How to Escape a Sinking Ship | Hacker News Reader

How to Escape a Sinking Ship

wired.com

303 pointsportobello183 comments

Somewhat tongue in cheek, but still some good advice here:

-- Know your surroundings, specifically where your exits are. The nearest exit may be behind you.

-- Break the rules. Officials may try to deter you from using passages, ladders or stairwells. Ignore them. If you need to kick open a door or pick a lock, do it.

-- Be where the well-connected people are, and look/act the part. Try to blend into the tribe, be a part of the group that's getting out.

Obviously in a modern context, these guidelines don't apply. Ignoring the instructions of flight attendants in a plane evacuation will get you killed. They are trained to evac that plane in 90 seconds. They won't be able to do it if you still have your briefcase, or haven't taken off your shoes as requested.

"Break the rules. Officials may try to deter you from using passages, ladders or stairwells. Ignore them. If you need to kick open a door or pick a lock, do it."

I would say that in general, when a ship is in danger of sinking, hatches are closed and dogged off for a reason, usually to control flooding, so this is a really bad advice. On the other hand, when a hatch is secured, you usually can't open it from one side, so if you are on the side that can lock, you are probably better off looking for another door.

Whats bad for the whole might be better for you.

People in the WTC were told to chill out, no worries, all is well. Screw that — if something hits the fan, I will gtfo.

I was in the Ritz-Carlson in DTLA last year for Anime expo.

Waiting on the third floor for a convention with atleast 200 people just in that one smaller area, all of the sudden, a live voice came over the intercom with instructions to immediately evacuate the building, all but essential staff. In my mind it seemed as serious as if there was an active shooter somewhere.

I was literally the only person in the group to fucking book it to a fire exit. Everybody else was just casually standing in line, like you seriously couldn't make up how serious they made the situation sound and how little just about everybody did to care.

It was over in about 5 minutes, I never heard any explanation as to why it had happened aside from a rumour that somebody was vaping in the lobby and did not leave when asked to. And this is like, the biggest hotel in DTLA, during a massive convention.

Not entirely relevant... but weird ass experience. People react to things strangely.

Don't know about you but in my country they test and test those system relentlessly so you get "boy who cried wolf" situation.

Not sure how to avoid that.

That's when you append "this is not a drill".

In my country they do the drills every year, the day - but not the time is announced in advanced. Everyone knows that they will be checking that everyone gets out, so we all leave and gather in our assigned locations and enjoy a paid break outside. They schedule these for good weather so getting outside is a nice break. This way people take it seriously, but don't panic. We know from experience that someone will be outside with a checklist to make sure we all leave.

There are scientific practices behind the above. I suggest you get your country on board with those so that people take the alarm seriously.

Once I was in the Newark Airport (never again, hopefully) when the fire alarm started going off. As I looked for an exit I noticed nobody was doing anything, and it continued to go off with at high volume with no announcement and no guidance from anyone for a full 20 minutes. I ended up staying because I didn't know what to do and didn't want to miss my flight.

Very few people internalize the OODA loop. I've reacted fast in situations and it saved lives, but I wasn't born that way. I had trained for years as a kid in a program literally called Life Savers[0] which taught swimming in contexts where others are drowning, first aid including CPR, and how to react in situations like burning buildings and downed electrical lines. One of the first things they tell you is that untrained people react to chaos by freezing and that because most people are untrained this collective freeze is enforced by social pressure. So you need to point and yell in order to get people organized and moving. For example, when I was giving mouth-to-mouth to someone I pointed and yelled at one person to get me a medic and they just stared blankly back at me, so I pointed and yelled at the person standing next to them and he jumped into action. It takes focus and leadership, but it's vital during a crisis.

[0] https://lifesaverscanada.com/

Yeah, I grew up with a hobby that basically entailed... extreme hypervigilance, quick decision making, and leadership initiative. Seems to have ingrained itself deeply within me having participated in it somewhat religiously from 10-18. Sometimes I regret it a bit as it's made me pretty much always alert/hyperaware of my surroundings.

Haha, yeah I know what you mean. It also makes it hard to be a passenger in a car with an inattentive or distracted driver.

More than once I've asked someone to stop their vehicle so I could get out and arrange for an alternative transport. Either that or let me drive but no way I'm going to be a passenger in a car that has a driver that isn't on the job.

People in Grenfell tower in UK were also told to shelter in place, that sadly didn't work very well...

Those procedures (plane evacuations, high-rises, ...) are designed for "best" conditions, when an emergency goes by the plan; but when something goes really wrong (plane breaks in two, huge building fire, ...), you better get out of there by any means.

I remember being in Anson, when it was reported a Korean Ferry going to Jeju hit a rock and started taking on water. The captain reported on the radio," everyone stay put." and for the most part they did, even while the captain was escaping the ship. 299 people drowned that day, many of them the local school in Anson. I remember walking past the highschool that very night and seeing the crowd of the bereaved. If more of those people chose to disobey a very strange order on a ship, more would have lived.

It's important to know when a situation has really become an emergency and normal rules like, "listen to the captain even if he doesn't make sense" stop applying. The earlier you are able to recognise that shit has hit the fan and enter emergency rule breaking mode the better.

