Bitcoin’s Price Breaks All-Time High: Here’s Why It Happened | Hacker News Reader

Bitcoin’s Price Breaks All-Time High: Here’s Why It Happened

decrypt.co

37 pointstimcc5054 comments

Here is the easiest way I can explain it:

Bitcoin is a social phenomena - no government or company backs it. The only reason it has value is if people value it. Bitcoin promoters have convinced people it's a store of value, like gold except digital. As the Cult of Bitcoin spreads, it doesn't take that many new enthusiasts to push the price up, as unlike literally all other commodities on earth, the supply of bitcoin is truly constrained and there cannot be anymore made in response to demand above the normal rate of inflation.

This time, big money, institutions, and the very rich are coming in addition to the widespread purchase by retail. The price is going to rise a lot.

This is a really good interview by Michael Saylor who was an early investor in FANG companies on what his thinking was for investing his companies reserve cash of $400mil in Bitcoin https://youtu.be/Cg10yYZjK94

His conclusion is that Bitcoin is a disruptive currency. It is equivalent to how Facebook disrupted and captured social, Amazon disrupted retail, Google disrupted info. Bitcoin is disrupting centralized controlled currency. It is replacing central control with something democratized and decentralized.

Then why hasn't it done any of those yet? Bitcoin came out in 2009, Facebook opened its doors to the public in 2006. One achieved world dominance, the other still can't get out of being darknet money.

AFAICT, it can't even get adoption in darknet markets.

Aside from extortion and ransoms which are still bitcorns, you're unlikely to use anything but monero, zcash or maybe eth for illicit purchases these days.

Because it can't.

The bitcoin github and subreddit were taken over by a group of people that just wanted to make a centralized second layer that they could sell. They used (and still use) lies, propaganda and heavy censorship to keep the transaction capacity at only a few per second. Floods of incoming people that had no in depth understanding were and still are unaware that /r/bitcoin was like /r/thedonald - anything (even questions) against the (technically ridiculous) propaganda message that more than a few kilobytes per second in transactions would be a disaster was deleted and the user was banned or shadow banned.

This is not controversial, you can still check out /r/bitcoin

Cryptocurrency in general is an idea whose time has come. Electronic currency that can be used without permission from a third party has many enormous advantages. The original bitcoin chain is nonsense and has been a disaster for the last 7 years.

One achieved world dominance, the other still can't get out of being darknet money.

This is kinda silly. Bitcoin went from $0 to over $300 billion in market cap with no company or organization to market it. It's been the best performing asset for the past 5, 10 and 12 years.

Now that it's large enough for institutional investors, family offices, ETFs and hedge funds to get involved, that's happening. Yes, 401ks, IRAs, company treasuries now have bitcoin in them.

Meanwhile, every fiat currency (except two—the dollar and the pound) has failed at one time or another. Now that it's been 50 years since going off the gold standard, the dollar isn't looking so good for the long haul. Trillions of dollars have been printed this year; that erodes the buying power of the dollars we already had.

The only reason anything has value is if people value it...value itself is a social phenomena, and this includes any type of monetary vehicle, whether a government backs it or not. And maybe I have been living in a fantasy world, but your comment about literally all other commodities on earth not being constrained is literally wrong. The study of economics and wealth is rooted in scarcity and the ability or inability to get more of something.

I disagree on both points. The US government has deemed US dollars to be the only thing that can be used to pay taxes, so therefore it has some root value.

On commodities, if there is strong demand for gold, uranium, corn, etc. the market can respond and invest more capital into creating them. Bitcoin - not so. No matter how much more capital is invested in mining, the rate of inflation is fixed, and the pie is just split differently. But there cannot be an influx of new Bitcoin above what is specified in the protocol.

The US government has deemed US dollars to be the only thing that can be used to pay taxes, so therefore it has some root value.

This is incorrect. Just because we pay taxes in dollars doesn't give it any intrinsic value. It has been decreed by the US government that we do so but that doesn't change the underlying fact that the dollar is based on… nothing other than a promise of the government that it's useful.

Because more gold can be mined and more dollars can be printed, each block of gold and dollar loses value, because they're not scarce.

