I hope rich countries don't make it difficult for poor countries to get the vaccine, whether it is this one or Pfizer's.
The worst hit places per https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking... seem to be Latin American; Mexico, Peru, Ecuador.
It is possible that Africa simply lacks the data.
It's amusing, if not hugely disappointing at the same time.
Data from here:
It seems to me that all remaining levels and sub-sectors of American society have responded reasonably competently, despite the grossly negligent and incompetent response (potentially even criminal?) from the administration.
* 506 deaths in France (a fifth of the US population) * 213 in the UK (equiv. to 1000/day in the US) * Switzerland tracking at 100 deaths a day, equivalent to over 4000/day in the US * 162 deaths in Czechia, equiv. to 5346/day in the US
Look it up yourself:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerlan... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-repu...
As for the other examples Europe is now having a second wave after successfully suppressing the first one. The US has never suppressed the pandemic, or at best is now at a third wave, and thus has a currently less susceptible population from all the cases and deaths it has already had. And even then it's still having more new cases and new deaths than the well managed countries in Europe (Germany, Norway, Finland, Denmark, etc). It's hardly in a better situation right now as you claim. The worst countries in Europe are at the US accumulated average, some are catching up but the US is also spiking right now.
You have a different way of measuring the problem and you are extrapolating into the future, and that is also fine. We are just making different points.
Switzerland today:
- 4560 lab confirmed cases - 19'495 tests - 23,4% positivity rate - 299 hospitalised - 142 deaths
That's equivalent to 5400 deaths occurring today in the USA.
In recent days the USA had the following deaths: 740, 656, 1258, 1471, 1185.
So by this measure things are FOUR OR FIVE TIMES AS BAD in Switzerland as they are in the USA.
It's very easy to look up other countries e.g. Czechia where things are far worse.
You're doing math with the "Today" numbers that are not always reliable because not all US states have reported sometimes. The 7 day moving average numbers are more reliable.
It's also very easy to lookup countries like Denmark, Finland and Norway that are much much better. Picking individual small countries is not a great methodology, particularly Czechia that did extremely well in the first wave and thus has a much more susceptible population.
But back to the original argument. How are the UK, France, Poland and Italy doing? Those are big European countries.
UK: 213 deaths France: 506 deaths Poland: 357 deaths Italy: 731 deaths
231 million people, 1807 deaths, more than 2x as bad as the USA. And that's before adding Switzerland, Czechia, and other countries where things are worse.
It's also irrelevant that Czechia did well in the first wave. This is about who is doing worse right now as measured by actual humans dying. The reasons don't matter.
Picking other individual countries is a poor analysis. Take the whole EU or another group that's comparable to the US. Otherwise the same can be done for US states. But you were also given numbers for those that showed the opposite and doubled down. You already have a conclusion are are making the data fit.
> It's also irrelevant that Czechia did well in the first wave. This is about who is doing worse right now as measured by actual humans dying. The reasons don't matter.
It's not irrelevant in the context I used it. Which was to explain how you were cherry-picking a very specific case.
Look at the map. These are reasonable choices. I haven't cherry picked them, e.g. I included Germany and excluded Czechia.
This is 335M people and 2331 deaths.
That is AT LEAST DOUBLE the current daily death rate in the USA.
There are many other ways of grouping European countries to achieve the same outcome, which is to show that contrary to the original commenter's position, right now, the USA is not the worst hit place on Earth, if you measure the problem by the number of people who are currently dying every day. I live here and that is the number that matters the most.
Here is my original comment, which is totally consistent with the numbers above (with the exception of Germany as an individual nation, but this is irrelevant as it's now in the aggregate):
"This is not correct. If you adjust for population size, most of highly-developed Europe is doing much worse than the USA right now. That includes Germany, Switzerland, etc."
Of course you can select many other ways of grouping the data and many other ways of choosing the numbers to achieve the outcome you want. That is not relevant to the point I have been making.
Thanks for the discussion.
Plotted here, 1 September to present, are the largest EU states: France, Spain, UK, Germany, and Italy, vs. US. (The tool is capped at five comparisons). Shown are new daily cases, normed to population, 14 day smoothing (to clarify trend).
https://rys.io/covid/#delta,linear,permillion,date,average:1...
Substitute otheer countries as you prefer. Note that Poland, Czechia, and Switzerland have comparatively small populations (38m for Poland v. 84m for Germany).
US cases are still climbing, EU are falling. France peaked on 2 November, 14 days ago, deaths attributed to those cases are just now being reported, but willdecrease rapidly.
Meantime US cases are still growing exponentially, with over 1 million new cases (at a 3% CFR) in the past week alone.
Calling the US situation "better" than Europe is ignoring the inevitable tragedy facing the US. As with this past spring, a few weeks lag on the epidemic curve can not be represented as evidence of superior situation. The future is here, it's just distributed more in Europe than the US presently. The US will get what's due it within 2-3 weeks, possibly sooner.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25113115
You chose to redefine "worst hit", after two rounds of failing to clarify your criterion, as "deaths today".
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25117167
That basis entirely dismisses the facts that:
1. Cases today translate directly to deaths in the 2--4 week future, at a best-case rate of 0.5% CFR and far more plausibly 1.5--3% CFR, based on present reported cases.[1]
2. US new cases per capita are at least on par if not worse than Europes's.
3. EU daily case rates are trending at worst flat, and are generally decreasing.
4. US case rates are rising, at an acellerating rate.
The US today reports 158,363 new cases (7-day average), and a 3% CFR. In ~2--3 weeks, likely daily deaths will be 2,375--4,750, or 7.5--15 per million.[2]
Germany, to use your favoured example, reports 18,363 new cases (7-day average), and a 2% CFR. In ~2--3 weeks, likely daily deaths will be 367--550, 4.4--6.6 per million.[3]
All Europe reports ~220,000 new daily cases (16 Nov 2020, not smoothed). in ~2--3 weeks, likely daily deaths will be 3,300--6,600, 4.4--8.8 per million.[4]
To provide an analogy, you're laughing at Europe being in a ditch whilst the US is racing toward a cliff's edge. Assessments of present health or wealth must include obvious future consequences or risks. You entirely ignore these, and reframed the initial criterion to do so.