In everyday life, I definitely notice that people do not take say, fire alarm seriously and act quickly enough. Don't be a deer caught in the spotlight, forge your own path and take these things seriously your life may depend on it (even if its 1% chance that that alarm is a real one).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_MV_Sewol

I’m glad you brought it up but you are doing a great disservice to this tragedy by saying the ferry simply hit a rock.

It was criminally overloaded. There were payoffs for inspections. The CEO had connections to the president and was found dead in a field. There is a lot more to it.

And yes the kids stayed inside the ship, following orders until it was far too late. It still makes me sick.

The link has all the detail in it. I probably should have reviewed, but I am remembering details from the day it happened years ago. For the purposes of keeping the lesson brief, I feel justified.

If I remember correctly, he also tried took a shortcut too because he was running late...

I saw cellphone videos taken inside the ship when this happened. The kids were highspirited and jovial for the circumstances. It was really creepy to watch

> In everyday life, I definitely notice that people do not take say, fire alarm seriously and act quickly enough.

Sounds like the normalcy bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

> In everyday life, I definitely notice that people do not take say, fire alarm seriously and act quickly enough. Don't be a deer caught in the spotlight, forge your own path and take these things seriously your life may depend on it (even if its 1% chance that that alarm is a real one).

Problem with things like fire alarms is they go off _so_ often, yet are almost never a true alarm.

In my experience, it's not even 1%. I've heard fire alarms tested monthly or quarterly for years. My own smoke detector at home used to go off regularly. I've heard literally hundred of "THE BUILDING IS ON FIRE EVACUATE OH SHIT" alarms, and never once seen even a small fire.

Well, that's a lie, I lit a reasonably-sized oil fire on my stove top one day (left some good scorch marks on the ceiling and stuff). No alarm went off.

Hell, one time the small apartment building I lived in had the building-wide alarm go off which did convince everyone to vacate--probably because it had never gone off before. I ran a roll-call out on the front lawn and accounted for every unit and had every single person reporting that there was no fire in their unit. The only common areas were the hallways people'd just exited through. The fire department cleared it in about two minutes and told us we could re-enter with the alarms blaring.

I'd be surprised to find someone that, through school fire drills, random smoke detectors, testing and malfunctioning of building alarms, etc have not been totally desensitized to these alerts.

If you get an alert every day from your intrusion detection system saying "SOMEONE'S IN YOUR NETWORK STEALING YOUR FILES!" and never once find that to be the case, eventually you're going to start ignoring the alerts.

That said, yes -- if I smell smoke/see fire, if I'm on a boat and water is coming up around my ankles, I'm not gonna just sit there and die because someone says it's okay.

Is there a better alternative?

The effectiveness of any information source is only as good as its signal to noise ratio. Given a bad S/N, the alarm system is simply not effective. Reduce the noise.

I agree with you. But this is a tricky problem.

The alarms go off because there is smoke - the issue is that the smoke is not dangerous. How do you solve for this? You could set a higher threshold for detection, but this also delays any response to the (very dangerous and urgent) problem.

It's not my experience with fire alarms that they go off without reason at all. Common for apartment buildings is someone smoking under the detector (more often than you think and often they don't realize it they caused the alarm).

I've worked at places that take fire alarms (or chemical hazard alarms) very seriously. If they triggered without proper cause, an investigation was always launched to prevent future false alarms. Because otherwise, hundreds of people can die the one day the alarm goes off for real. They have less than 1 false alert over 5 years.

My father is a licensed fire safety advisor and I've taken a course on fire- and sound-safety during my bachelor thesis. When things go wrong here, people get hurt, hence every alarm should be taken seriously and false alarms need to be prevented at any cost.

I would also point out, if you're sitting in the passenger cabin and water comes up to your ankles, it is likely to late to run. Same for fire coming from under your apartment door. That's why we have alarms.

I think people have become sensitized only in a good way: they don't panic. Instead they think another drill, better get out in a clam orderly manor and counted. It helps that there are enough fires every decade that you hear of one just often enough that you think "better safe than sorry".

That is my observation anyway.

This is such a disaster on so many levels. I would say it is the exception that proofs the rule. Counter would be that cruise ship that sank near Italy where most people were only 32 out of 3,250 people died.

And everyone should listen to the Captain, be it a plane or a ship. Especially in emergency situations.

There is a good book [1], which dives into why some people survive while others don't. One of the main takeaways is to break the rules if required. The other takeaway is to follow your instinct (like a child would).

[1]: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B06VVMN5J2

I've read that book a couple times, it's fantastic. I gave a copy to my brother, a Navy officer, and he agreed.

Follow your instinct like a child would? Every child I know would just freeze and cry for mom.

I don't think they mean to try to anticipate the instincts of a child and act accordingly, but rather that children will be more likely to just do whatever seems right to them, rather than paying so much attention to social conventions and normal-situation rules.

More like follow your instinct like a cat would.

You mean ... tensing up and inching closer to the perceived threat? ;)

Or just sitting down on the middle of the street staring at a car’s bumper while the car is honking.

It’s a wonder my cat is still alive.

