The most surprising demographic crisis
economist.com
economist.com
I wouldn't be surprised if they easily solved problem #2 by paying poor people to have more kids (though there will still be a period of labor shortage, during which they'll probably bring in migrant workers that they'll unceremoniously boot out when they're no longer needed), but the solution to #1 will be very interesting to observe.
There are few things that stir as much civil unrest as not being able to find a woman to marry. They will have to either (a) subsidize the import of women from Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, North Korea, Mongolia and other poor neighbors, or (b) kill the surplus men. Given the modern Chinese government's penchant for a foreign policy of non-interference, (b) seems like the most likely option. But even China's economic hegemony at the time may not be enough to suppress the inevitable cries of outrage from abroad (and perhaps even at home) at the mass murder of millions of young men.
My presuppositions were purely based on the Chinese government's history of human rights violations. Given that the government is dominated by engineers, it's actually not that surprising that they focus on the ends rather than the means. I did not intend to inject any vitriol; I was simply giving some probable solutions based on an objective assessment of the situation.
It doesn't matter if they're satisfied or not, so long as they don't become criminal or violent. Porn and video games seem to be pretty good at distracting sexless men from more destructive pursuits, let alone sexbots.
Don't get me wrong, the gender imbalance is going to make life pretty awful for Chinese men, but I think the vast majority of those men will suffer quietly. The effect on the culture is going to be more subtle than what some people are envisioning.
My point was that not restorting to violence depends upon their being satsified. Porn and video games work for a very small percentage of the population that is anti-social anyway. The desire to find a mate and reproduce is at the core of human psychology. For most men, a porn, video games, or even a sexbot won't be enough.
> I think the vast majority of those men will suffer quietly. The effect on the culture is going to be more subtle than what some people are envisioning.
Like it says here[0], the number of surplus men will be 32 million. So what if 90% of the men stay quiet? 3 million pissed off men is enough to make all hell break loose.
0: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/world/asia/11china.html
Interestingly, this is actually already the case in Western countries; in the US, there are roughly 55 single men for every 45 single women[0]. This is, of course, due to the younger average marital age of women than men.
Naturally, there's a lot more slack in the system as regards non-marital relationships than marital relationships; in the latter case the gender imbalance will indeed be a fundamental difference between China and other countries. But by the time the dating market shifts conclusively towards marriage, a lot of men will have aged out of the key crime demographic (ie, males aged 15-30, who commit such a hugely disproportionate number of crimes that overall crime rates are mostly a reflection of trends within this group).
I do expect that there will be a little more crime, as well as all kinds of other unpleasant effects that we can't even predict, but it won't be in anything resembling a linear fashion, and a lot will depend on other factors.
>Porn and video games work for a very small percentage of the population that is anti-social anyway.
What do you mean "work?" I'm not saying they can substitute for a real relationship. The relevant comparison isn't porn and video games vs. a living, breathing woman, it's porn and video games vs. jail time. And even if their existence doesn't make crime any less attractive, I think they'll still have an enervating effect that will make at-risk men less of a danger to others.
0: http://www.halfsigma.com/2008/04/unmarried-mal-1.html (look at the bottom row in the table)
Polyandry seems like an idea that has potential. I'll leave the implementation details to the experts though.
A large group of young men unable to find a mate is a large group of unhappy humans of the type which are traditionally most likely to resort to violence. I'm against this violence, sure. But when a society creates a situation like this and it is really stirring up some possibilities that we have to be aware of - to be able to prevent the violence.
Incidentally, there is a good example of a country where there are surplus males, due to healthcare priorities, and some men have 4 wives, further exacerbating the imbalance, and a culture that frowns on both casual sex and homosexuality. Perhaps you've heard of it? Afghanistan.
0: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/world/asia/11china.html
A more likely scenario than the more romantic notion of space colonization.
The average age of people diagnosed with lung cancer is 70 years old. 3% of all cases are found in people under the age of 45. (http://menshealth.about.com/od/cancer/a/lung_cancer.htm)
They wouldn't have to pay them, all they have to do is take away the one-child policy.
Also, paying people to have kids hasn't done much when other countries have tried it, and I doubt China's luck will be any better.
Most Western countries are facing a similar problem with aging populations, though on a lesser scale demographically. On the other hand, the Chinese government is much happier to leave folks to fend for themselves, while Western governments run into problems as the old folks demand ever-increasing spending on pensions and health care.
Would a replacement rate of 2 just result in an ever increasing population or would other forms of death step in to limit populations? How much bigger could we expect populations to get if we had a replacement rate of 2 and an average life span of 1000 years?
I only ask because it seems China is going to be an interesting showcase of the pros and cons of population control.
0: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Little_Empero...
Most developed countries are already producing children at less than replacement population rate. They will face the same situation in a couple generations.