They see it as replacing useless low yield treasuries with something else. Bitcoin also isnt a security. I understand what you mean though.
It was crazy to think this 5 years ago, now its less crazy, and tomorrow it will be normal. That my thesis and its also why billionaires are pouring in right now. If you asked me to hold a bitcoin vs a bond equivalent for long term the decision is easy for me especially knowing that global debt monetization is essentially a necessity at this point.
Over then next 5 years, highly unlikely.
If your investing horizon is 6 months, Bitcoin is certainly not for you.
This is the problem with the Bitcoin enthusiasts - they think they can predict the future price with near certainty. You don’t think that rosy picture of BTC is held by thousands of others and already baked into the share price? “Highly unlikely” only describes Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value.
If your investing horizon is any amount of time, Bitcoin is not for you. Bitcoin is not an investment, it’s a pure speculation. As another comment perfectly summed it up, lottery tickets are not an investment.
Right before they show you 20 pages of past performance graphs.
I wonder why they would exert themselves in such a fashion after the govt-mandated CYA disclaimer
Also: I think you've missed the point of the video.
Second comment here: Long cyclical runs can be timed. For instance golds decade long rip prior to the decline was due to etf introductions.
And no I dont think you do “got it”. You dont hold anything in existence forever. If youre not comfortable making shifts every few years (or whatever) and having to actually do some thinking from time to time then investing isnt for you.
So you only hold it when you’re trying to time the market? Got it.
That's a bold statement, given that within the last 3 years, Bitcoin dropped 80% from about the current price, only to recover in the last year.
You also completely ignore that Bitcoin might be overtaken by another competitor in this area. Altavista and Myspace didn't win either.
Think about it… it's highly unlikely that something else could achieve the network effects, mindshare, hashing power and all of the rest of bitcoin's attributes right now. In the early days, when bitcoin barely had any value at all, it would have been possible. But having gone from $0 to $350+ billion in market cap, it's too late.
Quoting Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling):
"Bitcoin is a non-sovereign, hard-capped supply, global, immutable, decentralized digital store of value. It’s an insurance policy against monetary and fiscal policy irresponsibility from central banks and governments globally."
This explains why Bitcoin won't be overtaken.
The British pound sterling, the French franc, the Dutch guilder, they all were reserve currencies but they got overtaken.
Usually not because their inherent values changed but because the environment changed and another, more suitable currency emerged. That's exactly the narrative that people push about Bitcoin's advantages over the US dollar.
But because things happen a lot faster in crypto than they do in traditional finance, I wouldn't bet on "Bitcoin can't ever be overtaken".
Is it though? If you bought BTC at any given time during 2009-2015, you are in the green 5 years after. Pretty good evidence of unlikeliness to me.
Also, the parent took 5 year period (and not 3) on purpose -- it's exactly 1 year longer than the halving period.
Interest rates are close to zero; including inflation, if Saylor kept the company's treasury in cash (and cash equivalents), he's be losing money.
1. Not when corporations and billionaires are investing in it and are planning to hold it for a long time.
2. The dollar has lost 80% of its value in the last 80-90 years. And with no end in sight of the Fed printing trillions of dollars, the dollar is being debased as we speak.
3. The dollar may not be the global reserve currency for much longer; the US is only about 20% of global GDP [1].
[1] "The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System"—https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/
And regarding Saylor, you say that holding it in cash is literally losing money - if Bitcoin drops 80% again, he’ll be losing a LOT more than the 1% he’d lose if he had cash.
That was before institutional money and billionaires took it seriously. That was also before a global pandemic that has required virtually all central banks to inject trillions of dollars into the global economy to keep it afloat, inflating fiat currencies.
Saylor knows exactly what he's doing—a speculative attack [1]—when someone uses a shitty currency to acquire a much better currency or asset.
And as predicted by bitcoiners 6½ years ago [2].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculative_attack
[2] https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/