DoorDash S-1
sec.gov
sec.gov
"You have insanely large pools of capital creating an incredibly inefficient money-losing business model. It's used to subsidize an untenable customer expectation. You leverage a broken workforce to minimize your genuine labor expenses. The companies unload their capital cannons on customer acquisition, while this week’s Uber-Grubhub news reminds us, the only viable endgame is a promise of monopoly concentration and increased prices. But is that even viable?"
[0] https://themargins.substack.com/p/doordash-and-pizza-arbitra...
That's an alarm bell if I ever heard of it in an industry famous for losing money.
"We can't really tell you why we'll make money and nobody else will, other than that our culture is better!"
There was a talk at [Guess the programming language]-conf last year, where a director at a pretty big investment fund was talking about how their choice to use said language (as opposed to being another C++/Python shop) has very much effected their approach to finding solutions to problems for the better.
It's probably impossible to measure, but the confidence to do things differently company-wide could set you in good stead asymptotically. Even if culture just means not being Uber e.g. no "a very, very strange year at [CompanyName]" blog posts or similar.
It might be why you'd want to work there, but it's not a reason to invest there.
In the first 3 quarters of 2020, Doordash has $131 million loss on $1.9 billion revenue, and they spend $610 million on sales & marketing alone. So if they cut their sales & marketing budget 21% without doing anything else they'd be breaking even.
This seems like a healthy business that is using available VC money to grow faster rather than an inherently a money-losing business model.
generally in business management practices, not necessarily in financial reporting.
>> Our marketing efforts currently include referrals, affiliate programs, free or discount trials, partnerships, display advertising, television, billboards, radio, video, direct mail, social media, email, podcasts, hiring and classified advertisement websites, mobile “push” communications, search engine optimization, and keyword search campaigns. Our marketing initiatives may become increasingly expensive and generating a meaningful return on these initiatives may be difficult.
I think you implied that marketing is expensive for them and I think you're right. And I think the commodity job that DD does is pretty dangerous since there isn't a lot of brand power to be had. I could be wrong there since I only order delivery once every few months.
But if they have some amount of organic growth that is close to or higher than their rate of churn (which is not too crazy an assumption) then they could cut marketing spend and they would grow slower but not start shrinking.
I think that these effective consumer subsidies are included in their "sales and marketing" budget.
Promos and discounts are a core component of many (not all!) businesses.
Serious suggestion: try (your area code)-867-5309 and it will probably work.
That's not to say it's a bad thing that they are getting what they want. Not all data collection is an evil surveillance problem. Data can be useful for society too.
It isn't an achievement to gain 100% market share if each transaction makes a loss. If they try to raise prices to neutral or profitable levels it is likely that the market will shrink and competitors will charge in.
It may be that the equilibrium market is restaurants and food outlets do their own delivery for free or at cost. Then there isn't much of a market for a service like DoorDash to make a profit in.
It is possible that there is a market there and DoorDash will one day, somehow, make more money than they spend. But having a high market share is not much compensation when it requires constant losses to maintain.
My understanding is sometimes companies fudge the numbers though. If a $40 order has a $5 discount, they might consider $40 as revenue and put the $5 discount under a marketing expense
A great example of non-GAAP accounting was WeWork's "community-adjusted EBITDA." When you use non-GAAP metrics to measure your business, you get to kind of define the standard by which you're measuring yourself. You get to do things exactly like the parent suggested, where you count 100% of the income as revenue and all your incentive spending as "marketing expenses."
Uber does this too, for instance (back when it was a thing) 100% of the sticker price of an Uber Pool ride was reported as revenue while only the 30% cut of an UberX or Uber Black was reported as revenue, and yes, they would list driver incentives as marketing expenses.
Revenue is a well defined term and you can’t change the term just because you say “non-GAAP”. The SEC would step in because it’s obviously misleading.
To be clear, Uber does use non-GAAP accounting in the form of both EBITDA and "segment-adjusted EBITDA", the latter of which excludes stock comp, platform operating expenses, corporate expenses, accounting, lobbying, etc.
Regarding the SEC, they are actually quite upset about the use of non-GAAP accounting, and have begun taking enforcement action against companies which give prominence to non-GAAP numbers.
In terms of X vs Pool, it depends on the risk that the company takes. If Uber advertises a fixed price for the customer but they pay their drivers a variable cost (time and distance) then there is risk that Uber takes less money than they predicted or even a loss. That is the Principal model and they take the gross. To be extremely clear, this is what they are supposed to do under GAAP. If you look at their 10K which I’m guessing you haven’t, they don’t call the driver payouts a “marketing expense.” They call it “Cost of revenue”.
If they charge a % on the ride and there is no risk of revenues changing, it’s an Agent model and they take the net. I don’t know what the current model is, but I believe in California it’s the Agent model now. Pool used to be Principal a few years ago but again I think things have changed in California. Other countries will have different models so it’s on Uber to make sure their accounting is correct in all jurisdictions.
Whether one believes this is ok or nor, or a good to necessary is, I guess, an ideological persuasion.
In order for regulators to proactively prevent all misbehaviour such organisations would need to be impractical huge and financially inconvenient to tax payers.
Rather, society generally tolerates some level of fraud / crime / misbehaviour, probably because the benefits out weigh the costs to liberty.
If you sell something for $100 and give a future voucher for $80, you recognize $20 in revenue for this quarter and $80 liability on your balance sheet. In the next quarter when that voucher is used on another $100 purchase, you can claim $100 revenue this quarter and remove the $80 liability. But you already took the $80 hit to revenue from the voucher on the previous quarter.
If you sell something for $100 and immediately give a $80 refund then you only take a $20 revenue.
People think the SEC and accountants are dumb or blind but they aren’t. They have seen all of these tricks before and act very quickly if they see new ways to mislead.
Here's from the S-1:
> >> Our marketing efforts currently include referrals, affiliate programs, free or discount trials, partnerships, display advertising, television, billboards, radio, video, direct mail, social media, email, podcasts, hiring and classified advertisement websites, mobile “push” communications, search engine optimization, and keyword search campaigns. Our marketing initiatives may become increasingly expensive and generating a meaningful return on these initiatives may be difficult.
