Why are great athletes more likely to be younger siblings?
fivethirtyeight.com
fivethirtyeight.com
However, I matured faster than my brothers and, having been able to observe them, picked up proper techniques and approaches to training earlier than they did. As a result, I broke many of their age-group records. Once I stopped growing, however, it came down to who had the most physical / mental talent (not me).
The other thing to mention is access to training. When I was in middle school, I was able to train with the high school team because my middle brother included me. I even got to go on the winter training trip to Florida with the high school team. That access to training with older kids who were bigger, faster and more mature accelerated my development both physically and mentally.
At early ages, up to 12 ish, those with older siblings in the sport are a year or two ahead of those that don’t.
At 13 and up it starts to even out, as individual commitment and physical gifts play more of a role.
In the past, this has meant the wrong people are placed on the development programs and a lot of talent being lost, but it’s changing now.
It’s all about retention until well into teenage years
Using 1999 data [1], 52% of US families had no children, 20% had one child, 18% had two children, 7% had 3 children, and 3% had 4 or more children.
That means that of children who had siblings in 1999, at least 59% had at least one older sibling, and at most 41% were the oldest sibling. If position within multi-sibling families was independent of chances of becoming a great athlete, we would expect great athletes to be more likely to be younger siblings simply because there are more younger siblings.
If we toss only children athletes in with the oldest child athletes from multi-child families, it doesn't make much difference because with only 5% of athletes being only children there simply aren't enough to tip the balance. It only brings it down to 56% have at least one older sibling, 44% do not have an older sibling.
This suggests that a better question would be "Why are only children less likely to become great athletes?"
[1] https://aspe.hhs.gov/report/trends-well-being-americas-child...
"On average, the two groups had the same number of total siblings. What mattered was whether those siblings were younger or older. The elite athletes had 1.04 older siblings on average; nonelite athletes had only 0.61."
I think this ratio is greater than what you find in the general population analysis.
52% no children made do a double take and I'm glad I did. I think the issue with your calculation is that some of the families will eventually have more children than they did at the time of measurement. So number of children is biased downwards.
I wonder if that's a major part of the reason or if there are other more significant factors.
I used to teach jujitsu when I was younger. My younger (by 5 years) cousin was a student there and he loved to practice with me outside of class. I remember one time we were doing some informal practice in the afternoon, and during a standing grapple, something distracted me at the door of the gym. In an instant, he grabbed my leg and slammed me hard into the ground. I was totally shocked and he wasted no time jumping up and down, celebrating for a good 5 minutes. He was absolutely as excited as he would have been had he won a championship match.
I'm guessing he had that move planned for weeks or months before ever getting the opportunity to execute it.
I played baseball, not at a high level or anything special, but I played and loved it. Then I had kids, the first two girls, and I got them started with fastpitch softball. It took me awhile to get up to speed with what I'll call "modern training methods" - and did a lot of trial and, unfortunately, error with my oldest daughter.
I've coached both of them and I can say that when I started training my younger daughter how to hit, at age 6, I had about 4 years worth of modern training/coaching knowledge fresh in my head. My older kid, who started at 9, had a dad who kind of knew how it worked, but it was rusty.
So what I ended up with is an older daughter who became great, eventually, around 14u, but spent a lot of time on the bench and a lot of time spent re-learning how to correctly do things.
Then I have a 10 year old (at the moment) who was taught the correct way to do everything, from step 1.
Currently, the only objective results I can give you is that I had one kid who didn't make any teams for two entire seasons before making one because we attended 90% of their practices (open practices). Then I had another kid who has only not made one team in the last 2 years. This fall she made 4 out of 4 teams that she tried out for. She finally failed to make a team when we went over a large organization in Oklahoma that plays at an extremely high level, and they were only looking for 2 more players to complete their roster.
https://slate.com/culture/2008/04/why-do-so-many-pro-basebal... https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/why-many-olym...
The real question is did you make an APBA card for yourself based on those stats
http://apbagames.com/apbabaseball
http://apbagames.com/wp-content/uploads/baseball/APBA_own_ca...
This seems like such a strange thing to conclude. It seems like this could be driven entirely by there being a much larger variation in the number of hours of informal practice than the number of hours in formal practice.
If you are average in your level, and move one level up, you will suck at that level. You will probably be below average and struggle. <- Important keyword
When you move back to your level, you will be above average. Your teammates will feel slow, you can anticipate/read read the game much better... etc.. etc..
It seems that 'struggle' at the higher level, forces players to learn much faster. It can have un-intended consequences in some though (give up playing). You, when going a level up, it has to be a level you can still manage.
eg. a 9yo (second grade), could manage to play with 10yo (third grade), but would never be able to cope with 11-12+ yo (fourth grade)
If you are an adult recreational player, you could move from lower-intermediate, to upper intermediate, but you will flame out at a semi-competitive level.