Your analysis suffers from presentism and risk blindness and is utterly flawed.
________________________________
Notes:
1. I'll ignore the fact that reported fatalities undercount true COVID-19 fatalities as demonstrated by overall excess deaths by about 30% per an August 2020 New York Times report and other independent studies and data.
2. Using 1.5--3% CFR.
3. Also using 1.5%--35 CFR, despite Germany's lower experienced CFR.
4. Again at 1.5--3% CFR. Based on reported values, whic undercounts recoveries, experienced CFR is ~4%.
I have already agreed that the measures you are using are also valid and that the trends are bad. However your points 1-4 are entirely about cases, trends, and the future, which has nothing to do with the point I made.
Accusing me of "laughing at Europe" is the sort of toxic rhetoric which doesn't belong on HN and frankly says more about you than it does about my argument. I live in one of the worst-hit yet most-developed countries, and some of our ICUs have run out of beds.
If by "beginning" you mean two replies into the discussion.
I have already agreed that the measures you are using...
Then why continue to argue against them?
If you re-read this thread you will see that I am not arguing against the points you made, at all. I'm saying (over and over) that you have failed to address the extremely simple point that I made. I've replied to your other comment, so let's leave it there. All the best.
At this writing, Europe as a whole has a population of 747.8 million, and 14.1 million COVID-19 cases, for a population-adjusted rate of 18,900 per million.
The US incidence rate is 34,400/1M, 182% of Europe's.
For mortality, EU: 434/1M US: 760/1M.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/europe-popula...
US has 4.23m active cases, for 12,800/1M active case rate.
Note that Spain, UK, Netherlands, and Sweden don't report on active or recovered cases. Nor does the US state of Oregon.
The margin is much thinner, though reported data still give the edge to the EU. Given that Spain and the UK represent large current EU outbreaks, that margin could shift to the advantage of the US.
I'll note that US cases are continuing to grow largely unhindered whilst several EU outbreaks (notably France) may have peaked as lockdowns' impacts are seen.
False.
Switzerland had 142 deaths in the past 24 hours. That is FOUR OR FIVE TIMES the number of daily per capita deaths in the USA at the moment. It is perfectly reasonable to believe that on this basis, Switzerland is having a tougher time right now than the USA.
I don't know why you are so doggedly refusing to accept the very simple point I have made here, which relies on nothing more than public facts and basic arithmetic.
Thanks for the discussion, but I have to assume you're not here in good faith, so I'm done. All the best.
The trouble with the developed world is that public health has been so successful that people appear to have forgotten why we need it.
Africa is also pretty easy. Median age in Africa is 19.7. Median age in Europe is 42.5. Median age in the US is 37.9. We know that young people are very unlikely to die from covid, so a place that skews so young would have fewer deaths.
Likewise, given the large number of much more lethal diseases in Africa combined with young age and poor medical facilities, people with preexisting conditions are much less common and are much more likely to be killed by other, more lethal diseases.
See: https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/nrevss/coronavirus/natl-tre...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/peru
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-afri...
The Moderna one is much easier, you just need a normal freezer. Which is fine for developed countries, will still be a challenge elsewhere (but one they're used to, it's not the first vaccine that needs to be kept cold)
If the US government is happy to hand out billions in funding and then pay a high price for the doses, why would a private company not take advantage of this?
Somehow the EU/UK convinced AstraZeneca to sell the Oxford vaccine at production cost.
Of course a country that could pay $1bn half a year ago in advance on the chance that the vaccine works will be ahead in the production queue in front of a poor country that only now puts in orders.
The US government paid Moderna $1B to fund the development and $1.5B for 100 million doses. They are paying Pfizer $1.9B for 100 million doses of their vaccine. I don't consider $25/dose (maximum) or $19/dose to be "a high price".
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus...
That said, the person I was replying to was claiming the price was too high for some developed nations.
> Moderna said it would charge other governments from $32 to $37 per dose. The charge to the United States, which has already committed about $2.5 billion to help develop Moderna’s vaccine and buy doses, comes out to about $24.80 a shot
Yes, they're expecting to profit to some degree, but those charges don't look to be particularly out of line for a newer vaccine from a quick skim of price data.
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I can't see how any developed country would choose to pass on it at that cost if available to them while others are still under development/not available in sufficient supply.
The economic damage this is causing is massive and anything that gets you past this even slightly faster is more than worth that price.
You could vaccinate the whole UK population for $2.3bn (in medication costs). The pandemic is causing vastly more economic damage than that to the UK.
Through only August, COVID has cost just the UK government (to say nothing of other economic damage) over $277bn (@current exchange rates). The vaccine could cost half, it could cost 5x as much, but it would still be absurd to do anything other than pay it and get it out to as much of your population as you can if it's available to distribute and other vaccines aren't.
Even if you've got something else in the works, if buying what you can of this gets you "reopened/normal" a month or two earlier than not, it's still an obvious economic win for any developed country.
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Source:
Vaccine pricing - Table 6 - https://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/284832/...
Moderna pricing - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/health/Covid-moderna-vacc...
Economic cost - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52663523
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-...