> Based on my 25 years in cyber security and responding to incidents, I’ve concluded we are witnessing an attack by a nation with top-tier offensive capabilities.
I wonder what nations possess “top-tier offensive capabilities” today. USA, China, Russia, Israel come to mind. Who else? Is there a list or metric to measure a nation’s cyber attack capabilities?
I would confidently say that the top 50 countries by GDP have a solid offensive capability. Some, like Japan, have very specific interests that don't align with what makes the news.
At some point you start getting in to the territory of Hacking Team, NSO Group, Gamma, VASTech, etc. Effectively combining the resources of many smaller governments in to a for-hire enterprise that can provide near-nation-state capabilities.
Here is a list of well known attributions of groups to get you started: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1H9_xaxQHpWaa4O_S...
Not saying it didn't happen, but it looks like it has become the goto defense in recent times.
so usa, russia, china, poland, ukraine, japan.