A dollar in 1913 had the same buying power as $26 in 2020 [1]. Bitcoin is hard money; it can't be deflated and it can't lose buying power like all fiat currencies do.

[1]: https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-value-of-a-dollar-tod...

> The only reason anything has value is if people value it...value itself is a social phenomena

That's not totally true, certain things have a more fundamental value in that if you don't get them you die, such as food and shelter. If we were ethereal economic agents living on a free and infinite compute substrate you could say that, in the meantime the Maslow hierarchy makes certains things have intrasical value that other things don't have.

I'm not going to lie, I have no idea what 'ethereal economic agents living on a free and infinite compute substrate' means. You have bested me this time.

so wrong.

>unlike literally all other commodities on earth, the supply of bitcoin is truly constrained

BTC is not a commodity, so there's no point comparing it to "other" commodities, of which in fact there are true constraints.

> cannot be anymore made in response to demand above the normal rate of inflation.

above? BTC does not track "normal" rate of inflation.

the only reason BTC has value is because it can be swapped for fiat currency. it will never be its own "thing".

> Bitcoin is a social phenomena - no government or company backs it.

This is almost correct. China controls >50% of mining resources, much more in fact. 65%. If and when it suits them, they can ruin it.

There have been major investments to bring bitcoin mining back to the US, including partnerships to use natural gas and oil to power such mining: https://www.coindesk.com/us-becoming-bitcoin-mining-power-ag...

the only reason BTC has value is because it can be swapped for fiat currency. it will never be its own "thing".

Bitcoin is a non-sovereign, hard-capped supply, global, immutable, decentralized digital store of value. It’s an insurance policy against monetary and fiscal policy irresponsibility from central banks and governments globally.

This makes bitcoin it's own thing. It's early days, but satoshi's (1/100,000,000 of a bitcoin) are already the standard for a variety of transactions.

Bitcoin is already a store of value and we can transact in it; it's just a matter of time before it becomes a unit of account.

This is my view exactly. I've been telling people I know who are trying to ride the crypto train that BTC has no fundamentals, by which I mean exactly that "the only reason it has value is if people value it."

Think about it: the way BTC is created is basically by expending energy to solve some contrived math problem. So what? Who should ever care at all that someone, at sometime in the past, happened to be running a computer that hit on the solution of a silly math problem? It gets even more absurd when you consider that mining pools became a thing, so that even if your particular computer hits on the solution, you didn't actually do all the work that goes into the so-called "proof of work." (Yes, I know, in this scenario, the new BTC is split among the pool members, but, that doesn't really matter very much.)

So, basically, BTC is the recording of the fact that someone, somewhere contributed to the solution of a math problem. Why should that have value at all, over and above the inherent value in solving said problem, which is essentially nil in this case? Well, it shouldn't. And, yet, it does, for the reason you've noted.

Although I hesitate to call BTC "money," there is an actual form of money that also has value for the same reason, is a true digital currency, which has a durable and distributed transaction record, and is much easier to manipulate for the purpose of managing an economy based on it. That would be the USD, and other such fiat currencies. And, the USD fundamentally is just the recording of the fact that a bank somewhere has managed to create $9 by turning $1 in reserve into $10 in loans out into the economy at large (or, whatever the ratio exactly is -- I forget.)

In other words, if you accept that BTC is a currency at all, it's little more than a worse version of the world's de facto reserve fiat currency, with the added bonus of generally not being able to transact using it, along with extreme volatility relative to the USD, which one actually can transact with.

That's not to say I don't wish I had bought some BTC back when I first heard of it and it was trading at under $1. Had I gambled even $500 on it back then, I would have somewhere in the neighborhood of $9M now, and, essentially be set for life. But, I was a poor graduate student who already realized most of what I previously mentioned and decided that I'd rather pay rent for a couple of months in the dorms than buy an expensive lottery ticket.

I would hesitate to call it "money" as well, as apart from its use in place of money, it has no value. Even paper currency is, at bottom, worth the paper it's printed on.

Even paper currency is, at bottom, worth the paper it's printed on.

When Zimbabwe printed a $100,000,000,000,000 (one hundred trillion dollar bill) due to hyperinflation, the people used it for fire, because it wasn't useful for anything else.

So… no, paper money has been worthless many times.