So they can barely be profitable (assuming they don't die overnight if they reduce marketing spending) during the out-of-this-world perfect scenario for their business caused by the social isolation? ...notice that the article didn't even bring the "perfect" situation 2020 brought them to also be able to squeeze the restaurants for insane margins.
Did you forget any disclaimer about being involved in the deal? because that was a stretch to paint it in a good color.
Not at all. If they cut this budget by 21% they would likely lose even more money. Business isn't a game where your competitors are like posts buried into the ground that can't move. All of these companies are battling for the same slices of pizza. If one backs off the others take more slices.
As a related thought: This is one of the things that lots of people don't understand about outsourcing and the migration of manufacturing to China.
One of the narratives is that companies are greedy and they went to China to lower their costs and take advantage of consumers. That couldn't be farther from the truth, which, in reality, tragic.
In any given industry there as a first mover who thought they could grab greater market share if they could lower their COGS by manufacturing in China and beat their competitors in pricing. What they did not foresee is that they triggered a chain reaction: After their move every single competitor was forced to move manufacturing to China because it was impossible to compete given the regulatory and labor constraints in places like the US and Europe.
And so, one after the other, they all followed each other off the cliff. Very soon they all found themselves manufacturing in China. They also woke up to having to sell their products at about the same prices, which means their margins were now really slim.
Years later, the factories where they all made their products decided they would now sell direct in the US and Europe and eliminate the foreign middle-men from the equation. And that's what you call being in a pickle.
Food delivery is an arms race. They are burning cash like it's free. I have no clue how it will all shake out. I don't think the math supports a business that isn't subsidized by money that is willing to burn in huge piles quarter after quarter.
Much like the migration of manufacturing to China, if one competitor turns-up marketing campaigns the others are forced to burn even more cash for even more negative returns.
Somehow we live in a world where this is called "investing". What do I know?
This type of statements and the type of people behind them are the only reason why startups are successful. On paper, two people in a garage have no chance against a multi-billion dollar conglomerate. Except that in many of those companies, there's a dude walking around and sharing those wonderfully brutal views.
Let's get very specific - why didn't Amazon launch food delivery? Clearly, they are keeping an eye on the space and are trying to make Instacart's life as difficult as possible. There's a very good chance that there's someone at Amazon who at some point said a bunch of rubbish about this idea and slowed down their expansion into this space, which is now going to be extremely expensive. But it will certainly come, and that dude will have cost his employer billions of dollars.
The same way that we drag people over the coals when their startups fail and burn millions of dollars, I think we should do the same with the people who cost their employers the same amount of money.
Everyone failed in execution because nobody has done it profitably yet. Maybe the opportunity doesn't actually exist?
> In the first 3 quarters of 2020, Doordash has $131 million loss on $1.9 billion revenue
If a startup starting from 0 can pull that off, Amazon should have been able to do (even) better with their customer base and logistics know-how + infrastructure.
As a consumer, my cost for using ten different delivery providers is nil. If there's a constant trickle of new entrants always giving away the store to attract me to sign up, I'd be stupid not to use them all.
As a restaurant or driver, they'd have to offer some very expensive incentives to make me say "DoorDash only, no UberEats/etc."
I feel like there was a large bet made on autonomous vehicles being ready before the music stops. Once you no longer have to hire human drivers, the "big ball of capital" model works better-- buy a million robovans and you can provide a service level or geographic scale no new entrant can match without a similar up-front spend..
In the 9 months ended 2020-09-30, DoorDash had a net loss of $149 million on $1,916 million in revenue (see page 93). Which implies if they can raise their revenue by ~7.78% while keeping costs steady, they can break even. Given their rate of revenue/cost increases (in the same timeframe as above compared to the 9 months ended 2019-09-30, revenue grew 326% while costs grew 192%), they could very plausibly do so within the next year.
With that said, I do think food delivery and pickup will be more popular in general after the pandemic, but I highly doubt it will ever be as commonly done as it is now.
For the record, I'm in the US; I can't speak for other countries. Notably, I was in London about a year and a half ago, takeaway and delivery already seemed to be extremely commons way to dine.
Also, delivery is only a replacement for dining out if your reason for going out is the food/drink. If, on the other hand, you dine out for the social aspect, then delivery is never going to be a replacement for you. My hunch tells me that the latter is more common, but I'm not as confident in that prediction.
Did prices go up? Nope, it was doordash.
A side of garlic sauteed edamame is $4.75 on the restaurant menu, but $7.85 on the delivery app. $7.85 isn’t too much for a good tasting side, but I am not a fan of being lied to about pricing. Felt like getting ripped off.
It obliterates my trust in today’s delivery apps and damages the value proposition.
One wonders: How much of the revenue is coming from markup in menu prices? What happens to this revenue when the average consumer grows wise to these markups?
Re: https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2020/02/27...
The markups for ordering through doordash are ridiculous. I can afford to pay $25 for a burrito, but I'm not going to do that. That's a ridiculous price for being lazy/greedy.
On the other hand... the materials cost of an egg roll in quantity 10 is $0.51 based no some research I just did. In general a restaurant should expect to price a menu item at 4X food cost, so right around the $2.00 mark.
Can you calculate how much the delivery person got out of that trip?
This forces local small places to have to raise their costs whereas the big chains cut deals with these platforms and don't have to raise their prices as their cut is much smaller.
So now if I want to buy local I am paying more for the food than I would if I went into the place. But that doesn't even then account for me having to also pay a delivery fee and a service fee. Oh and if my order is under $12? They'll slap a "small order fee" on. If I am already paying a fee to use the service on every single order, then why is the restaurant still getting screwed out of 30%? I just paid the company a fee for the service. That service fee and that cut from the restaurant is not going to the person doing the delivery work. I'm already paying for that in the delivery fee and tip.
What ever justifies a price apart from what people are willing to pay?
If the restaurants are willing to pay their part and the consumer is willing to pay their part, then the price is right. If anyone was getting 'screwed' and the price wasn't worth it they'd walk away. We're talking delivery of junk food here as well - it's not like it's an essential service.
Unfortunately you'd think it is a choice, but in today's day in age a restaurant cannot afford to skip being on the delivery apps. People are lazy and are likely to just not order from a place if they don't see it on a delivery app. No one I have talked to has ever been happy with the way the apps work. However part of the problem is that most people don't know how much these apps are screwing over the restaurant. I have talked to people who were happy to have so many options of local places on these delivery apps and were happy to be able to support them. But they did not even know that these companies were taking such a huge cut of the money that it meant those local companies often weren't making profit on the orders at all.
