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So what is a good or best practices solution to this? I was thinking you could branch the graph line 10 days prior into two lines, the top line being "projected", the bottom line being "actual", with labels, and maybe with a shaded area in the middle.

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Honestly, for data intended to be viewed by the lay public, the best option is probably to show by day reported. It's a little laggy, and will blurs things a bit, but realistically you're probably most interested in the moving average anyway, so more lag and blurring isn't that much of a problem.

Showing a graph always going down is just poor public communication; people will inevitably misconstrue it.

Here you go: https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/

this is great, thanks for the pointer, great example for effective communication

Awesome job you are a hero

Perfect

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