And, now, those notes sell for over $100 each in uncirculated condition, simply because it's denominated in "dollars" and has the largest numerical denomination history. Had you bought one in 2001, when they were worth $5 apiece, that would have yielded you a CAGR of around 40%. Sometimes, I kind of want to kick myself for missing out on that train. :)

More as a collectable than anything else.

You should look up "worthless." Even kindling counts as value. Try burning Bitcoin.

"Paper is poverty… it is only the ghost of money, not money itself."

-Thomas Jefferson

Coins are essentially worthless as well. Ok, they have a 'book value' of the (usually base) metal they're made from. But that's about it.

So what has 'true value' then? Gold? It's similar to Bitcoin, in that you have to deposit it and use an exchange.

It's similar to Bitcoin, in that you have to deposit it and use an exchange.

Bitcoin is peer-to-peer; you don't have to use an exchange to transact.

Lightning allows us to transact bitcoin instantaneously, person to person. There are plenty of Lightning wallets for iOS and Android.

[1]: https://bisq.network

[2]: https://hodlhodl.com

As long as you're willing to transact $19000, right? Else who holds the coin in escrow? Or am I misunderstanding something.

I believe you can transact in amounts as low as 1 satoshi, or 1e-8 BTC, which would imply a minimum transaction amount of $0.19, assuming a value of $19k per BTC.

Or am I misunderstanding something. Yes.

From the Bisq FAQ: Security deposits are set to be a percentage of the trade amount—actual percent varies by BTC price volatility, but minimum is 0.006 BTC—but the percent can be adjusted by the offer maker to be as low as 15% or as high as 50%.

0.006 of a Bitcoin is $117.366

So, with an exchange? Not peer to peer?

So, with an exchange? Not peer to peer?

Both Bisq and Hodl Hodl are peer-to-peer. You set your own price to sell at, for example. I don't know about Hodl Hodl but Bisq runs over Tor to protect user's privacy.

It's true that current circulation coins have very little value as metal scrap. The largest coin you're ever likely to encounter in circulation is the Kennedy half dollar. Since 1971, they are made of a copper core with a copper/nickel cladding layer, just like current dimes and quarters are. It's current melt value is approximately $0.09.

But, when yo speak about "true value," consider that anything you're trying to attach a dollar value to, you're measuring its value in terms of dollars. A dollar today really is little more than a bit that's set in a computer somewhere. Why do we give that any value at all?

The answer is that the USD, along with most, if not all, current world currencies, is essentially an "economy token." By that I mean the USD is literally just a way to keep score, i.e. to tell how much you're winning at the game of capitalism.

This seems like neither a good thing nor a bad thing. It just is what it is.

Interestingly, according to https://sdbullion.com/blog/how-much-silver-gold-is-there there are about 6e9 ozt gold and 5e10 ozt silver above ground right now. At today's current spot prices of $1789.55 for gold per ozt and $22.78 per ozt, that works out to about 1.2e13 USD worth, which, if we made all money either out of or backed by gold and silver in a 1:1 ratio, would literally be all the money in the world.

Gold has value on its own, apart from its function as money.

> The only reason it has value is if people value it

The only reason anything has value is if people value it.

People are getting tired of banks and money printing

But they trust bitcoin more than plain old gold. That’s interesting.

I’ve never liked the idea of investing in gold, purely for the fact that I could see a big disruption happening to it in my lifetime. Asteroid mining, some advance in fusion that makes “alchemy” commercially viable, etc.

I don’t trust Bitcoin either, of course. If something were to happen to Coinbase or some attack on the network itself it could tank awfully quickly.

Spread and regulations make gold less attractive

If something were to happen to Coinbase or some attack on the network itself it could tank awfully quickly.

Coinbase is just an exchange; plenty of them have come and gone since bitcoin has been around. Mt. Gox was much bigger on a percentage basis than Coinbase is now when it went out of business. There are plenty of other exchanges and other ways for people to buy and sell bitcoin [1][2].

Bitcoin is a global network of tens of thousands of full nodes verifying the block chain and miners; there's no feasible attack for this.

It's been 12 years; I'm sure it's been attacked every which way possible in that time. The only way you can stop bitcoin is to shutdown the internet and that's not going to happen.