Even various leaders in different provinces were making statements publicly asking food delivery companies to not be greedy and to lower fees: https://mobilesyrup.com/2020/10/16/premier-ford-food-deliver...
p100 of the S1 explains their business model. DoorDash charges both the consumer and the merchant based on the order amount.
I wish I could be more specific but I’m just working here while in school. I don’t really know the full detail of what doordash charges us.
If a restaurant is just present to get existing customer orders - then they pay little, but if they want to expand their user base... marketing isn't free.
A sushi order I made last week would have been $77 (delivered) on Postmates. I ordered the same items from the restaurant directly and picked it up myself for $36. The restaurant is a 10-minute walk away.
This makes me skeptical of the business model. Those margins will absolutely get whittled down over time and these companies are already unprofitable.
Truth is - if you're paying $36+tip for the same food delivered, you're literally enabling underpayment of the delivery person.
I tend to pick up, because I really don't want to enable abusive relationship that restaurants have with their drivers.
The $36 was specifically for pickup, the restaurant doesn't offer their own delivery service as far as I know.
How much would it cost where you live?
Keep in mind 2 pieces of salmon belly nigiri will be $6-9 depending on the restaurant. And this excludes taxes, driver tip, delivery and service fees, etc.
> On a quarterly basis, our revenue increased for all quarters presented as a result of increases in Total Orders. The increase in Total Orders was primarily driven by an increase in new consumers acquired as a result of our continued expansion in our existing markets and expansion into new markets, increased engagement from existing consumers, and growth in orders completed through Drive. In the second and third quarters of 2020, these trends accelerated in part due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in in-store dining shutdowns and the adoption of shelter-in-place measures.
The pandemic has helped DoorDash. There's an increase of revenue from $362M 31.03.2020 to $879M 30.09.2020 (p128). This has also led to an increase in Working Capital $1156M at 30.09.20 from $616M (31.12.2019).
"We have a history of net losses, we anticipate increasing expenses in the future, and we may not be able to maintain or increase profitability in the future;"
"We have identified a material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting and may identify additional material weaknesses in the future or otherwise fail to maintain an effective system of internal controls, which may result in material misstatements of our consolidated financial statements or cause us to fail to meet our periodic reporting obligations;"
can anyone clue me in on whether that second part is as batshit crazy as it sounds?
Relatively recent guidance on that section: https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/09/11/sec-changes-rules...
This part makes it sound (especially the "fail to meet our [...] reporting obligations" part) like they should get their shit together before going public, and even if they didn't plan on going public, fix that right away.
Imagine if any other small company approached the government and said "Hey, we might be breaking the law, we're not fully sure. That's alright with you?". They would get the IRS after them so quickly, how come DoorDash can be open about maybe breaking the law? Bigger companies seem to constantly be above the law.
This is just CYA.
The first one is standard.
Second one is also a standard statement, but not standard to actually see. Honestly I don't know that I have ever seen that statement out in the wild. It's like something you study about in school - but rarely see.
It could mean anything, with regards to discrepancies found in the financials. The main thing is that, what was found is material - and when you are talking about numbers this big - the discrepancy must have been significant.
IE, can the entire finance department sign off on checks? Or something along those lines.
But with the above example, say anyone can process process orders without any oversight (ie no sign off by 2 VPs or something like that) What is potentially stopping some AP clerk from setting up a fake company, and then paying them for services every month?
These are also the types of things that controls over financial reporting could mean.
Is it possible to have one without the other?
Just because an AP clerk could embezzle money that way, doesn't mean that they've identified evidence of that happening. But now they've reported that lapse in financial controls (which may or may not have been addressed), and warned that there may be others.
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=%2522we%2520have%2520id...
If so, that cuts the results down from 684 to 205, of which many are from the same company, just at different times.
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=%2522may%2520identify%2...
Going from $600M to $1.9B in revenue in a year will stress any system.
Just because it has become standard operating procedure for tech companies to go public with a business model of "lose money on every sale, but make up for it in volume" (with a hope that they can sustain predatory pricing long enough to dominate the market) doesn't mean it's ever less interesting. It's a fairly recent phenomenon and IMO will never get old to comment about every time there's a notable IPO.
When a CPA firm audits a public company, they're basically performing two parallel audits -- an audit of the books and records (i.e. are the numbers accurate/truthful?) and an audit of the internal controls over financial reporting (i.e are there procedures/controls to find correct errors/fraud?) This second audit is required because of Enron, basically.
Anyway, when the auditors find a big error, they will usually tell the Company how to fix it, so the books and records are fairly stated. However, since this error usually results from a deficiency in controls (i.e. you had nothing to catch this error), it is noted on the audit report on the internal controls.
A 'material weakness' is the worst kind of deficiency in internal controls. It basically means that an enormous error could occur (enormous in the sense that it would effect an investor's decision about buying or selling the stock) and the Company wouldn't be able to catch it/fix it or even know that it happens
In the S-1 they state:
"The material weakness that we and our independent registered public accounting firm identified occurred because (i) we had inadequate processes and controls to ensure an appropriate level of precision related to our revenue to cash reconciliation process, and (ii) we did not have sufficient resources with the adequate technical skills to meet the emerging needs of our financial reporting requirements"
So it basically means their accounting team was completely overwhelmed/inexperienced. My experience with software companies is that accounting is a total shitshow, so not surprising.
The surprising thing is that this weakness must be so pervasive, they can't predict with any confidence whether they will remediate it and be able to have sufficient controls over their numbers. So it sounds like they're probably trying to completely overhaul their accounting function while they try to go public. As a potential investor, wouldn't give me a huge deal of confidence in the accuracy of their financials. Pity the poor souls trying to fix this...
"To address this material weakness, we are hiring additional accounting, engineering, and business intelligence personnel and are implementing process level and management review controls to identify and address emerging risks. While we are undertaking efforts to remediate this material weakness, we cannot predict the success of such efforts or the outcome of our assessment of the remediation efforts at this time. We can give no assurance that our efforts will remediate this deficiency in internal control over financial reporting or that additional material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting will not be identified in the future."