If you just play with people the same level, or if you are the best amongst the people you play with, you have no reason to learn new techniques or figure out how to read serves or position yourself on the court etc.
For example, when I started playing with the scholarship guys I had to learn a kick second serve (top spin serve that bounces very high to opponent's backhand) or they were just smacking them for winners every time.
Obviously you can't advance too quickly or it would be like neophytes playing with experts, but amongst the people I played with it was accepted that you always wanted to be playing the people who were better than you.
First off, the biggest influence would seem to be having a parent who is a coach or competed at a high level. I don't see how this would change by birth order as all the kids are likely wrestling before they walk.
For kids with parents new to the sport, I see a couple possible reasons. First and foremost I would say that having an bigger/stronger sibling to spar with benefits the younger child more than the other. I can also assure you that at least with wrestling, this happens throughout the day, anywhere in the house. Even for other sports, I can see this happening. Show up a bit early and pass the ball around, or warmup with techniques. The younger child will be be exposed to someone with slightly better technique on a regular basis.
The other factor I see is that the parents just have a better idea of how it works. Which tournaments/camps/clubs to sign up for outside the regular scholastic season.
Also, the younger sibling may just start earlier. You're already dragging them along to all the tournaments and clubs anyway, may as well sign them up, too. So they end up starting a couple years earlier.
My decade younger brothers, tough as nails. We still horseplay wrestled and all that. I’ve always attributed to Growing up with a teenage version of me during their younger years before I left home.
Not talking about whether the older siblings' career makes money that's used for the younger, although that might be the case as well. Instead, by the time the younger starts the parents probably have more of it. Given that for academic success money is a huge factor, I'd wager it's in sports as well.
> Recent research has consistently found that earlier born children score slightly higher on average on measures of intelligence, but has found zero, or almost zero, robust effect of birth order on personality.
(Wikipedia, citing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_order#cite_note-:0-2)
I'd always assumed the idea of youngest siblings being the most extroverted, personable, bubbly etc. was supported by studies, it's such an "obvious" fact. Very valuable to find out it's yet another unfounded assumption!
Always useful to spread these things.
¹Last sentence of §Significance https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4655522/#idm140...
By my second year I'd closed the gap considerably as had many of the other incoming freshmen who returned for a second year. Two of the freshmen were actually ready to compete their freshmen year and I found out later that they had practiced with college wrestlers quite a lot during their high school careers.
I heard someone once say compare yourself to those at the level above you rather than your current level. It's a bit draining but it is a good way to progress quickly for athletes.
My son is (theoretically) wrestling D2 as a freshman this year. I ask him, "do you feel you belong in the room?" He says, "they all know so much more than I do." Yea, that's because they're practicing against guys that can stop the first move.
As long as we're throwing around anecdata, Vincenzo Nibali and Peter Sagan are both far, far better cyclists than their younger brothers.
edit: also, fact check: Juraj is in fact Peter Sagan's older brother. Peter is a youngest child, as should be obvious by his antics ;)
well, what's your excuse now Antonio?
Looking ahead to edtech that is personalized collaborative remote mobile XR with human-AI hybrid NPCs, etc... there's a question of what should we be aiming for? What constitutes success? Is there potential for low-hanging "OMG!" fruit? If 80% of US high-school graduates were to achieve the science understanding of current Harvard entering freshman, would that be a stunning success, or an abject failure? Or both? Having a collection of "here's an illustration of really good outcomes" might help broaden vision and expectation.
It took a week or so.
His younger brother learned in 15 minutes when we were on vacation because otherwise he woukd not have been able to play with him and some friends.
The key thing is that the older brother won't have much pity, either you follow or you don't.
I saw that in plenty other cases where the younger one had to learn fast, and he learned much quicker and earlier too.
Us being imperfect parents, he also watched some movies earlier than his brother did.
I find on my one data point analysis that the way children are raised are very different between siblings.
Could it also be that younger siblings get parents who are a little richer and gotten over the sticker shock of being a top athlete? A lot of top youth sports require an obscene amount of money to get to the top levels. Maybe by kid #2 the parents are okay with junior's sport costing them a few thousand a month.
If the older sibling was in the same sport, younger siblings get parents that are more experienced in navigating & supporting training, etc., which probably extends beyond just price sticker shock. They may even get a boost directly from interaction with their older sibling. (I know that seems to be the case with general knowledge and skills development with my two young kids.)
Is this literal? How does it break down? I guess you have to travel to a lot of tournaments, fix/replace a lot of expensive equipment, and pay for private coaching?
Gear may seem expensive but it's really not in comparison. Blades will cost you about 100-120 a pop, they break every 6 months, a year if you're careful. Full international grade gear you could do for under 1000 dollars.
Granted this is the insane top of the top. But I do know quite a few parents who pay for this.