But it also shows behavioral economics at work: developers have been so anchored to the 30% split that this change looks amazing, but why isn't the 15% the norm regardless of revenue size? Effectively Apple is "settling" or "bribing" small developers with this change, so they aren't compelled to join the antitrust movement led by bigger players.
From a business standpoint, Apple is trying to splinter the critics into various factions. A bit extreme analogy but it's akin to inciting conflict within the opposition - actually almost textbook monopolistic behavior. Segment the market by offering tiered incentives.
This reminds me a bit of the Netflix stance on net neutrality. They were for until they grew big enough and could pay off ISPs. ISPs essentially created the proverbial moat for Netflix.
And for any dev with more than 0% marginal cost the increase in profit is even higher.
(70% share of revenue -> 85% share of revenue)
It's already impossible on iOS, due to the fact that you cannot install any software except via the App Store, which requires an Apple ID.
At the moment it is possible to continue to use a mac and download and run software without an Apple ID, but if the trend of only releasing software via the App Store continues, that will become more and more difficult.
Even totally free apps in the App Store require that you identify yourself to Apple to download and use them.
Fredaspaghetti!
I was told this by the WireGuard team when I inquired why the WireGuard macOS VPN app is only available via MAS and not direct download (such as the Windows wg client).
I'm not 100% sure it's true, though, and am testing now. ProtonVPN claims to be working, with packet filtering for non-VPN traffic (kill switch) on 11.x, and they've a direct download, so it's possible that the wg devs are mistaken.
Apple leadership is answering in the implied context of "someone with an Apple ID". I'm never using my Apple ID again on a mac for any reason.