Sure there's a market there, but is it really big enough to sustain multiple large IPO'd start-ups...
If food (or grocery) delivery companies cannot turn a profit during a pandemic, there's no way they're going to turn a profit when the majority of people return to in person dining or pickup. Groceries and restaurants have terrible margins already. There's just not enough pie to give a meaningful slice to middle men facilitating payment and delivery.
Groupon failed because they were selling full priced items at a discount. This was meant to be a marketing thing for small businesses but in practice you just ended up with cheapskates who never intended to be repeat customers. The only thing I can say in the delivery companies defense is they have normalized large markups on delivery. People are paying more for delivery than they were before(the apps do a good job of obfuscating how much more). Clearly there was an arbitrage opportunity but there are so many companies fighting over the same tiny margin while losing tons of money. This can't end well.
Otherwise I can’t really justify spending $25 to get a burrito delivered. Amazing that people have normalized paying for the insane number of fees plus tip to get one thing delivered.
DashPass is $10/mo which which turns every delivery into ~$1+tip. The idea that I can buy 30min-1hour of a real human's time and labor for $3-4 to deliver me food is silly.
My usual Indian take-out order is $16 if I spend 40 minutes for the round trip or $18 to get someone to deliver it to me.
Delivery fee + service fee + tip meant I still ended up paying $18 for the service. I can't imagine I'd ever be a buyer at the full price.
Also in my experience (in Chicago) the food in the app costed $1-2 more per item (this wasn't listed anywhere, but if you compare the cost with what the resturant charged it was a lot more).
Also there was at least one resturant that I visited that would give you less if you ordered through a delivery app to make up for the fact that they had to pay a fee. This is shady and shitty on the resturant's part and not really DD's fault (although frankly it's kind of predictable) but it was still a thing that happened when I used the app.
I haven't used it for about a year though (because of the above shady practices) so they might have changed.
I don't like that they inflate prices and will not order directly from them because of it. They should be transparent about how much their service costs rather than hiding the true cost of their service in the item prices. I feel like it's likely their fault and not the restaurants since it seems like every restaurant has inflated doordash prices. My only theory is that they may be charging the business service fees in addition to the service/delivery fees they charge the customer.
They do white label delivery for a fast food restaurant I order from. I've had it take 2 hours to deliver multiple times and even had one order get cancelled by doordash after they couldn't get anyone to pick up the order. Most of that delivery time is made up of it switching between multiple people who they expect to pick up my order. Once someone actually picks up my order it only takes about 5 minutes to get to me.
- $2.03 for the burrito (vs 1.29 in store)
- $2.99 for fees and taxes
- $3.99 for the delivery fee
- $2 for the dash tip??? Is 20% customary? It's the lowest dash suggests.
- $11.01 for your burrito
So, for your $1.29 burrito, the price of the item is jacked up by nearly 60% to start. And slam fees, taxes, tips, and you're talking about a total that's 800% higher than the actual item.It's ludicrous. They're catching you at every point to extract cash. Yes, a human delivered something to you, but for the cash conscious, this is an absurdly expensive tilt.
- $15+2 for say, pad thai + taxes - $4 for delivery - $3 for tip
I'm not saying that paying 40% extra for food is a reasonable decision for most people, but (a) I can afford to pay $7 to avoid traveling across town for a specific meal I want, and (b) these numbers get even better with a larger order. If you're the consumer that wants a single $2 bean burrito, the market answer is clearly that you should put a dozen in your freezer and microwave them yourself.
I also think the Doordash business model is not super valuable, but it clearly has some value. Restaurants make an increasing portion of their revenue from delivery (especially during COVID), and having to staff, manage, and route a delivery person themselves is not their core competency. Does signing up with Doordash marginally increase revenue? Yes.
I feel like every time I tap the screen while using a delivery app I get charged a dollar
This comes out to a real marginal difference of about 4-6$, which I don't really care about.
Edit: people keep mentioning markups. I see those much more often on GrubHub (actually, every place is marked up on GrubHub except big chains), but don't see markups my regular set of local restaurants.
Seems like free DashPass is valid only for a year.
> Complimentary DashPass Subscription for Chase Sapphire Reserve and Preferred cardmembers: Your Chase Sapphire account will receive one complimentary DashPass subscription from DoorDash for at least 12 months when the subscription is activated by 12/31/21. After the DashPass discounted period ends, you can choose to continue to be enrolled and charged the then current monthly DashPass rate
They also have an offer for the Freedom and Slate cards (which have no annual fee) albeit free DashPass only for the first 3 months and a 50% discount for the next 9. So, still a good deal overall when compared to paying $9.99 every month. Thanks!
In many cases there's a markup on the food over the restaurant's prices. There's delivery fee that's generally $2-$3, a service fee that's hidden in the "taxes and fees line item", not to mention a small order fee etc on some orders. And, of course the tip. This I do not understand. It went from tipping the waiter a bit more because you were well taken care of at the restaurant dining experience, to pre-paying a tip to the driver before knowing if the food's good or if the delivery is late etc. The restaurant doesn't get any of the tip. Anyway, a subsided food delivery that you got is not sustainable.
To be honest I do not understand the tipping culture at all. Its expected to tip a restaurant staff if you eat at the restaurant, but not if you get the food delivered. But, expected to pre-pay a tip the driver who delivered the food (irrespective of quality of food or delivery) but not the USPS/UPS/fedex driver who delivered anything else even if he/she carries a heavy package over a flight of stairs. Its expected to tip a uber/lyft driver even on a shared ride with other folks but not a bus/metro/train driver. None of it makes sense to me :)
I'm not defending the tipping pay structure, but it's certainly not some confusing mystery.
The other thing to think about is people are probably just shifting money from eating out, to delivery. I mean you could go to Chili's and spend $50 for two people, or you could get Chipotle delivered for $30.
There are also the shrinking frugal demographic like me who can afford a $25 burrito, but out of principle would absolutely not pay that much for a bunch of beans wrapped in a tortilla, microwaved for 1 minute.
My overarching point being that if people can barely afford the current VC subsidized food delivery prices, what is the possible market size for non VC subsidized food delivery?
