disadvantage", Paul. It implies that running my company is something I don't want to do. Don't know about you, but I LOVE running my company.
In this thread:
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=79057
pg has answered the question, "What would you do if you were a billionaire?" with "Day to day? Much the same thing, actually."
Perhaps doing a startup is "spending our time how we want".
Right now, it's hard for me to imagine myself doing anything else. Maybe I'll feel differently later.