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Comment by akkawwakka | Hacker News Reader

To correct the quoted assertion...

There is little selection pressure on the virus for the spike proteins to evolve and change. SARS-CoV-2 infects human cells just fine using its current spike protein. [1]

[1]: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

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Yay, then lets see how the spike protein evolves after mass vaccination. In my understanding the vaccination targets exactly that protein so there should be plenty of selective pressure in case mass vaccination takes place

That seems to be an incorrect understanding. Selective pressure is only one of the factors influencing how frequently the virus has mutations. Self correction mechanics in the RNAs replication seem to have a much more stronger effect, since they “correct” the mutations. The article specifically mentions that the timeline for significant mutations is likely in the order of a few years.

A slow mutation rate reduces the rate of change if all other variables are equal but increasing the selection pressure can drive that rate of change higher by clearing the field of competitors and providing only one clear path to success.

Thanks for that Nature news feature, it summarized the research on SARS-CoV-2 mutations quite well.

We’ll have to watch for signs of selection pressure as more and more of us get vaccinated to recognize the spike protein. Hopefully SARS-CoV2 mutates too slowly to escape the vaccines, or can only escape with sharply reduced infectivity and virulence.

It’s mentioned in the nature article:

> Studies of common-cold coronaviruses, sampled across multiple seasons, have identified some signs of evolution in response to immunity. But the pace of change is slow, says Volker Thiel, an RNA virologist at the Institute of Virology and Immunology in Bern. “These strains remain constant, more or less.”

So there seems to be a pretty good chance that this won’t really be an issue.

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