Comment by acqq | Hacker News Reader

Comment by acqq | Hacker News Reader

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The quote you use doesn't claim sterilizing immunity but the "protection" and is misleading. The publicly reported protection of the vaccines seeking EUA is against the symptomatic disease, as it can be seen in the protocols of the vaccine studies.

E.g. Moderna protocol:

https://www.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/mRNA-1273-P301...

"To be considered as a case of COVID-19 for the evaluation of the Primary Efficacy Endpoint, the following criteria must be met:

- The participant must have experienced at least TWO of the following systemic symptoms: Fever (≥ 38ºC), chills, myalgia, headache, sore throat, new olfactory and taste disorder(s), OR

- The participant must have experienced at least ONE of the following respiratory signs/symptoms: cough, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, OR clinical or radiographical evidence of pneumonia; AND

- The participant must have at least one NP swab, nasal swab, or saliva sample (or respiratory sample, if hospitalized) positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR."

In some other protocols it's not written in an easily quotable way but spread through the text and tables, but if you analyze the protocols carefully, the goal is the same: it's the vaccinated and symptomatic that are counted and compared with the symptomatic counted in the placebo group.

So whenever you saw "protection" up to now it was implicit it's the protection from the disease as defined above. Not the sterilizing immunity.

Moderna's announcement is also explicit in mentioning so defined "primary endpoint":

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-d...

"The primary endpoint of the Phase 3 COVE study is based on the analysis of COVID-19 cases confirmed and adjudicated starting two weeks following the second dose of vaccine."

We should eventually know more, but we still don't have that information.

Both Moderna and Pfizer trials have secondary outcomes that are measurable, protective, neutralizing antibody titers.

Check out the Pfizer press release. The vaccine is eliciting robust SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies, as well as T-cell responses.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta...

That's a direct mechanism of protection that will help to both prevent people from getting sick, and knock down shedding.

You're getting so far off in the details that you're missing the forest for the trees.

> That's a direct mechanism of protection that will help to both prevent people from getting sick

That's what the reported numbers claim: up to 95% people less are getting sick.

But it's unknown how much it will "knock down shedding" and the experts who follow only publicly available data are still cautious to claim the opposite of what you claim, specifically:

"it will be important to communicate to policy makers and the general public that first-generation vaccines are only one tool in the overall public health response to COVID-19 and unlikely to be the ultimate solution that many expect."

You may not like that or believe something else, but it's not what I hear and read the mentioned experts say, like, as an example, Natalie E. Dean whose article I've already linked to, and you can follow her other writings too. And, as far as I know, her opinion is far from being untypical, i.e. it would be easy to find more actual experts (which I define as those who were doing active research even before Covid-19 in the field and not something totally unrelated and who aren't just jumping in for political purposes -- note that that definition automatically excludes those like Ioannidis) who publicly say the same.

There is no ultimate public health solution ever in any situation!

Of course our response will be a multi-faceted approach! Look at how many businesses are now installing UV-lights in ventilation systems, allowing people to work from home, and how the wearing of masks has become normalized and accepted in many parts of the country!

People will no longer hesitate to throw on a mask if they feel ill, unlike before when we used to wander into Target sneezing and coughing all over everything! Think of how awesome that is for immunocompromised people!

The vaccine will be a critical link in a long chain that will hopefully save thousands, and thousands of lives. Whether it 100% eliminates the shedding of any measurable viral particles, knocks it down by 10%, 20%, 30%, 50% or whatever, it's a huge win. Right now we have zero way to even think about reducing viral shedding in real-world populations. We're relying 100% on social distancing and masks.

Get excited! We're gonna kick this thing!

I’m not against the vaccine. I’m merely against your claims which weren’t true, specifically, your false claims about the known level of the immunity they provide, believing which could put people in danger.

Meanwhile, exclusive evening news in the UK:

https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-vaccine-wont-free-self-1656...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/03/exclusive-vaccin...

3 December 2020 • 7:00pm

“Exclusive: Coronavirus vaccine won't free you from self-isolation, says Government —- The jabs provide Covid-19 immunity but scientists are yet to prove this prevents recipients from carrying and spreading the virus”

“People who receive the coronavirus vaccine will not be exempted from self-isolation if they are contacted by NHS Test and Trace, it has emerged.

Although the vaccine will give recipients immunity from the virus, scientists do not yet know whether it will stop them being carriers.

Government sources said it was likely to be months before there was any prospect of the vaccine negating the need for self-isolation.

It means that even if someone has been vaccinated, they will still have to remain at home for 14 days if they come into contact with someone who has the virus.”

..

“Any other vaccine that might be approved by regulators, such as the one being developed by Oxford University, will also be subject to the same lengthy process of discovering whether it prevents people being “silent” carriers of the virus.”

All I did at the beginning of this thread was directly quote the CDC in-context.

Take it up with them if you want.

https://wwwn.cdc.gov/DCS/ContactUs/Form

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