When Titanic aired on broadcast TV earlier this year, I was struck by the horror of the situation in a way I hadn't been when it first came out (my being 7-years-old at the time might have something to do with that, of course). I came to similar conclusions at the time: situational awareness (especially listening to what the people around you are saying and reading between the lines), willingness to break rules, willingness to fall in line, humility and thoughtfulness enough to know when to do which. Also, an understanding that rich people will cause catastrophic failure and skate out scot-free; accept that, yes, in their hubris, they did do the unthinkable and now your little corner of the world is headed towards oblivion. Get out.

9/11 also comes to mind. The people who got out were lucky enough to be on lower floors and realized that none of the assurances held water. They ignored shelter-in-place orders and left.

I wouldn't draw much conclusions from a true disaster over 100 years ago (in which case the evacuation itself wasn't as bad, given the total lack of safety procedures and the timing) and a case in which nobody believed the buildings would go down. In both cases, rules have been revised, e.g. the closed doors between classes on the Titanic are not a thing anymore.

I think the point is to realize that the unthinkable could be happening to you. We don't know until we know, and by then it may be too late.

I've read in one of the 9/11 anniversary articles that majority of the people that survived from 2 WTC were the ones occupying offices with the windows facing 1 WTC where you could witness constant barrage of jumpers. Many of them mentioned that when they saw them something instinctively pushed them to get away from the place.

Like when people in the WTC were told to stay put.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/sep/16/september11.us...

Around 2015 or so I audiobook'd the book "The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes and Why" by Amanda Ripley [2009].

This book covers similar topics that you do in your comment. One is from a chief security employee in the Twin Towers, along the lines of "Never run to the roof". Which he did to try to save more people, which IIRC he didn't//couldn't.

In other related stories, taking note of emergency exists whilst boarding an airplane [and similar for other folks in similar situations] noted out better survival over others. "Triangle crowding" at exits is also mentioned, which is partly why folks in charge scream "single file! walk do not run" at you as everyone rushes for the door to escape.

The distinction is also made between "flight" and "fight" and the often left-out "freeze" response to in-time disaster.

I found it a worth-while read.

>Break the rules. Officials may try to deter you from using passages, ladders or stairwells. Ignore them. If you need to kick open a door or pick a lock, do it.

I learned this lesson on 9/11, as a high school student in lower Manhattan. We were told to sit in our homerooms and wait, while smoke (and god knows what else) enveloped the building. Eventually we were shuffled out of the building and told to keep going north, left entirely to our own devices. I completely understand their reaction, but that doesn’t make it a good one.

The authorities don’t necessarily know any more than you do. Their interest in maintaining order is not necessarily aligned with your interest in your own safety. When the shit hits the fan, don’t wait for permission to protect yourself.

[obviously this is situational. I’m not advocating climbing over others to be first out the plane or etc]

Someone I knows knows someone who worked in the second WTC building to be hit. After the first strike, their employer's plan was for everyone to stay in place, but they got the heck out of there. Saved their life.

I saw a man interviewed on TV who was in a very similar situation. He just figured to get out even though there was no real understanding of what had happened to the first tower or knowledge of a threat to the second. The manager gave stay put and calm instructions while we wait for more information, and he just thought to leave via the fire escape stairwell and take the rest of the day off. Amazing.

In a situation like that, you only have a choice between really bad options. If everyone ran for the door, people would likely have been hurt or killed due to trampling. If everyone panics, you are guaranteed to have a bad outcome. In your case, staying in place might have allowed the dust to (literally) settle by the time you left the building. Obviously the people in the 2nd tower had a different outcome.

Like I said, I understand why they did what they did. That doesn’t make it the right call. The point is that they didn’t know what to do, so they defaulted to doing nothing.

> In your case, staying in place might have allowed the dust to (literally) settle by the time you left the building.

It didn’t.

Sure, there are high-profile cases like 9/11 or the (discussed yesterday(?) on HN) Grenfell Towers fire where getting the hell out ASAP is your best option.

But the usual instructions by the authorities for a fire in a high-rise is the correct action in the vast majority of cases. That is, close doors and windows, put some damp clothes under the door, stay put and wait for the fire department. Correctly designed and built high-rises are pretty well compartmentalized, and the probability of you succumbing to the heat and noxious fumes in the stairwell if you try to escape, is a lot higher than the probability that the fire department is not able to quickly bring the fire under control.

Yes. The worst civilian loss of life in Britain in WW2 was a crush that occurred at Bethnal Green station on a stairway down to an air raid shelter. A woman tripped and fell on the stair and people above carried on pushing to get down and the bodies piled up. 173 people died. There wasn’t even a stampede. I think that’s why we have the shelter in place rule for fires in the U.K. In more modern buildings there is a staged evacuation which is done automatically by the fire alarm system where it sets off alarms to evacuate the fire floor, then the floor above, then floor below then all the floors above the fire at intervals followed by all the floors below. In an office block with 5000 people in it you wouldn’t need much to recreate the Bethnal Green disaster no matter how much stair capacity you have. In Grenfel the staged evacuation was meant to be done manually by the fire brigade as it was a 1960’s building with no whole building alarm system but for some reason this happened too slowly. Possibly because the escape stair was not pressurised as would be required by modern regulations and the smoke seals on fire doors had been compromised during the refit and smoke got into the stair so the fire brigade felt they needed BA to evacuate people safely from the stairs, I’m not sure.