Edit: I don’t see a source for 42M Americans having incomes over $100k per year. This source says 15.5% of US households had incomes over $100k, and at 128M households, that is 20M households with incomes over $100k.
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/p60/270...
I went to lunch with a girl who worked at a Bestbuy. She spent the entire time trying out figure out how the a group of current BestBuy employees nearby at the restaurant could afford the food (overpriced $20 meal) for such a causal meal.
My former landlord financed everything she ever did, including her damn electronics she would throw away or break in a year. She was a widow, on social security and was cheated out of a pension. I have no idea how her monthly payments weren't thousands per month.
Americans fucking suck at financial literacy and trap themselves in debt pits. Alternatively, people spend themselves silly without stepping back and realizing their savings is staying at $0 by living larger than they should if they want savings to go up.
Yet, 4 out of 5 Americans live paycheck to paycheck, and 3 in 10 have no emergency savings at all.
The numbers will vary based upon what study/report you read, but the message is clear that the majority of people are not making financially sound decisions.
Living paycheck to paycheck can happen even if you're making 400-500k. I've seen people do it.
You can have no emergency savings (at all) and be making $100k+.
It's pretty easy - spend everything you have (often on "dumb" things like expensive takeout for every meal, a lease on a car you don't need, more house than you can afford, refreshing electronics constantly for no reason, etc.).
The reasons usually boil down to lack of emotional regulation and/or bad spending habits, not lack of income - though it is easier to do with low income, as the margins are smaller.
Same thing in Seattle, Los Angeles, Portland, NYC, Chicago, pretty much any major city. Which is also where a lot of economic activity comes from.
Doordash is really hard for me to justify, I only use it when given gift cards etc. It can literally double the price of a meal (a $20 mcdonalds order becomes $35-40). Even during covid I still generally do curbside because that feels like a very minimal risk.
Post-covid, I'll probably use instacart/shipt maybe once or twice a year - I'm 100% sure there will be times where for whatever reason I just can't get out and the world will end if we run out of milk for the kids. But when there's not a pandemic on, taking the kids to the grocery store knocks out so many birds with one stone:
* kids get to get used to the grocery store experience
* we get groceries
* my wife gets a break
Also noteworthy: Shipt didn't respect any of my store's B1G1 offers. It didn't even appear in their system while shopping (Instacart did). I actually know a Shipt shopper that was getting free stuff all the time because of this.
If you're strapped for time but still want to stay safe and save money, consider stores that have curb side service like Wal-Mart. You get in store prices with no extra fees and no-contact hand off.
Not sure about prices but I didn't really have a choice.
FWIW though I do mainly use instacart, since my amex card counts them as a grocery store/supermarket, I get my 6% cashback.
Obligatory note that many people order more than one thing, and that some people eat things that are more expensive than burritos. The fees to order a single $7 burrito and 5 x $20 meals are similar in absolute $ terms. And of course, many of the popular services have effectively capped delivery fees at ~$10/mo so ordering once weekly brings the delivery fee down to ~$2.50.
On a side note, I've noticed that most restaurants around me will add $3-4 per dish when using Uber Eats vs. just calling them directly.
"Amazing that people have normalized..." something that is ridiculously convenient and comes at a marginal additional cost? I'm no more amazed at that than wash-n-fold laundry or taxi service.
Isn't the point of takeaway that you get hot fresh food without having to prep it? 'Stocking up' on takeaway seems counterproductive.
Which the vast bulk of people don't use either. I'm sure there's some market and I've seen market research that suggests grocery delivery is something that will hang around at higher levels post-COVID. (Though the same report also highlighted home cooking, not food delivery.)
I admittedly don't have great food delivery options where I live. But getting most prepared food delivered isn't something I find very interesting at all.
Who the hell said they did? These are long-standing and economically viable businesses - that was my only point.
Sometimes groups will order, but in my experience they do not.
>Amazing that people have normalized paying for the insane number of fees plus tip to get one thing delivered.
By the same token, you can ask why people eat out in restaurants given how much more expensive it is compared to cooking at home. I take your point about the expense though. If you habitually get delivery, it will add up to significant sums .. but then again, so does eating out.
There is no middleman sucking a bunch of money out of my community.
If I'm paying a delivery fee + tip, you better at least get it to my door. That has less than a 50% chance of happening with these services. These days, it's cheaper, faster, and safer to pick it up myself.
When you look at the numbers in aggregate, it appears they are massively unprofitable. When you look at the numbers by cohort, it's clear they are investing money in sales and marketing and based on their metrics, they will generate a significant return on their investment over the next few years. Over time, as a larger and larger percentage of their users become recurring users, their profit on each order will approach 8%.
By everything I see, they are a company that pays people to deliver stuff. That is a very crowded marketplace. Without groundbreaking innovation the likes of which companies an order of magnitude bigger have failed to deliver (like Uber and self-driving cars), I personally don't see how they create a revenue stream as lucrative as AWS.
Look at how many things are excluded in contribution profits:
"We define Contribution Profit (Loss) as our gross profit (loss) less sales and marketing expense plus (i) depreciation and amortization expense related to cost of revenue, (ii) stock-based compensation expense included in cost of revenue and sales and marketing expenses, and (iii) allocated overhead included in cost of revenue and sales and marketing expenses. "
So basically if you don't count any indirect COGS, you don't count the RSUs you're paying the engineers and you don't count the capitalized costs of your infrastructure, you can eek out an operating profit. In my view, that's not a "profit."
"Well you see, if you only count about 1/3 of the compensation we pay engineers, ignore bonuses, etc, we've got us a great business!"
You do an IPO to scale. Once you scale, the relative costs of systems and engineering 'disappears'.
In terms of profitability. Everyone is used to success stories of 50% margin. That's not the norm though. In retail 8% is not bad. Especially since you're hoping to get 8% of a huge market.
You worry about the entrepreneur who asks the Venture Capitalist, and their MO is 'take on <DoorDash/etc>'. Instead of worrying about our hypothetical entrepreneur with a lousy funding rationale, I worry about the structure of the market proving it's 100% inevitable someone will try and undercut them, by virtue of the magnitude of malinvestment present today.
And of course this plague is not carried in food.
