For what it's worth, I wouldn't be working at Waymo if I didn't believe self-driving cars are very likely to save lives.
> In general, it's my belief (I don't have facts or research, just a hunch)
Indeed.
The data I've seen essentially shows the in vitro safety of self-driving cars. Yes, these cars are driving out in the real world, but they are singular in a sea of human drivers. The reports I've seen is that the cars are overly careful and just put along. The safety data of such trials will be skewed. You can't simply extrapolate that safety data out to where now you have say 25% self-driving and 75% human drivers and so on. It's a dynamic problem.
I've seen presentations by Waymo managers. Just as little as a year or two ago, the cars were basically incapable of handling snow or rain. You may be offended by the marketing comment, but until we see holistic data that supports what the marketing says, that's the reality.
The existing data on Uber and Lyft is clear. They increase accidents and congestion. How do self-driving cars approach this problem? Because there's clear precedence that the introduction of a new paradigm of driving causes problems, even ignoring the aspect of self-driving versus human driver.