So if everyone in the ship or the building or plane or whatever acts entirely in their own interests in almost all situations it ends up worse for everyone, but there has to be some leadership somewhere and the systems need to be checked and practiced regularly.

> There wasn’t even a stampede.

Stampede is largely a misnomer. People die in crushes when the people in back don't know what's happening in front. This allows density increases until the people in the back become victims themselves.

During the Station Fire[0] there was a choke point at the front door. People fell on their way to the exit and other evacuating people, unaware of the situation tried to get out of the building. Few people knew about an exit near the point of ignition.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Station_nightclub_fire

As an extreme example I'm reminded of this south korean ferry disaster where 304 passengers died:

> As Sewol began sinking, the ferry's intercom system started ordering the passengers to stay put, alleging that moving was dangerous. The announcements were made by a communication officer, Kang Hae-seong, who had not consulted the manual before the broadcast. The announcements began broadcasting by at least 8:52 a.m. and continued even when water began flooding passenger compartments. Other crew members corroborated this order, instructing passengers to stay put. Captain Lee also instructed passengers to stay put and did not change the order even as he was leaving the ship.

> The first emergency call was made by Choi Duk-ha, a Danwon High School student aboard the ferry. At 8:52 a.m., he called the national emergency service number and reported to the Jeollanam-do fire station that Sewol was capsizing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_MV_Sewol?wprov=sfla...

It's a well-known issue in some countries: authorities are never questioned even if the decisions are obviously wrong.

For Korea, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Cargo_Flight_8509#I...

Which might also explain why they beat Covid faster and more effectively, on the other hand.

They haven't beaten Covid. Their current curve is quickly approaching the spring numbers, expected to hit the February peak next week.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/1...

You're right, although I'm measuring by EU and US standards. I admit I had more like Vietnam, Taiwan and China in mind, than South Korea, thanks for the link.

Deaths per million in Korea is a factor of 80 lower than in the US. Even if they return to previous highs they are way outperforming the US.

For sure but there's a common misconception bundling South Korea together with countries that have actually beaten it, like New Zealand and Vietnam. South Korea is doing great by any Western standard but they haven't beaten it, yet.

Far lower rates of obesity, better health infrastructure, and a much, much higher willingness to wear masks and defer to the elderly (who are most at risk).

> New cases reported Monday exceeded 600 for the second day in a row, bringing the total to more than 38,000, with about 550 deaths.

South Korea's population is around 50 million. Their total deaths from Covid are similar to the daily death rate during the first peak in the UK, a similarly sized Western country.

> When the captain tried to bank the plane to turn left, his ADI showed it not banking, but the comparator alarm sounded repeatedly. The first officer did not say anything regarding the alarm and told the captain that the aircraft should turn at 1.5 miles according to the distance measuring equipment. The older and more experienced flight engineer did call out "bank" four times in 19 seconds, but the captain ignored his warnings, continued to ignore the chiming alarm, made no verbal response, and actually continued to increase the left bank angle. At 18:38, 55 seconds after take-off, Flight 8509's left wing dragged along the ground, then the aircraft plunged into the ground at a speed of between 250 and 300 knots, in a 40° pitch down and 90° left bank attitude. The aircraft exploded on impact.

ouch

> Captain Lee also instructed passengers to stay put and did not change the order even as he was leaving the ship.

This reads like SpaceBalls.

Having lived in Mexico City in the 80s till 2000s, there is 3 simple rules during earthquakes: don't run, don't yell, don't push. When you feel a strong one, the fourth rule is don't follow the first three and save your life. That saved mine in 1985

Why the rule against yelling?

Spreading panic perhaps? Panic is not helping in situation like that. Never felt major earthquake but that's what I'd hate.

Because it’s annoying if everyone starts yelling for minor earthquakes?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Rescorla#September_11,_20...

That's the tricky part. Official safety rules are there for a reason, that is because by the best knowledge they work. 9/11 was special because nobody expected the towers to go down. The Sewol was man-made disaster. In most other cases, following orders as a passenger and official safety rules will safe your life. It will also maximize the number of lives saved.

And even if authorities don't necessarily know more than you, they do have the necessary training and procedures. Something simple bystanders don't have.

My take on parent's comment that the people in charge had no more clue what they were doing than the rest of the group.

It's an issue solved by training on both parts (evacuation leaders and evacuating people), and also why fire drill need to be taken seriously, or at least be an occasion to thinking hard about the building we're in, the exits, and how it looks like when everyone is following that path.

Even in unforseen situations, that's where we all end up anyway.

> 9/11 was special because nobody expected the towers to go down.

Even so, universally, the safest choice in a disaster is to not be where the disaster is ASAP.

Similarly, in a mass shooting, "run away" is the first piece of advice. Hiding or fighting is only when that option isn't available.

The safest choice would be to stay put and wait for help. Always. Unless staying put is no option due to a clear and immenant threat. Because running away in case of an active shootin might put you in someones line of fire. Running down the stairs in a burning building might expose you to smoke and fumes. Or even fire, in case you do not know if you are above or below the fire. Or it might block emergency personel from reaching others needing help or from reaching the, e.g. fire.

That being said, I think there was a discussion regarding the evacuation of burning skyscrapers after 9/11.

