In Praise of the Covid Superforecasters

The only proven approach to successful superforecasting.

1. Choose 2^N people.

2. Develop M binary forecasts, M < N.

3. Send half the sample a forecast of True, the other half the sample a forecast of False.

3. Whatever occurred, True or False, select the sub population to which you sent the correct forecast for further forecasting. Discard the other half.

4. Repeat the forecasting and culling until you have 2^(N-M) people remaining.

5. Announce to the 2^(N-M) that you are a superforecaster and milk them for all they are worth.