Hacker News Reader

Comment by xapata | Hacker News Reader

I don't see why those particular magnitude calculations are relevant to this analysis.

> economics has nothing to do with investing, and is worthless

Is it worthless because it has nothing to do with investing, or has nothing to do with investing because it's worthless? Further, why do you think the Federal Reserve hires so many economists if economics is worthless?

> And yes, there is easy money laying around if you know what youre doing. There are dollar bills laying on the ground for smaller scale strats. People just arent taking about them

Isn't that like saying, "Winning chess tournaments is easy if you know what you're doing."? If something requires expertise, then it isn't easy. If finding these smaller scale strategies requires expertise, then the expert probably has better things to do with their time. I suppose that holds to arguing with idiots on Hacker News.

View on HN

I used to work on a team mixed of economics PhDs from Yale/Princeton/Harvard and with Phd Mathematicians. I know what economics is. All the best hedge funds are run by either math people or ruthless business men who cheat/activist invest/have non public information.

Also, the FED is in the process of destroying the US dollar and hyper inflating all the assets. Everyone but the capitalists are getting poorer.

The "Chief Economists" of many major US banks dont even hold economics degrees. People arent rational actors that you can plug into a math equation.

"If finding these smaller scale strategies requires expertise, then the expert probably has better things to do with their time. I suppose that holds to arguing with idiots on Hacker News."

Theres alot of friction of getting data to analyze, developing a strategy, executing the strategy, paying fees, managing risk, hedging. If you know how to do all that, you are probably already employed in that capacity or you run your own fund. But yes, if youre smart you can find an edge. Theres a ton of small man shops in NYC with 5 million in capital where everyone makes 600-1M a year.

> friction ... if youre smart you can find an edge

> easy money laying around

There's a bit of dissonance between the way you've characterized this process in different comments. That's my point.

"Hey, there's a dollar lying on the ground!"

"Can't be. Someone would have picked it up."

> destroying the US dollar and hyper inflating all the assets

Sounds like a good strategy to bring manufacturing back to the US. They've said the new policy is high employment.

"Hey, there's a dollar lying on the ground!"

Found the efficient market hypothesis believer, classic failing of economic theory.

Theres no alpha in the stock market!!!11!! If there was the completely efficient allocation of human capital, access of information, opportunity cost would strip it out so fast!!!

Yep, indeed I am. The same way I think casinos don't mind if you try to count cards at blackjack.

He said it pretty clearly. It's easy money if you look at it and work at it. The issue is most people don't have enough capital to try or don't have the balls to follow through. I've had many try my system and they can't hold the hard times.

Isn't that a contradiction in terms, "It's easy if you work at it."?

It's not easy to be Lebron James if you work at it. Also maybe it's just having a hidden talent you didn't know you had or a biological advantage.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com