With the UK gone that means that voice is much weakened and to some extent countries like Germany will have to make more concessions to France as there's less of a counterweight in the other direction.
Whether this is "beneficial for the EU" depends on if you think increased integration is a good thing or not. If you are fully signed up lover of the European project then it is probably good, but if you're leery of further integration then it is probably bad.
Do you mean an anti-EU-expansion agenda? If so I totally agree: as someone who quite likes the EU but doesn't favour further integration, it was good to have the UK tempering any efforts in that direction.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/uk-no-long...
Edit: There was quite ridiculous scare mongering in the UK media at the time about Bulgaria and Romania. No doubt part of the general trend that eventually led to Brexit.
I don't think current EU leaders really have any long-term plan, they just keep on steering in the same direction. Can be good or bad depending on your perspective.
Eastern Europeans can look for jobs in their home countries as well as in Britain. British folks, on the other hand, don't really get any more in the way of job opportunities unless they speak Romanian or Polish. So you have a situation where you have increased competition without increased opportunity.
When it comes to Easter Europeans, they need to have the skills to get the job in first place(Polish don't get the jobs because of their Polishness), they must be able to speak some English in addition to one or two languages that they already know and they must have the capital to move to UK(Usually means years of savings).
If the British are having hard time to compete with Eastern Europeans they need to look into their education system. The government as the first step in HR will help with reducing the competition but in the same time that means that UK companies will have less options in hiring which is likely to reduce the output.
In my opinion, companies should be allowed to hire whoever they want and work visa or nationality is not a skill, just blunt regulatory barrier for voter distribution.
In Turkey there used to be the argument against Women working, they said professional women are making man unemployed or underpaid causing social problems. It's not that different from the argument that Polish employment are causing British social problems. What about doing better job than an immigrant who can barely speak yor language? But no, they banning competition is easier.
Maybe we should have laws to prevent a race to the bottom on long commutes, living away from family, or having everyone in a household work, just as we have laws to prevent a race to the bottom on working hours or safety.
>Maybe we should have laws to prevent a race to the bottom on long commutes, living away from family, or having everyone in a household work, just as we have laws to prevent a race to the bottom on working hours or safety.
I agree that it creates problems and, we can have safeguards like that. The point is, the safeguards should be same for everybody if we are aiming for merit based employment.
Sure, go ahead and implement ban for 12 hour work days but don't do it on nationality/race/gender base. Of course you can have exceptions for certain groups(like women who give birth to a child can have special benefits) but blanket bans for based on those is simply not O.K. if you want to have a fair society.
On the other hand, you may not want to have a fair society or fair means a different thing. I understand that there are different ideologies who would advocate different structures in the benefit of a certain race/gender/social status. Racism, sexism, classism are not novel ideals.
Of course that's just the EU budget. The advantage that all countries but particularly France and Germany (and, for another couple of weeks, the UK) get from frictionless trade are enormous.
https://m.bpb.de/nachschlagen/zahlen-und-fakten/europa/70580...
The elites will try to impose it from top to bottom, and when they'll encounter resistance they'll of course blame it on populism/Russia malevolence/the electorate being stupid and the like, that is if they'll decide to go to the polls to impose that further integration (which I have very big doubts they will).
But who knows if it would have been in Turkey’s own best interest to become a member state.
A lot of EU states never really wanted Cyprus in until the dispute with the North and with Turkey was resolved. But Greece insisted on Cyprus being allowed in before that, and threatened to block enlargement to other member states if it was not, so the rest of the EU didn't have a choice. There is no equivalent country demanding Ukrainian admission. Even if some EU countries might like Ukraine to join, nobody is going to say "Unless you let Ukraine in, we will veto Montenegro/North Macedonia/Serbia/Albania/Kosovo/etc's admission"
And Russia will quite possibly take the idea of Ukrainian EU membership badly – although exactly how Russia reacts depends on what is the state of EU-Russia relations at that point of time. Given that Ukrainian EU membership is decades away, if it ever happens at all, who knows what state EU-Russia relations may be in by then.
I wonder if further integration will give insight into the common claim that the integration of diverse cultures in the US emerges many kinds of challenges other more homogeneous nations face in a much more muted fashion. I'm not swayed by that claim standing alone, since with metrics compiled along linguistic rather than genetic diversity axes (arguably a larger determinant of culture influences) [1], the US ranks around middle of the pack among nations.