This is false. Especially in the active shooter case, where staying put is explicitly discouraged by all professional training on the matter: https://www.ready.gov/public-spaces

> Seek safety. Getting away from the attacker is the top priority.

> If you can’t evacuate, cover and hide.

This is generally true in most disaster scenarios. Staying is often "dying". If you are in a burning building, you should leave the burning building. If you are on a sinking ship, you actually should leave the sinking ship rather than go under inside it.

Where ever the disaster is, get away from it.

YMMV. A friend of mine was recently in a fire, and several of her neighbors died because they tried to leave using the stairs, then succumbed to smoke inhalation. Everybody who stayed in their flats survived.

I think it's awfully situational, but in the case of a fire, if you live in a house with decent fire standards (thick doors, fire-retardant insulation), I think you might be safer staying inside and waiting for a truck to come with a ladder.

I would probably leave my flat through the window, with a rope. It's not terribly high, so if I mess up, I'd probably just break my legs.

There was also Grenfell Tower in the UK, where the fire brigade told everyone to stay in their flats (apartments) as the building caught fire around them: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/16/london-fire-chie...

> The authorities don’t necessarily know any more than you do.

In your example, no, but in the plane example, you bet your sweet bippy they do. As you said, situational.

What I found really disturbing is the 'flight or fright' reaction of people that find themselves in these life or death situations. We all think we will act to save our lives, acting rationally, but apparently there's many people that just freeze in shock, unable to move or do anything even when their lives depend on it.

Think I first saw this in a sunken ferry disaster movie, based on real events, where the family says to the son something like "You go, boy", while they stayed to drown with the ship. Really scary.

That is very well applies to the situation when a a societal ship sinks, like say collapse of USSR and the socialist system. Probably also applies in the context of civil wars, ethnic conflicts, etc.

Ignoring the instructions of flight attendants will allow you to get out with your briefcase, but may get others killed. That's the real issue - sacrificing something to help others. As we have seen during the last year, some are not even willing to put up with the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask (which they inflate with horror stories to rationalize it) to help others, so forgive me if I sound cynical...

The most important guideline is:

Know the safety rules better than the staff, and know WHY those safety rules are in place. Staff are people, and people do stupid things all the time. Unless you know why the rules exist, you're likely to make things worse by disregarding them, and you're guaranteed to amplify any staff screw-ups by following their instructions blindly.

> Obviously in a modern context, these guidelines don't apply.

That's not always true. Look at the Grenfell Tower fire in London. The official advice was for residents to stay in their flats, not panic, and definitely not rush out the building. But of course that was completely the wrong advice and it was much better to follow your instincts and get out than to stay put.

> They won't be able to do it if you still have your briefcase, or haven't taken off your shoes as requested.

I strongly believe the training to get the plane evacuated in 90 seconds includes a bunch of people doing exactly this.

Better to train realistic scenarios, and there will always people who do unhelpful things. Doesn't mean you should feel free to add yourself to that list. :)

I once read an article about a guy who repeatedly managed to sneak into places at sporting events he shouldn't be: Down on the field to celebrate with the players that just won the championship, onto the press or VIP-suite level, even into locker rooms. He basically just did what you describe above.

I was about to scroll past this submission when I had a sudden attack of superstition that, if I don't read it, I will eventually find myself on a sinking ship in the middle of the ocean and curse myself for not reading the damn HN article.

It's like when you're studying for a test and fail to study that one topic cause you think it's never gonna show up, only to find that not only did it show up, it ended up being 20% of the entire test.

Oh wow I do not miss school.

There are some things you should study even though you will never need it. Getting out in a fire, first aid/CPR, earthquake procedures... You need to know these well just in case.

The Atlantic'a piece about the sinking of the ferry Estonia contains some interesting pieces of information for anybody who might like to survive a sinking in the future. It might also put you off getting on ships.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/05/a-sea-s...

This was an incredible piece of writing. Thanks for posting the link!

I love vivid, harrowing writing like this.

Despite seeing James Cameron's Titanic, I never pictured the ships themselves as being such an obstacle to survival.

This makes it feel so real. It's haunting.

Do you have anything more like this?

If you can accept Planes instead of Ships, Mayday is a good show that guides on through the accident investigations of plane crashes (from a short video of the crash with details removed, through the investigation process and then finally a short section on the recommendations issued)

It is the same show, but it has different names: Air Crash Investigation

Also (according to Wikipedia): Air Emergency (National Geographic Channel, U.S.) Air Disasters (Smithsonian Channel, U.S.) Mayday: Air Disaster (Weather Channel, U.S.)

My TV Organizer names it Mayday, hence I use that name.

Sure, and Mayday is the original name. I was simply trying to be helpful to others who might have trouble finding it.

Some people find it scary, but I find it reassuring. The investigations always show an insane number of things that had to go wrong in a very specific way for the crash to happen. No engineering is perfect and things are going to fail, but watching those things shows how effective the swish cheese safety method is for 99.999whatever% of flights that never crash.

The author of that article, William Langewiesche, has written several others in that vein:

- https://www.vanityfair.com/news/business/2014/10/air-france-...

- https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/inside-el-faro-the-w...

- https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/01/the-mecca-stampede-t...

