No, it's not extremely likely. Given that most browser exploits utilize some sort of a heap spray, a growing memory usage is almost standard pattern for a browser vuln.
There is evidence that this is Flash. However, since everyone seems to want to attack individual parts of that evidence without applying Occam's Razor, I concede it could be something other than Flash. It could be Java, too. It could be a "standard browser exploit" too, whatever that is. Could be cosmic rays too.
The tendency to look for ways to prove me wrong with an alternate theory (which yours is) as opposed to acknowledging that multiple theories are possible with zero evidence aggravates me among technical people. In the absence of a disclosure we are both right.
Let's apply Occam's razor: a) There is no reason why Flash (or another plugin) needs to take up a large amount of space on the page. If I were to write a flash exploit, it'd be a 1x1 object with whatever ActionScript that triggers the vulnerability, no need for a large area. b) VUPEN is a bunch of extremely talented folks and I believe they have little to gain by posting a fabricated exploit video. c) The delay can also be caused by a rather advanced heap-grooming technique, it can be JS garbage collection invoked many times, it can literally be them trying the payload numerous times. Implying it's probably flash is just as speculative as we're being.
Relax man, no one's disagreeing with you to be an asshole, no one's trying to argue with you, we're all just speculating.
Actually, you can fix it, too: chromium is open source.
Good to see this tired claim getting its play in this thread. I wondered how long it would be until it showed up. I think everyone who says "go fix it, it's open-source" should instead be required to come back with a diff within 24 hours.
I don't use Chrome or Windows, so I have almost negative personal interest in this story. However, some people probably do use Chrome and Windows, and those people's demands should be tempered by reality. If they didn't find this bug, why did they expect Google to?
I think everyone who says "go fix it, it's open-source" should instead be required to come back with a diff within 24 hours.
I think everyone should be required to give me a pony.
I love how you assert that literally anybody could check out Chromium and fix the sandbox, a sensitive security-essential part of the browser, with very little effort required to appreciate the source and all of the moving parts.