What I suspect is happening is a form of the Resource Curse. Take a large, economically powerful great power (US end of 19th century), add generous immigration and assimilation policies, turn it into a superpower (US post-WW2), and it is possible the ensuing mayhem scramble for financial dominance within that economic windfall vortex (the Resource) creates fault lines in society that find their expression in culture differences. Lots of cultures, lots of differences. I also suspect if it wasn't cultural differences, it would have been some other differences leveraged; the incentives are misaligned to find commonality.
If my suspicions are true, then China and EU would be prudent to decline ascending to a superpower role, multipolar world or not. If this is the real dynamic at work, then the superpower mantle is the ultimate appeal to a nation's people's vanity, containing a hidden poisoned chalice just like a Resource Curse. And would be better served by participating and "leading from below", charting a new direction in nation-state evolution. Some form like more open information sharing with less developed nations on what works but leaving them to their own devices unless they start destabilizing armed foreign adventures of their own, putting effort into a global tide lifting all boats through trade. Perhaps re-directing the centralizing destructive forces of extreme economic prosperity I suspect develop around a superpower into a wider, amortized net of network effects amortizing the prosperity into more internalized relationships into a diffuse commonwealth-style syndicate of powers, perhaps in turn re-directing to Big Hairy Problems like getting off planet. And the US and rest of G20 would be prudent to participate in such an evolution.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_ranked_by_et...
the permanent triangulation between France, Germany, and the UK in itself was harmful to the EU. It's always been a problem for us (speaking as a German citizen) that we were torn between pro-integration and sovereignty.
At the end of the day the EU can only work if France and Germany, realistically being by far the two dominant countries in the union, have a clear, common vision rather than obstructing the institutions. With the UK out of the window I actually see this lack of choice as positive, because it finally forces resolution of the question where the EU should go.
What I'm saying is, nothing that is bad for France and good for Germany or vice versa is good for either one of us in the long run.
Edit: I’ve tried to make a faithful argument. Please explain instead of downvoting.
Those are two quite separate concerns. Much of mainland Europe, France and Germany especially, want to build the institutions and integration that will prevent another war, even if it costs them economically. Simple geography means that's always been less of a concern for the UK.
The EU started as a peace project, and I think it makes most sense to regard it as fundamentally that, even now. It is an implementation device for peaceful cooperation with your neighbours. It's an endless series of contracts and treaties that provide benefits from good neighbourship.
If you accept that view, the EU's view of Northern Ireland in the Brexit negotiations becomes obvious. It's not about solidarity with the member country Eire, it's about keeping the peace (which the Irish also want, yes).
That loop leads to no insight. Perhaps thinking along those lines is frustrating and the frustration makes you blame the current system, but blaming also won't help with insight or understanding.
I am not blaming the system as a whole. It just is. I was more taking issue with (reacting against) and questioning the motives and sources of people's reaction to the system and its big players. I was trying to show that these motives and sources are similar to those of both the big players which they are reacting to (UK), and also those which they leave out (continental EU, Greece).
Some motives may be moral, but it should not be forgotten that these motives correlate with the interests of a wider group. For many people alone, being immoral correlates directly with negative personal interest.
This is not to forget that people's reactions interact with the wider system bidirectionally.
Edit: without forgetting the underlying economic motives of all parties, in which moral arguments do play a part due to their ability to influence actions.
That's why I think we need more integration; to me, the freedom and security of European citizens is synonymous with European cooperation and integration. Together, we've one of the biggest armies and economies of the world, and we stand a chance to mean something on the world stage. This doesn't mean that the current EU is necessarily the right way to achieve this; ironically, I think most of its issues arise from the fact it is not powerful enough, and single states have too much sway in how the union operates, similar to how the USA were when the first Articles of Confederation were written in the XVIII century.
On paper, monetary union has prevented the economic integration from happening. The diverse economies of the EU are diverging; the north is reliant on export markets outside the EU, while the south is destined for decades of internal devaluation, even in a best-case scenario. Does this help social integration, or does it foster mass resentment rooted fundamentally in cultural differences being amplified?
The original purpose of the European Coal and Steel Community was to neutralize the risk of repeating World War II by tying the major continental powers into a commercial union. The ostensible purpose was economic integration, but the ultimate purpose was geopolitical harmony.
In contrast Thatcher envisioned the EU as a purely commercial arrangement, designed to counterbalance the UK's loss of global economic relevance in the face of decolonization. The difference in vision was a major source of conflict between Thatcher and her continental counterparts. They only reached a compromise because Thatcher was concerned about a newly unified Germany having too much power without Britain in the union.
First, being part of a larger whole may have material advantages that are not directly related to money or security. A good example is free travel between countries.