- https://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2009/06/us-airways-200906

- https://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2009/01/air_crash200901

Wow. Incredible story and far better than the WIRED clickbait drivel that this HN post links to. Thanks for sharing this.

Good, but the numerous references to the ocean, 14 of them, indicate sloppy writing. Baltic is a relatively small, shallow and closed sea. It can be fierce, but ocean it is not.

That's misguided pedantry, I think. Most seas are a subset of the ocean, and the Baltic is an arm of the Atlantic.

And in addition, the article was published in The Atlantic.

Pedantry? Perhaps. Baltic Ocean, no way! No Atlantic Sea, either.

Not to be too pedantic, but there is no connection between the Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea. The North Sea separates them.

Seas tend to be worse than oceans from what I can tell. In the deep ocean there is plenty of water, and little to hit. Thus even when things go wrong there is plenty of forgiveness for error. Shallow seas not so much, off course by a few meters can be fatal. Of course there are exceptions - as an expert in sailing not me for details.

https://onse.fi/estonia/ here's the text of the final report of the accident. It's a thoroughly written document, recommended reading for anyone interested in the details.

Chilling quote:

> Thiger heard a clear comment from only one passenger, a man nearby, who joked, "Ha! Now we have sailed against an iceberg!" and took another gulp of beer. The singing continued unabated.

Surely, this couldn't be happening to us!

I continued reading, what a rabbit hole. Apparently the cause of MS Estonia's sinking, as documented in that Atlantic article, is bogus.

New evidence points to a submarine collision and tampering of evidence in the initial 1994 investigation:

* https://news.err.ee/1140442/head-of-ms-estonia-investigation...

* https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/04/maybe-now-well...

The whole shebang, with "crazy conspiracy theories", ridiculed for decades for claiming a hole in the hull and weapons transported onboard, now vindicated. What a mess.

This is an amazing read, highly recommend it if you are scrolling past

Step 1. Don't be a man

Step 2. Don't be poor.

97% of First Class women and 87% of female crew members survived the sinking of the Titanic.

https://www.anesi.com/titanic.htm

Step 1 don’t be poor. (Most poor died by default.)

Step 2 don’t be a man.

Step 3 steal a child’s clothing and hope it fits

According to the resource linked to, third class women had a higher survival rate than first class men. Not that it would necessarily turn out that way now.

> Not that it would necessarily turn out that way now.

I doubt it would, and that is a good thing. The whole “women and children” thing was part of the whole “women are weak creatures that need to be looked after and protected like children” mentality.

I thought it was more of a "protect the future" sentiment. It's probably shades of both.

I doubt that very many of the women passengers on board the Titanic were objecting to the chauvinism inherent in "women and children first". In time of life-or-death crisis, if you don't have a "women and children first" ethic, you will most likely have an "every man for himself" attitude, in which case you will end up with a very male-favorable survival rate, as bigger and yes physically stronger men shove women and children out of the way to get to the lifeboats.

> if you don't have a "women and children first" ethic, you will most likely have an "every man for himself" attitude

The fact that it has to be women and children to you is exactly what I was talking about. That women were, and I guess to certain extent still are, put into a separate category of lesser capability. “Save the children” is a perfectly valid alternative to “every man for himself”. Or children and them parents first. There are multiple ways we could have been “noble” in the face of tragedy, and part of what shaped the idea we did end up with stemmed from a sexist paternalistic idea about adult women.

http://www.icyousee.org/titanic.html

according to this:

Survival rate first class men and women: 62% Survival rate women, steerage: 49%

So clearly, it was better to be rich than female.

I see third class women 49% survival, first class men (excluding servants and crew) 32%, in the source you link to?

It reminds me of today's Twitter. Faster way to get relevance is to be a white, rich, western woman. Most people dont like to be reminded of that inconvenient truth so let's leave Bill Burr to say it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVMmiltdp1U . As the famous saying goes: “If you are going to tell people the truth, you better be funny or else they’ll kill you.”

I was curious how realistic the advice to dress in your finest would be, so...

In the US, at least, union wages would have brought in $20-30 or so per week. [1] Looking through [2], you could get a whole gentleman's outfit for roughly $50 or so. Even still, you'd be spending 2-3 weeks' wages on a single set of clothing - not to mention that you'd need somewhere to store all that, and you'd probably also need additional stuff to maintain it so that it looked half-presentable for your daring escape.

It's much more likely that, as someone in steerage, even your "finest" wouldn't have passed muster for the keenly class-conscious Brits on the upper decks. The fabrics and cuts would be different, you'd be missing fashionable accessories and key pieces of the outfit, nothing would be tailored, and everything would be in worse wear. (Not to mention your lower-class accent and diction would likely give you away, unless you'd somehow had the benefit of a pricey elocution tutor.)

[1] https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/union-scale-wages-hours-... [2] https://vintagedancer.com/1900s/edwardian-1910s-historical-m...

Sure, you're not going to look the part of an upper class individual. The important part is to look as little out-of-place in the middle of a rush to the lifeboats as you possibly can. Nobody is watching THAT closely.

"Up and out." Nothing to do with Titanic, but based on reading disaster articles on Wikipedia, my advice is, if a ship you are on takes on a noticeable list, get to the high side immediately. If the list worsens, get outside on the deck. Beyond a certain point, a list has a way of accelerating, and interior corridors become canyons and floors become walls, dooming everyone on the low side.

