Traditional bikers have underestimated demand for e-bikes at every step of the way for one reason: Traditional biking has a massive selection bias effect that excludes anyone who isn’t in great physical shape. The deeper you are into cycling, the more homogenous your perception of what constitutes a biker.
You’re not going to see average consumers at the top of 20-mile mountain bike trail with steep terrain at 7AM. You’re only going to see equally enthusiastic bikers who are highly trained and discipline. It leads to a stereotype that these are the only people who care to spend a lot of money on bikes.
E-bikes turn that assumption upside down. They offset the physical fitness requirements and blow the doors wide open for anyone and everyone who wants to spend their way into the sport. Now those previously unreachable heights can be accessed by anyone with a credit card. It’s no longer just a niche hobby exclusive to those who can put years into building up their fitness and bike knowledge.
The total addressable market of e-bikes is much greater than the total addressable market of conventional high end bikes for that reason.
Ironically, this is creating a lot of animosity among traditional bikers. Previously, the most difficult uphill trails were lightly trafficked because only a select few could ride them. It was satisfying to be one of the few people at the top of a difficult trail at sunrise. Now, it’s not uncommon to be passed on the uphills by many people who are visibly out of shape, but use e-bikes to make up the difference (and then some). Some people are even hacking their e-bikes for more power or to allow power application without pedaling, turning them into electric dirt bikes that tear up trails. This is why we have so much regulation clamping down on e-bike access right now. Those regulations might be the biggest modulator in the size of the e-bike market.