And so them (and postmates, and instacart, and shipt, and local booze deliveries) have been extremely important because it reducecs the attack vector. Call me paranoid, but I can at least hae some control over the groceries sent to me, and for example. It's simply a tradeoff I'm willing to make. At once point, I couldn't even even properly update my will even though I'm a lawyer because I wanted to be prepared but not even my friends from school who are in the field were willing to come to my house, with the quarantine complicating things. since it was felt tha the 14 day window was arbitrary and I didn't get full blown symptoms until day 8-9.Under these cirucmstances every precaution, in my personal view, as long as it's a precaution that isn't conjured out of thin air and backed by some level of indication of efficacy that skews towards minimizing potential vectors of re-infection. It's not failsafe - my then-girlfriend, was asympomatic, gave mteh rvirus, and there wasn't any way in those days to even know or sure what do to, but as Don Draper said in Mad Men: "Limit your exposure".
This is the main reason why food delivery makes sense to my situation.
https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/8/20/20825937/doordash-tippi...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/charlesradclyffe/2018/10/16/tip...
And have manipulated search rankings to force people to use their service when they think they are talking to the restaurant:
https://www.wxyz.com/news/doordash-is-delivering-food-withou...
Than bully restaurants:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/04/14/doordash-gru...
I an good conscious can't use them.
In addition, the argument that the customer is minimally exposed is, to me, an incredibly selfish argument. Yes you the customer may be less exposed, but at the expense of the driver (who now goes to multiple restaurants and multiple houses), and the restaurant (who also has to interact with those drivers).
I personally do carry out from restaurants, and done properly, carry the same risk exposure as delivery to the customer (e.g. putting the food in the trunk of your car, placing the order in the front door and allowing you to get it at a safe distance).
I am mostly doing the same: I understand what Uber is doing, but it's just so much more convenient than your old-school taxi company. However, to play the devil's advocate, this strategy could be a myopic one. As a consumer you should be supporting competition. Such VC Ponzi schemes are ultimately about demolishing competition, and then leveraging the achieved dominance on the market at consumer's expense. Should we be more careful about jumping into these, and sacrifice short-term convenience for longer-term interests if we can?
I don't know what Uber software engineers are doing, but it doesn't seem to me that they really care about user experience (not UI, which I don't care about, as that doesn't make me late for a hospital appointment).
There are still two large costs that may not be there in the future. The human driver and the heavy restaurant overhead of being located in premium retail space instead of behind the gravel pit.
Personally, I think companies like DoorDash set a really dark precedent for the future of work in the US. Their primary value as a company is their ability to manipulate how thousands of people get paid, not to ensure top quality service.
EDIT: To those who ask why, you cannot trust the app to disburse the "tip" to the worker.
The societally disruptive idea of not paying your workers is the great "innovation" of the gig economy. The oldest grift there ever was.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/charlesradclyffe/2018/10/16/tip...
https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/8/20/20825937/doordash-tippi...
It's just moaning about the bad UX deliveroo has and using made up figures.
All he says is that he's guessing 5-10% of people tip, and the default tip is only 10% therefore the gig workers are only getting 1% on AVERAGE.
It makes no claims of stealing, there are ZERO articles on the search backing up your claim, and only a few Reddit posts from riders who thought that maybe one-time, deliveroo didn't give them their tip in a complicated set of circumstances that was probably simple user-error.
I'm not a fan of the gig economy, I know the previously some other companies in America stole tips, but you've made a totally unsubstantiated, libellous claim about Deliveroo there.
This is part of the reason why there's this whole struggle to define what exactly the gig-economy worker contract is supposed to look like, because they're not paid hourly and it's often net negative for full-timers, who do exist.
Also to clarify a point made in the article; this is not the equivalent to a tipped wage. With a tip wage you already know what your base pay is up front, and tips are additive; what DoorDash was doing was deducting tip from some set base pay. Fortunately I live in a state that does not differentiate tipped and regular wage.
With all that said, tipping seems to be a weird cultural holdover where employers can keep labor rates down via a quasi-voluntary tax
The reality is that $1 + tips almost never makes it to $15, so they always pay them $15 an hour.
If you tip $5, they get $1 + $5 (from you) + $9 (from the company).
If you tip $0, they get $1 + $14 (from the company).
This is a shitty system designed to get you to offset company expenses.
In a well-designed system they should not pay them $1 + 100% of the tips, they should pay them $15 + 100% of the tips and where tips are truly optional.
I think where we may disagree is that my main concern is that the employee makes that minimum threshold, whether paid directly by the customer via a weird quasi-voluntary tax or by the employer who would presumably pass that cost on to the customer. Again, assuming it all gets claimed in income I don't see any shortfalls; it's just a weird convention.
Where I may have a problem is that there seems to be some evidence there is bias in tipping. I've seen some that indicates some race groups/protected classes are tipped less, controlling for service quality, even by their own race/class. If true, it would mean tipping is a de-facto form of discrimination and obviously needs to go away.
I would consider unethical when the result of me tipping vs. me not tipping is the same outcome for the driver. If it is advertised as a "tip" box, it should result in exactly that amount of gain to the driver than if $0 were entered in that box. How much you, the corporation, pays, should never depend on what I fill in for the tips.
Also, if the company can pay $15, they should pay $15, and recruiting me to pay part of that $15 under the guise of "tips" is unethical IMO. Call it a delivery fee and charge a fixed amount.
If you are asking me how much extra I want to pay in tips to a driver (10%, 15%, or 20%), I would be sympathetic to gig workers, because you're an asshole for paying them a $1 base wage.
If you are asking me how much extra I want pay to your asshole corporation, the answer will always be 0%. I don't want to pay any extra to your corporation. Name your lowest price that would keep your company afloat and I'll decide if I want the service or not.
This doesn't hold unless you think profits should be driven to zero. Any profit would mean an additional wage being withheld. I may not understand the dynamic here, but my understanding is that tip laws ensure that if the employee comes in under $15, the company makes up the difference.