Benji Smith, who used to hang out on Joel's software forum, was on the Costa Concordia with his new wife when it ran aground and sank. Being on the high-side of the ship helped them survive, using a rope they found to climb down the hull. Getting to the deck before the corridors became impassible because of the list was critical.

> Then, an empty wine bottle started to move, creeping inch by inch toward the edge of the table as though possessed by a tiny, timid ghost. When it reached the precipice, it hesitated for a moment of contemplation and then tipped over the edge, thumping down on the carpet and rolling under the bed.

https://www.amazon.com/Abandoned-Ship-intimate-Concordia-shi...

Not to diminish the tragedy, but only 27 of the over 3,000 passengers died, so the odds were pretty strongly in their favor.

From looking at the Wikipedia article on the Costa Concordia, 99% of the people on board survived. That sounds like, in this instance, no special skill(s) nor awareness were really needed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costa_Concordia_disaster

Moving from the relatively comfortable interior and heading to the high side, out in the elements, can be a pretty terrifying feeling. IMO one wants to resist it. The feeling of moving toward exposure on the outside feels kind of wrong. I only experienced it once but it was enough for a lifetime.

"How to Escape a Sinking Ship and Live"

Jump off your small boat.

Teach your kids previously to swim well and learn to remove their clothing while in the water and all the other techniques of water safety like treading and floating. Have life jackets and EPIRB etc.

For the unlikely chance it's a big ship, it's probably a ferry in a developing country. Again, escape is probably not as important as what to do after jumping off.

For the very unlikely chance you are deep in the bowels of a ship. It's normal escape procedure. Follow instructions

If you want to beat follow instructions, you are training for a very unlikely event but it would go to other case studies, you need to break with pre-trained ideas.

For instance in one fire most people died because they delayed to pay for their meal. But then there's plenty more stories of people doing runners after false alarms. So you might survive that one in 100,000 event, but at what cost.

For a more generalisable solution:

- Pick a ship with robust safety measures, procedures, and equipment, sailing in favourable conditions, if at all possible.

- Rehearse evacuation. Drilling and mentally noting escape routes and pitfalls makes successful performance during an actual emergency the more likely.

- Maintain situational awareness. Things can go pear-shaped remarkably quickly. Numerours modern shipping disasters have transpired in a few minutes, or less. (Edmund Fitzgerald, Costa Concordia, MV Sewol, Estonia, El Faaro, ...) Size alone is no guarantee at all of safety, and can work catastrophically against you if below-decks.

- Easier said than done: avoid panicking, and avoid both panicky and oblivious people. If you're good at keeping a clear head and useful goal focus during crisis, so much the better. Even if you do, others panicking or ignoring clear dangeer can kill you (usually along with themselves). The aspect of Titanic dramatisations I've found most compelling is noting who realises when that the ship is in fact doomed, and how they respond. Some early, some late, some never, some quietly, some loudly, some selflessly, some selfishly.

Once off the stricken vessel, survival depends on keeping your head above water, literally, and remainung uninjured, warm, dry (generally), hydrated and fed (if rescue is not immediate), healthy, and rescued or returned to hospitable land. Survival even in very cold water is generally not an immediate threat. Drowning, injury from falling debris or flotsam, and hyperthermia are the most immediate risks. Past a day or so, hydration, food, and exposure become more critical. Shipwreck survivors have lasted months on rations, fish, and rainwater, in instances.

Signalling your location or attracting attention through orange equipment (many rescue evacuation craft, survival suits, life jackets), flags, flares, beacons, strobes, radio locators, mirrors, or fires (avoid burning your craft), etc., help.

Obnoxious nitpick: everyone on El Faro died. Crew had plenty of warning they were sailing into a hurricane, but the captain did it anyway. For me the main takeaway from that sinking was "don't be on a cargo ship that sails directly into a hurricane".

NTSB report: https://dms.ntsb.gov/public/58000-58499/58116/598645.pdf

William Langewiesche piece: (Also wrote the Estonia piece upthread) https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/inside-el-faro-the-w...

My point was more that when the end came to the El Faro, it most likely came quite suddenly. There were numerous opportunities to avoid disaster.

Several other factors also appied.

The stories of ships vanishing without a trace, likely due to rogue waves, are quite chilling.

MS München (1978) comes to mind, though it seems likely to have survived initial damage for up to 33 hours:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MS_München

The Edmund Fitzgerald seems likely to have gone under in minutes if not seconds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Edmund_Fitzgerald#Hypothese...

"avoid both panicky and oblivious people"

That piece of advice can be generalized to any survival situation.

Much of the advice can be.

Those around you contribute directly to your own survival, both positively and negatively. The case of the Sewol involved both poor response by crew and possibly excess complaisance by passengers (as reported in media).

Footage from onboard. Those shown and recording would be among the 304 souls lost.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=MkyFbcnIQV4

https://youtube.com/watch?v=3Qq4jVt-U0U

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MV_Sewol

Speaking of generalisable solutions – military strategy has a concept called the OODA loop, invented to give a roadmap to survive combat: you observe a situation, orient yourself in it based on past experience and knowledge of what's happening, decide on a plan, and act. All the while, you process what's happening and use that feedback to possibly change your decisions.