The second point is that people actually believe in their morals. That is not to say that all "moral" arguments are made in good faith - sometimes they are thinly veiled economic (or else) arguments. But people generally believe in their morals. If I - for instance - believe that people are endowed by their Creator of inalienable rights, I may favor institutions that support such rights, and the EU may be more effective at that that nation states. If I believe that all Europeans are brothers and should decide their fate together, I will favor a strong EU. I wager that the reasons most Americans believe that the US should not be split in different regions has very little to do with how much more or less money they would make if the US was to be divided. Don't quite recall Lincoln's speech on the GDP implications of the South secession. Morals matter.
Finally, not everything is zero sum. It is possible that everyone wins from the recovery fund, or that benefits for those that benefit are greater than the losses from those who lose.
I am not sure whether you are claiming that this exists, but having visited and lived in multiple places in the EU (including outside of the UK), I never felt that people had a sense of an EU-wide brotherhood. People are generally quite worried about that sort of thing for obvious reasons, and culture varies sufficiently over the EU to make such a thing difficult. When discussing the influence of people's morals over their arguments over national interests, you also have to consider the context of people's morals: which agents impose them (either explicitly or implicitly) and the motives behind their imposition. I don't mean to use the word "agent" in a necessarily negative tone. An agent could just be your mum. However, when you look at more powerful agents than your mum, such as the education system, Instafacetwit, newspapers and the law, people's morals start to gain a greener hue (in dollars).
Also I fully agree that a subset of players in the environment might all come out in the money.
This is totally a thing. People identify as all kinds of things, and many people identify as Europeans. Hard to put a number on a feeling of identity, though, and hard to tell if it's increasing or decreasing.
If you were referring to membership of the neo nazi organisation/web shop European Brotherhood, which is a thing that apparently exists, I don't think you need to worry about pan-European-nationalism becoming a mass phenomenon (as opposed to separatist nationalism, which is and has always been a mass phenomenon).
Mobility in the EU from East to West may be done mainly for better job prospects, but there are definitely other reasons that people take advantage of free movement.
I do remember having a lot of political discussions with them, though.
Orban was able to change the law that Hungarians outside Hungary's border who don't even pay taxes can vote (just get a small amount of money from Orban).
I already moved my assets to safer places a long time ago, as I'm not too optimistic.
Also, having a worse off UK even if it’s outside the EU is not a good thing for EU countries.
Contrary to what many believe, the global economy is not a zero sum game. For the most part, the UK doing better means the countries it has trade relations with will also do better.
If there is any painful lesson of the last 4 years, it's that the economy might not be zero sum, but the accounting sure feels like it is.
It would be nice to think that someone would benefit even if its not the UK. Sadly I think both the UK and the EU are going to be worse off because of Brexit.
Brexit is a loss for both sides.
I really hope the UK stays together. Brexit or no Brexit, the UK remains a strategic member of Europe the continent, a key trade partner and a positive influence for Europeans, positive even as a competitor -- a baseline of some sorts. This whole breakup ordeal will end up creating fragile trade agreements and increase diplomatic carpet pulling that could trigger public resentment and fuel extremist politicians in the continent.
The possibility of an integrated Ireland and Scotland as new members of the EU could also tip the English towards a very aggressive reset of their political and strategic roadmap, even worse than post-Brexit. I have no idea where to though... The US/Americas? Asia-Pacific? The Singapore of the Atlantic?
Finance is just one criteria.
Most city rankings place Paris pretty close to London.
And don't forget that a good chunk of London's financial prowess is for it serving as turntable between the US and the EU.
This almost exact scenario has previously happened already: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charter_of_Fundamental_Rights_...
(those using mobile Wikipedia app, scroll down to "The British and Polish protocol")
Also:
> Britain was in basically just in for the economic side of the European Communities, and always rejected or scoffed at the idea of European integration
The lecture of other opt-outs tends to confirm that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opt-outs_in_the_European_Union
Lastly:
> authoritarian eastern countries like Hungary and Poland.
While I understand that the situation there is a bit dire by EU standards, calling them authoritarian is an overstatement. They're not Belarus, UAE or NK. Yet...
Here’s what I see as the basic problem. Most countries are ethnostates, including most European countries. The UK is still 80% ethnic British, Germany is still 80% ethnic German, Sweden is 80% ethnic Swedes, etc. Regardless of political differences, they have a strong common bond. Americans don’t realize just how strong this bond is. I’m a Bangladeshi immigrant raised in America. I have almost nothing in common with most Bangladeshis. But my ancestors are buried there and that means a lot.
