Literally anyone familiar with politics and economics.
At a fundamental level, industry responds to price incentives and government responds to political incentives.
At a fundamental level, industry responds to price incentives and government responds to political incentives.
* Boeing did not yet deliver commercial crew. * Antares rocket did not expand beyond ISS delivery. * Blue Origin is not yet flying, despite immense funding. * Virgin Galactic did not yet fly any customers.
The other great space launch success in the last decade was RocketLab but they're far too small to be relevant to SLS.
The real reason why everyone expected the commercial crew program to turn into big contractor grift is because they saw the same story play out 100 times before and 100 of those times the big contractors found a way to capture the money and send the project into development hell. The 101st time was different.