It strikes me as a generic but useful way to think about surviving unexpected situations. I've thankfully not been in a position to implement it, but since learning about it I have found myself doing a bit more practice (both mentally and in real life) and trying to be a bit more prepared for dangerous situations.

OODA (obseve, orient, decide, act) is good and I'm a fan.

Training, drilling, and practicing teaches you what to observe, how to orient, how to decide, and how to act. At the least these should be familiar. If you're frequently dealing with emergencies ... either find a safer environment or make the responses second nature.

A key benefit of OODA over rote drilling is recognising when a trained response is not improving the situation. Often victims pursue a single tack even after it is clearly worthless. OODA, executed correctly, allows an opportunity to reset, reassess, and try an alternative tack.

The observe-process-decide-act loop is common to any systems, control, or cybernetics process, and quite useful

Opened the link thinking the article was about how to move on from a company that's probably going to shut soon. Learned something nonetheless.

That would actually be a really useful article - most of us have been in that boat at some point in our careers.

I thought it was going to be about cutting ties with a political party.

For some wierd reason I was thinking it would be about escaping a company that was in disarray!

Step 1: don’t burn bridges. Even in Silicon Valley, you are likely work with these people again.

Step 2: make sure you have contact info for the best and brightest and they have yours

Step 3: contact any recent people who left. They may be hiring at their new gig

Step 4: make sure you have submitted all your reimbursable expenses

Step 5: if the company starts to list, get to the high side, fast. (Couldn’t resist :)

Step somewhere: get all your dental work done, a new pair of glasses and as much prescription meds as you can.

And vote for the politicians who want to pull the country into this century when it comes to medical expenses and policies.

Mind you, my dental work is only covered up until €500 a year, glasses are entirely my own expense (you can get a tiny amount from health insurance, but only once every three years, and you need to take out premium insurance to be eligible), and prescription meds vary; anything off the pre-approved list require you to pay the difference.

I really expected this to be metaphorical from the title. And not just any sinking ship, but the most famous sinking ship in history. Fascinating, but hard to generalize!

Hair raising. Thoroughly enjoyed reading the article. Now someone needs to make this into a game :)

Should have been titled "How to escape the Titanic using your seer git to know everything that's going to happen down to the minute (in which case you probably wouldn't have boarded the ship at all)". But interesting anyway.

And yet your odds are still pretty bad!

For anyone interested in more modern days example, you can check up Kevin Escoffier and his miraculous escape (I think it was ±2 minutes between his boat splitting in a half and him entering rescue craft) during vendee globe race. Link for more info: https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/other-sports/dramatic-rescu...

https://archive.is/MjX9y

Failed the “I’m am not a robot” test.

Drowning is not a pleasant way to die. I drowned as a child and lived to tell the tale, but it's not an experience I would not recommend. At all. If you've determined that you won't survive your shipwreck, you might want to consider a faster way to die.

What about burning? is it nice instead?

> but it's not an experience I would not recommend

That was obviously a typo. Too late to edit.

Too bad the author didn't discuss how to make a raft from deck chairs. Always bring 50' of para cord and a compliant knife. Perhaps a discussion of what sort of non-obvious cutting instrument would be good to bring. Nail clippers? A plastic knife with a ceramic edge? Like one of these: https://www.osograndeknives.com/catalog/fixed-blade-non-dete...

I would add a marine survival/immersion suit to the list as well.

As ships are now carrying more life boats, life rafts and vests than passengers it would be better to know where these things are. That being said, I prefer being on deck anyway. Not for safety, but for the view.

I'd hate to spend time making a raft from deck chairs that don't float.

This reads like a walkthrough for a game. Should be made into one, perhaps having Easter eggs with Leonardo (punching him would be so satisfactory) while you escape to safety.

It actually was one. I remember playing as a young kid on a Windows 95 PC. I never got the grasp of the game mechanics or shuffled the right items to the right places. I always ended up either drowning or getting murdered. There were two guys who would kill you: a Russian named Vlad who would find you in the ship if you stole the diamond necklace, and a guy whose name escapes me, who would kill you with a pipe in the boiler room (can't remember why). I think it had suffered death by incompatibility by the time I tried to revisit in ~Windows 7 days.

Edited to add wiki link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanic:_Adventure_Out_of_Ti...

Seems like the safest thing to do would be to wait until the ship is about to go down, then activate your time machine and return from whence you came...

I can't. Nobody goes home. Nobody else comes through. It's just him - and me.

How to survive sinking a ship and then freeze to death while watching it sink nearby.

I would have drowned trying to assemble the tuxedo without internet. It's probably white tie, so that's assuming I don't accidentally smother myself with the bib or get my tails caught in something.

There are some stuff to consider for titanic. 97% of female vip class survived. Also 87% of female crew members survived. Don't try to be hero just because you are a male.

I never plan to be on a ship so I don't need this advice. But I've watched countless videos on how to escape a sinking car.

My initial thought was this was an article about emmigrating from the UK to escape the impending carnage of Brexit

That sounded like the description of a game.

Sigh. Thought it's an article about getting off from a start-up/business that's sinking; not literally the Titanic itself. Amusing but well written, triggered some flashes of Titanic movie while reading it though.

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