I've alluded to it a few times, but I think we disagree in that tipping is a quasi-voluntary tax. A tax is a fee paid to subsidize a service. That tax, in this case, subsidizes fare charges by reducing overhead labor costs. If you want to not tip, you should pay a higher fare because otherwise those who do tip are subsidizing your ride. I don't think it's unethical just because it's called a "tip" unless you assume people don't understand how the tipping system works. If your claim is it allows a corporation to make an unfair profit, I'm not sure I'm tracking the logic of that argument because the tax in this case is entirely voluntary. Where I have an ethical problem is when wages are suppressed so much that the public must subsidize employee wages in the form of government benefits. In that case, non-customers are subsidizing the company profits; since they are not consumers of that company, it makes it a compulsory tax to protect their profit. This is entirely different than a voluntary tax on those who use the service.
Personally, I would prefer tipping in general to be banned because it's a clunky, inefficient system. It's much more transparent and straightforward to just have a fair wage without all the game theory that comes along with a convoluted system of tipping.
100% agree with this.
Tip is not supposed to be deducted from a standard rate of pay.
The resulting backlash from consumers was severe enough that at least one company operating in this space changed the policy: https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/22/20703434/delivery-app-tip...
It's worth noting that the law is still changing in the area; gig-economy workers in California were classified as employees by the courts, but then this got overturned by a voter initiative, so there are no solid answers as we continue political campaigns and litigation.
We Americans really need a way to tip via app. I wish cryptocurrency was viable, because the POS ecosystem (Toast, Square, Clover, etc) is fragmented and takes a cut, the gig-app ordering systems take an even bigger cut, and it's just awfully annoying to have paper cash on hand. Crypto has yet to make any firm inroads though.
It'll even be a great day for those who rely on gratituity when the US decides to mint $2 and/or $5 coins. $1 coins are so hard to come by and people think they're such a novelty yet they're immensely more useful, more durable, cleaner, and denser (10 $1 bills bursts my wallet and eventually turns into a chaotic mess in my pocket when I don't have time at the register to nicely stack and fold them back into my wallet; 10 $1 coins in my pocket is far more manageable.)
What we really need is to change culture so that it's considered totally unacceptable for a business to pay service workers far below minimum wage, and rely on customers to make up the difference individually. I'm not Mr. Pink--I tip, but with full knowledge that all it's doing is enriching the business owner, who, instead of paying their staff properly, pockets an extra few dollars an hour instead.
https://help.doordash.com/dashers/s/article/How-is-Dasher-pa....
https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/8/20/20825937/doordash-tippi...
This is very, very bad advice.
DD drivers filter out customers based on the size of the tip. If drivers see only base pay in the app, they will pass over your delivery request for more lucrative ones, meaning your food will take longer to get picked up and delivered, and in some cases, may not get delivered at all.
If the food arrived or I got to my destination I give the same, good, tip. I think it's gross to make workers dance for their supper. It's not "a little extra you're paying to a kid in highshcool" anymore, it's almost their entire income.
But! BUT! This is a top-down change that has to has to come from leadership. Trying to do this by just not tipping or being a bad tipper does nothing except punish the poorest people.
It's a great question, and there's no simple answer that will satisfy anyone. Suffice it to say that I have my own interpretation. Take it for what you will:
1. DD (and other gig economy) apps, have redefined the concept of a tip to subsidize the low wages paid to gig workers.
2. When gig economy workers see the tip in advance of their gig, it acts as an incentive to complete the task. For example, the higher the tip, the farther a DD driver will go, the more items they will deliver, and the better service they (should) provide.
3. In this particular case, the DD customer can still rate the driver after the delivery is complete. If their rating drops below a certain level, or if they receive a contract violation three times in 100 orders, they will face deactivation from the platform.
4. Currently, Lyft and Uber both delay tips to drivers depending on different circumstances. Tips could be delayed anywhere from minutes to hours to days, and this tends to de-incentivize drivers and could lead to diminished quality of service. DD, on the other hand, has found a strategy that both incentivizes drivers and promotes increased customer and driver satisfaction.
The odds of DoorDash lying about tip distribution are basically 0.
"That’s right — the more you tip in-app on DoorDash, the less DoorDash pays the worker."
You don't get to act as though your behavior is a categorical imperative if you don't participate in writing laws that make such imperatives a reality. You do not live as Robinson Crusoe, Chuck Noland, or even Richard Hatch did.
"Categorical imperative" is just a bad translation of "Law" which is a perfectly cromulent word.
Price(A) > Price(B)
=>
B > A
--------------------
Simplification aside, tipping is a service as well. The tipper "feels" good about tipping, the same way people donate or buy because of donations when there are such campaigns. For a lot of people the utility of that is close to 0, so they don't tip. For some its very high.
So it makes sense to have tipping as a way to implement price differentiation.
This would be true if tipping was optional, rather than expected. But this isn't even close to how things work in the US. In the US, you tip so that the restaurant can advertise lower prices on their menu. That's it. They tell you a burger costs $12, when in reality it costs $15. And if you decide to only pay $12 instead of $15 the restaurant just makes the waiter eat the cost.
Price discrimination means you can sell at a lower price to customers who might will not buy otherwise.
There is no price obfuscation.
I think in a world where people made enough money to eat and we didn't outlaw the stupid penny, we could keep all the pennies and offer them to people as tokens of our appreciation, then it's operating as a symbol and the emotional purpose is served without people who don't want to tip feeling expected to support people's lives all of the sudden at the end of the meal.
Our current system makes thoughtful, considerate people feel guilty if they don't want to tip deep down but feel they ought to.
Steve Martin's My Blue Heaven deals with the problem of wanting to express gratitude and joy to people in a world where everything is officious and transactional
I tip quite a bit now that I'm back in the US, but I prefer restaurants where servers were paid a better wage and their service was baked in to the cost of the meal.
The correct place for this implementation is in legislation or in free markets.
If we as society deem it necessary, legislation.
If we as society stopped being tricked into tipping as you are suggesting, and the effective wage was low to the point of triggering necessary business changes, the free markets will do their work.
Tipping is an entirely broken concept for the deliver model and arguing for customers to tip more or via cash is further incentivizing the model.
In merit and morality I agree, these are nice, hard working people that choose a profession that cannot meet their financial needs. I don't have an perfect answer for it either, I just see the glaring elephant in the room.
Just because our regulatory frameworks allow DoorDash's workers to be taken advantage up does not mean that these apps have no value. DoorDash & others basically fed the whole young, well-off, urban dweller population that can't cook during lock down.
Our legal system supports companies making the most money the market will allow, if they paid more then the market for delivery drivers the executive that made that decision would be fired.
