One of the lessons I learned from Thinking, Fast and Slow, is that people who present a number as a percent scale can (but might not) have an agenda, as can people who report an absolute magnitude. What I took from this is that if you want to have a rational reaction to the data, you need to have both numbers in mind while deciding how to feel about the situation.

That means 1% aka 70 million dead. Which I interpret as the Uncanny Valley. 70 million is more than enough for vigorous response. But 1% will mean friction from - and for - policy makers.

The problem is, as virologists have told us for decades, Ebola isn't a very effective plague because it's too deadly, too fast. If we don't react to 1% mortality rate, then the end game is we select for viruses that kill 1% of us, and if the mutation rate or family for that virus is large, we get a unique variant every 5-10 years for the rest of time. If the mortality isn't selecting for the same genotype, then that's almost 10% of us overall, death by a dozen cuts.

We have to have protocols in place for reducing R. We have to have the 'pump' primed for putting out fast-track vaccines. We have to have 'red phone' protocols for world leaders to move faster when these situations are developing.

When COVID-25 comes, we'll be either repeating this experience or blaming all of our leaders for learning nothing.