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Did they change the number? The comment says one pedestrian death per 200 million miles right now, which is in the right ballpark and gives you a chance of 0.25%

yes I updated the number. Sorry about that.

1 out of 6 traffic fatalities is a pedestrian. Roads are designed poorly, ice exists, cities are built on steep hills, and people walk at night on the side of county highways.

only assuming a random naive model. how careful you are and how dangerous the location also matter.

Yeah, but it's also only counting pedestrian deaths.

25%