In the US, there is no common ethnic ties. (No ancestry makes up more than 15%.) As my wife says, America is a “credo nation.” In a way that’s a strength, allowing the country to readily absorb immigrants. On the other hand, that’s basically a political ideology disguised as a national culture. What do Americans that don’t share politics, and don’t have the close ties that come from living in the same geographic area, have in common? Culturally there are large divergences. The United States is the most religious developed country in the world, comparable to Poland or Iran in terms of people who pray daily. But large pockets are as secular as Paris. In fact possibly more so. In France, for example, the cultural Catholicism of French secular society mediates between Paris and the daily churchgoers in the rural areas (https://www.europenowjournal.org/2019/10/02/the-catholic-nes...).
What would happen if people in France got to control abortion or religious laws in Poland? That’s maybe even understating the distinction. France, perhaps as a result of cultural Catholicism, has abortion laws that would be unconstitutional in every US state (generally illegal after 12 weeks). 24 weeks is common in the US, and states like Massachusetts want to make it legal based on a doctor’s judgment up until birth. (However justified, it’s undeniable that law is based on sweeping moral premises regarding when personal autonomy or the judgment of a single expert can override the state’s authority to protect life). What would happen if a court in Brussels had banned schools in Poland or Italy or Spain (or heck, Germany or the Netherlands or the UK) from offering even religious education even on an opt-out basis? Or struck down nearly every country’s abortion laws? Would anyone still want further EU integration?
The US has long papered over these differences with an exaggerated patriotism. Commonality through the belief in the goodness of America, it’s constitution, and its history. That hasn’t broken down completely but it’s breaking down.
America has been more divided before. But the nature of the country was very different back then. In a country where the federal government is tiny and focuses mainly on defense and regulating interstate trade, these differences just don’t mean as much. But that totally changed in the 20th century. FDR killed federalism and fundamentally changed the nature of the country. Meanwhile, the Warren Court inserted the federal government into myriad social issues. Suddenly, the federal government had to power to decide that you couldn’t have prayer in schools and you couldn’t shut down strip clubs. World War II, the post-war economic boom, and the external threat of the Soviet Union provided a common identity and shared purpose for a long time. After the fall of communism, that evaporated.
What’s left country of 330 million people, faced with the same economic challenge all developed countries are facing, but also deep cultural fissures. The nomination of Amy Coney Barrett was a stark example of this. She’s insanely popular among Republicans, with 95% of people approving of her. Democrats, meanwhile, didn’t just attack her judicial philosophy. (A sitting Senator called it just “another way of saying racism, sexism, and homophobia.”) They said she was a character from a dystopian science fiction novel. Whatever your politics you have to appreciate the significance of that. On one hand you have people who see her as a model of an exemplary life—and the values that produce such a person. And on the other hand you have people who see her as an attack on modernity itself.
Now, you obviously have liberals and conservatives in every country, and political and social disagreements. I suspect, though, that the difference between Massachusetts and Louisiana is bigger than between Bavaria and Berlin. Regardless, Germans are still Germans. Americans don’t understand how powerful that bond is, because they don’t have it and don’t realize that maybe they need something else to fill the void.
The problem is that you’re trying to solve a devilishly difficult problem that we don’t want to acknowledge is a difficult problem. When Iraq voted for the first time in 2005, it did so along strictly ethnic/sectarian lines. My home country of Bangladesh seceded from Pakistan because even though we were all brown muslims, they were brown Muslims who spoke a different language. Even Belgium to this day had huge economic disparities between French-speaking regions and Dutch-speaking regions.
We should seek to build a tolerant multi-ethnic society, but that will fail if, under some false belief in the perfectibility of human nature, we don’t acknowledge how hard a thing we are trying to accomplish. You can’t build such a society if your response to people being concerned about the culture in their communities changing is to call them racist. You can’t do it if you pretend that moderate in-group favoritism is some defect among certain white people, rather than a human trait that is displayed equally by Black and brown people: https://tablet-mag-images.b-cdn.net/production/883104fdaad18.... You can’t do it if you blithely kick stools out from underneath society without regard to whether they’re serving some critical function gluing our massively complicated heterogenous society together.
NB Only thing I could think of as being relevant would the working time directive but everyone just opts out of that?
Edit: I did co-found a VC-funded startup in the UK, but not recently, wondering what might have changed!
Oh and now they're losing facilitated access to the whole of EU developers. But I guess that doesn't matter (even though the flood of openings I see on Linkedin, etc)
If you were starting a tech company why would you choose to start a company in a country which appears to be decidedly against the idea of economic cooperation and free trade. A country that is deluded enough to remove itself from one trading block because, apparently, its much stronger on its own.
