Financial Stability Oversight Council: 2020 Annual Report [pdf] | Hacker News Reader

Financial Stability Oversight Council: 2020 Annual Report [pdf]

home.treasury.gov

39 pointsrixrax6 comments

Probably the most interesting piece is "Box G: “Low-For-Long” Interest Rates and Implications for Financial Stability" ... " A longerterm risk is how the market participants’ exposures to greater levels of duration risk affect financial stability when rates eventually increase. The 2013 Taper Tantrum is an example of this potential dynamic, although the wider financial stability implications of that episode were limited. The potential risk here is that unexpected increases in rates negatively affect the balance sheets of financial institutions in such a way that leads to financial instability. Banks without adequate capital buffers could face solvency issues, while pension funds and insurance companies could experience liquidity problems related to losses on derivatives positions or increases in early liquidations. Additionally, with valuations in both equity and credit markets relatively high by historical standards and likely to become further stretched in a low-for-long environment, the risk of a sharp correction becomes more likely, especially in conjunction with high levels of leverage or excessive reliance on short-term wholesale funding. Even small changes to expectations of far-in-the-future cash flow may have a disproportionate effect on current valuations when interest rates are low. As a result, such rate changes can lead to sharp adjustments in valuations. The potential negative effects that an unexpected increase in rates would have across a variety of market participants make this longer-term risk worth monitoring. Adequate guidance on the timing and pace of any such policy-related increase will likely reduce this risk."

The 2013 Taper Tantrum refers to the 2013 collective reactionary panic that triggered a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, after investors learned that the Federal Reserve was slowly putting the breaks on its quantitative easing (QE) program. See https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-2013-timeline/key...

In other words, everyone -- from the world's largest megabank to your Aunt Tillie's modest retirement plan -- is long low rates, so no one can afford to the see them rise much, let alone see them rise quickly and unexpectedly.

Can someone give a tl;dr? I'm having issues opening this on my phone.

"The U.S. economy was in the midst of the longest post-war economic expansion, with historically low levels of unemployment, prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year. The global pandemic not only brought about a public health crisis but also caused a contraction of economic activity at an unprecedented pace. Initially, the pandemic reduced consumer spending, slowed manufacturing production, and led to widespread business closures. The unemployment rate surged from 3.5 percent in February to a record high of nearly 15 percent in April. Since then, extraordinary measures undertaken by policymakers have succeeded in arresting the decline in economic conditions, initiating a recovery and lowering the unemployment rate to 7.9 percent as of September. However, a protracted virus outbreak poses downside risks that can slow the recovery and even prolong the economic downturn."

...

"With cash flows impaired due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many businesses may be challenged to service their debt. Since March, nearly $2 trillion in nonfinancial corporate debt has been downgraded, and default rates on leveraged loans and corporate bonds have increased considerably. The growing number of bankruptcy filings could stress resources at courts and make it harder for firms to obtain critical debtor-in-possession financing. It could also prevent many firms from restructuring their debt in a timely fashion, potentially forcing them into liquidation."

...

"Money market funds (MMFs) offer shareholders redemptions on a daily basis while holding many short-term assets that are less liquid, especially in times of stress. Stresses on prime and tax-exempt money funds in March revealed continued structural vulnerabilities, which led to increased redemptions and, in turn, likely contributed to the stress in STFMs. Among institutional and retail prime MMFs, outflows as a percentage of fund assets exceeded that of the September 2008 crisis. Outflows abated after the Federal Reserve announced support for the CP market and MMFs."

...

lowering the unemployment rate to 7.9 percent as of September.

Whenever the "unemployment rate" is announced by a US agency, the reader must remember that that's not the actual unemployment rate.

Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment#United_States_Bur... :

"Official unemployment rate... when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks."

It's kind of a lie, but not really, because the BLS gets to define the word "unemployed".

Thank you for posting this.

So am I understanding that MMFs are much riskier now?

Also, are there any sorts of trackers that follow bankruptcy filings and downstream economic impact? That seems like a powder keg.

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