One mantra in the Bitcoin community to live by: "Not your keys, not your bitcoin."

Anyone with a substantial amount of bitcoin should transfer them from an exchange (or Cash App or PayPal) to a wallet they control, which isn't that difficult. There are plenty of hardware wallets to enable this and n of m multisig solutions, so there isn't a single point of failure.

[1]: https://keys.casa

Ha. "went out of business" is code for "had its entire deposits embezzled".

It matters not if there are other exchanges, if your bitcoins are on the next exchange to disappear without a trace. That happens enough times, the money folks will give up. Leaving it to hobbyists I suppose

if your bitcoins are on the next exchange to disappear without a trace.

Anyone with a significant amount of Bitcoin self-custodies and uses at least one hardware wallet to store their Bitcoin.

Gold isn't easily divisible. You can't use gold for daily transactions. People do and have used Bitcoin to buy the proverbial cup of coffee.

Gold isn't easily transportable. If you had $100,000 in gold and wanted to leave the country with it, that would be quite a hassle.

A bitcoin wallet can live on your smartphone or a USB stick. Or you can memorize 12 words and gain access to your wallet anywhere there's an internet connection.

If you wanted to send $1000 of your gold somewhere, that's another hassle.

A bitcoin transaction can be sent in minutes anywhere in the world.

The supply of gold grows each year; the higher the price goes, the more gold is produced, therefore decreasing gold's buying power.

Bitcoin is on a fixed schedule that can't be changed. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, making each one that much more valuable.

It's not a coincidence that Bitcoin is hitting highs at the same time as the stock market. Both are highly speculative at this point, and historically correlated.

From back in June, a prediction that Bitcoin would catch up with the S&P 500 based on the historical correlation:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-sp-500-correlation-me...

Good thing about Bitcoin is that it might push for next gen computers (quantum computers etc.) to break it. It forces us to invent something even better. Until then I don't see Bitcoin going anywhere but up.

Good thing about Bitcoin is that it might push for next gen computers (quantum computers etc.) to break it.

Bitcoin will switch to a quantum resistant encryption algorithm long before that becomes a threat.

Bitcoin couldn't even change a constant which would allow the system to actually be used for a slightly more reasonable number of transactions. Why do you think it can do a more fundamental change?

Your slightly more reasonable number of transactions also requires slightly more resources to fully validate all bitcoin history, leaving it slightly less decentralized. By the time it takes many days to sync, few people will bother to run a full node.

Bitcoin will make a fundamental change only when it faces an existential crisis, like facing imminent threats from quantum computers.

Bitcoin couldn't even change a constant which would allow the system to actually be used for a slightly more reasonable number of transactions…

Lightning took care of increasing the number of transactions Bitcoin can handle. Apparently the folks who wanted to keep the block size the same won; the Bitcoin cash is essentially worthless now. Meanwhile, Lightning is doing great: https://bitcoinvisuals.com/lightning

Why do you think it can do a more fundamental change?

Because there's $300+ billion at stake, which could be at risk with quantum computers in the future. It's already being planed for.

More like: Here's why I want to be right

cos people have nothing else to spend their money on?

going up up up up

Classic pump and dump.

It's the same rinse repeat cycle, it'll crash back down to 8k in a few weeks.

I wish HN has built-in DLCs [1] for this… I'd bet that's not going to happen.

[1]: "Using DLCs, Bitcoiners can make bets based on events to which the oracle is attesting. Last week, we saw one of the first of these done by Suredbits Founder Chris Stewart and creator of BTCPay Server Nicolas Dorier, betting on the result of the U.S. election."—https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/dlcs-are-on-bitcoin-bri...

That Michael Saylor tweet is hilarious:

"#Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy."

Certainly it's that, and not rampant Tether printing / fraud / lack of exit off-ramps / institutionaland retail investor ignorance

Ok, so I've heard that tether printing story over and over. Is there a reputable source for these claims?

Any that isn't in the crypto press.

If you want Tether explained, this is the best article I've seen (I wish I'd written it).

https://www.kalzumeus.com/2019/10/28/tether-and-bitfinex/

This is a year old; it's only gotten more blatant since then.

The NYAG's inquiry has been slowed by COVID, but is grinding on.

Thanks that was very informative.

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