If your comment refers to some sort of utopia where trade and business is deregulated and capitalists can happily roam in the wild I'm afraid you might be disappointed. The average Brexit voter has significantly more to gain from the welfare state and big government than the current crop of politicians. Regulation isn't going anywhere and is probably going to increase as the government seeks to prop up its finances without the aid of the EU.
I find Brexit an emotive topic, if only because "Project Fear" is and was always going to be "Project Reality".
Also, you say that republicans have fought to reduce reliance on government but in the last 4 years there’s been a big increase in the federal budget to spend more on military. Aren’t they doing the opposite of what you said? And how is that a free economy when tons of new tariffs have been introduced?
I feel sometimes that people don’t realize that the government has been doing the exact opposite of traditional republicans orthodoxy.
I'm speaking about republican citizens, not "republican in name only" politicians, don't conflate the two. Politicians of all parties are guilty of saying and doing different things.
People absolutely realize the government has been doing the exact opposite of what orthodox republicans want, that is what made Trump seem worthy of a dice roll, he campaigned on a bunch of goals that claimed to try and reverse those decisions.Those goals were either thrown out once he realized how difficult it would be to actually accomplish them or thrown out because he never cared to give it a real go. Given the long time government employees that either quit or were fired and the resistance from establishment politicians both D and R I lean towards the first reason.
Indeed the military budget has been increased, that is driven by our need to fight two full-blown wars on two fronts, our military strategy is based on a worst case scenario. That is the goal that is not talked about publicly but is true. We can expect the military budget to continue to increase.
Re tariffs, they are the right strategy. The primary job class that has been reduced is manufacturing. A large chunk of those jobs were lost to China, the only way to bring those jobs back is to make those Chinese government subsidized imports less attractive to buyers. The tariff strategy can work but it looks like we need to tax imported goods that could feasibly be made in the US by 100-300%, only then will you go to Wal-Mart and find that the US Made goods are in the same price range as the Chinese goods. This is the same strategy that Euro zone and Asian countries use to keep their citizens buying local. Our politicians sold us out circa ~1979. The implementation of these tariffs was a half-measure, it takes years to plan/design/build/ a factory and bring those products to market, Trump should have focused on a 20 year plan that both parties agreed to continue after he left office.
All those combine will have strong impact on UK, I live in London, and finance is probably 80% of how UK makes money. Most of the goods are imported, we do not produce anything (I am exaggerating but not far from truth). Just to remind, people voted pro Brexit because of a red bus with a large text saying that each week £350 million goes to EU (which was wrong but hey...) that is £18.2 bn a year. Meaning Morgan Stanley is shifting permanently, with one swift move, 6.5 years ... and heaven know about how many jobs... All that also have combined effect as each person working there feeds many others (builders, bakers, creditors...)
"Remain" side was warning about all this, but unfortunately, people have not listened.
One more reason why is harder to succeed with startup... heavy taxes are for those that are at the begining.
I'm talking about IR35. The sole reason it was created is to fight "a tax avoidance loophole" (not my words) where without the intermediary (limited company) the single person would be an employee instead.
Single-person companies are still free to exist, like other companies. What's no longer permitted is employees pretending to be single-person companies.
IR35 is advertised as fair but in fact it is not as on example of Amazon https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/sep/08/amazon-uk...
Those really big are exempted of taxes, you just need to have enough money and good leverage.
Now, why was contracting good in UK? Because short rotation of contact was helping to increase "salaries" (rates). Permanent employees do not negotiate salaries on regular bases, and what I have experienced that they sitting on the same level for years. Natural tendency in capitalism is to maximize profit for shareholders and minimize all expenses in process. Salaries of permanent employees are expense column.
Why is this bad news for all companies, regardless of higher rates, it is easier to discharge contractors. Having very strong unions in UK, that will not go easy with permanent employees. Meaning startups will have issue to find people on short term bases.
And many more things to cut the long story short... Nothing to do with fairness but as Jean-Baptiste famously declared “the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing.”
That new IR35 changes are bad proof is decision to delay it for one year because of pandemic...
Why should directors be taxed differently from employees.
IR35 is a mess but there was undoubtedly a problem with disguised employment.
At the moment NI is only paid on 'earned income' - Salary & Benefits
Merging it into Income Tax would mean it's also applied to 'unearned income' – savings interest, dividends etc
Would also remove the anomaly that people who reach the state pension age don't pay NI even if they carry on working