Hacker News Reader

Comment by baybal2 | Hacker News Reader

It's too unrealistic. If North Korea would blink, and go for a desperate all in attack, it will likely do so with China backing it. This country is being run over the phone from Beijing after all.

The most realistic, and highest success chance scenario is that North Korea will coordinate attack with China.

In all conceivable scenarios, NATO will have more resources even after 100% one sided nuclear attack on it (3000-4000 warheads,) and be able to subdue both China, and NK with conventional forces, and standing armies alone.

Not to say, China's neighbours will not stand still too.

Even a whatever pyrrhic victory will likely be the end of political regimes in both NK, and China.

If they will attack, they will weight in that price first.

View on HN

What could NK conceivably offer China that would pay for getting into a shooting war with another superpower?

If China does support NK in such a situation, that support would be limited to things which are entirely deniable- material and perhaps some light cyberwarfare. Certainly no extra ICBMs, and nothing that would stop the U.S. from rolling over NK in short order (for all that it certainly increase the cost for the U.S.)

> conceivably

It would be extremely disruptive to the region which would result in opportunities to use the Chinese army to make gains on disputed territories while the world was occupied with the big war elsewhere. I did not say this was likely.

> What could NK conceivably offer China that would pay for getting into a shooting war with another superpower?

In all scenarios I see, it will work the other way around. I doubt that NK military would move a centimetre without Beijing's explicit authorisation.

In any big war, China will use NK as a cannon fodder.

NK is more independent from China and a thorn in their side than you might think. NK's nukes can fly to Beijing faster than they'll fly across the Pacific. Korean nationalism is also strong in NK and they have no desire to be China's puppet given the historical implications. NK's greatest years where when the USSR/Russia was strong and they could count on Soviet economic assistance and military counterweight against China.

NK also has almost as many artillery pieces aimed at their China border as their South Korean one.

Romania also had guns on the border with USSR, but it did not prevent USSR from spending all of its anger for this geographic region on the tiny Albania.

Chauschesku was bas a bastard, bit it was their bastard, unlike Enver Hoxha.

Plot twist. America hacked North Korea’s nuclear defense system, and launched their nukes at Beijing from North Korean soil, to frame North Korea.

To all outside observers, this looks like North Korea did it. But Beijing is now turned to glass, and the Chinese command is transferred to the military division in Chengdu. The world is tense, as it awaits China’s retaliation.

However, China doesn’t fall for the bait. They begin their investigations in earnest, and discover the true mastermind behind the nuclear attack: The United States.

World War 3 begins. China launches 1000 ICBM missiles at the United States. Thus ending all known life as we know it on American soil. The American military counterattacks and launches all their nukes at China. Both sides are turned to glass.

The world gasps at what just happened. Russia now proceeds to take over the world. Well played.

>The most realistic, and highest success chance scenario is that North Korea will coordinate attack with China.

The most realistic scenario is that the nukes are not used to initiate an attack. They are there for defense, not to start a war.

How are you going do "defend" with your nukes, when the first think the enemy will do is to shoot your silos, airfields, and send their whole fleet to hunt down your icbm submarines?

You don't need to defend your ballistic missiles if you already fired them.

Ballistic missiles are an inherently offensive weapon.

>How are you going do "defend" with your nukes,

By making the chance that someone would even be willing to attack you a lot lower. MAD is a defensive strategy, not offensive.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com