You aren't supporting exploitative practices by using DoorDash, you're giving somebody a job where they otherwise they wouldn't have any. You're funneling money from affluent city dwellers to the pockets of DoorDash's share holders yes, but also to their delivery drivers.
Attacking a company for creating jobs where there weren't any before is silly. Attack the issues with the legal framework, not the people that are using it as designed.
Laziness is an adaption, and we adapt to whatever level of effort is required. Money is just an intangible so it's easy to be wasteful with it when it pretty much doesn't exist and is just a number somewhere we can't see.
But if a particular luxury disappeared, you'd adapt just fine.
The fact that they don't make a profit even with shitty labor practices probably means it's not very sustainable, in the same way that WeWork filled a need but was ultimately not sustainable.
But the evidence suggests that given US labor costs and relative equality for much of the population, it's generally hard for middle-class or even upper-middle class to justify paying people to run errands for them generally. I'm not sure the economics of fast delivery are all that different from when kozmo.com was around.
For example, there's probably a pretty robust market for a personal chef to come by your house and cook you a gourmet meal for $5. And private jets for the same price as commercial? Sign me up.
WeWork showed that individuals want and are willing to pay for communal office space and that small companies want and are willing to pay for "slices" of that space.
DoorDash (and the like) shows that people want and are willing to pay for more than just pizza and American-Chinese takeout and restaurants were willing to take a large percent cut for delivery-as-a-service.
Regus existed long before WeWork--as did many local spaces. I guess WeWork demonstrated that there was a market for "cooler" co-working spaces at scale.
As for DoorDash? People clearly want all sorts of rapid delivery and especially younger people who hate calling up a place really want to order through a consolidated web site. I'm not sure that's a revelation. The question is whether the economics broadly work out which is really not proven yet.
The value proposition that has changed with the delivery apps is that lots of restaurants can share the cost of a large pool of drivers with an app that can sufficiently allocate routes. This isn't a proposition that has actually been profitable yet, though, and really the only thing that makes this situation unique is that we are now in an unprecedented situation where indoor dining is recommended against and in some cases heavily restricted or banned entirely. Presumably when restaurants are free to operate traditionally again they might not find having such a low-margin delivery arm so great, and they will leave. Anecdotally, some restaurants did this in my area when lockdowns were eased up.
Separately, I really don't understand this tipping economy at all. Aren't tips supposed to be based on quality of service? Why do they ask you for the tip amount before you have received service? They should just charge a fair amount and pay drivers a fair amount and not over-complicate the checkout process.
In general I absolutely hate "how much do you want to pay" type interfaces. I really hate thinking about that stuff. Just give me a number and I'll decide if I want the product or not -- that's how the rest of the world works.
One supposed origin of the word TIP is "To Ensure Proper Service. Ask people who are old enough and they'll tell you about how a tip was put on a table at the beginning of a meal. Today that's extremely rude, but it was common in certain areas.
- the opponent will flee or - the opponent will fight to the death
Don't you think that would affect the attacking party's plans?
By tipping you are directly subsidizing doordash
Not if they can't find other work (like now where un-employment is high).
Clearly it would be better if they were compensated fairly and I didn’t have to try to even it out with tips
But then again, maybe this would create an incentive for delivery services to raise costs for restaurants?
tipping in general stinks and you should really set tip to $0. the driver sees the tip in advance and can take or not take the delivery. but then tip in cash if you want.
A few years ago I would routinely use Seamless to order delivery or carry out 3-4x a week, but in the past year or so I noticed enormous service fees added onto transactions (making a $12 burger cost more like $22 all in). As such, I've pivoted away from using these apps and try to order directly from restaurants websites, usually via ChowNow.
Do not use or support these pretatory businesses even if you get freebies. By using them you turn them into something people can't do without and laws get changed to make the exploitation permanently legal.
1. The food is wrong often. Whether it’s the dasher’s fault or the app’s or the restaurant’s who knows, but it happens too frequently. Granted DD gives an automatic refund in credits but our meal is ruined at that point and no one wants to wait another hour to roll the dice on a DD order.
2. All the good restaurants are leaving DoorDash. Maybe this is more so a trend in my town but at the beginning of COVID there were lots of great restaurants on it and now there’s just chains like Chipotle and McDonalds. Apparently it’s not just DD that loses money on these orders.
Now I will just call the restaurant directly and pick it up myself. Much better quality control, timing, cost and selection.
I once couldn't get a hold of my driver after opening the bag and seeing 1/2 my order was missing. Number was disconnected, and couldn't text it either.
#2 is because apparently DoorDash and Uber Eats takes 30-40% commission on the order! How are they even able to get away with this robbery, especially in an industry that already has low margins (apparently).
The dasher doesn't actually order or make your food, they just pick it up and drive it to you... AFAIK the restaurant has an app aka "the tablet" which they receive orders on that they can press a "ready in 15 minutes" button on when the order is ready.
For any VCs out there, I have a half baked AI for Dogs app I coded in 20 minutes so please wire me $50M, it'll cost you less than what you wasted so far in 2020, thanks.
snowflake?
I am cautiously optimistic about their ability to be a sustainable business.
Then I read about the Doordash tip controversy and that made my decision final.
I hope they use this capital to do more expansion. Grubhub at least provides me with the local VFW.
Also, how is DoorDash still unprofitable, despite taking 30% commissions from restaurants, and 25% commissions from delivery costs, during a pandemic which has many people locked inside??? It's like the Quibi excuse but somehow worse.
I ask their customer support chat, who told me they'd be in touch in 24 hours.
24 hours later I indeed got an email:
"I've looked into your account and our system shows your account has been deactivated due to account activity that violates our Terms and Conditions of Use."
I asked what ToS I violated, but never got an answer. Some research shows I'm not the only one in this situation. What a weird thing to do.
I deleted the app.
I was left wondering who actually prepared the food. The branding on the bag was like 50/50 Doordash and the restaurant (Burma Superstar).
Being in the minority doesn't mean the other side cheated.
I think there are perfectly good reasons to distrust democracy. especially in the information age.
It was a cheap way for VC-backed companies to "buy" a legal method to skirt existing labor laws and regulations. This is the antithesis of democracy.
You planning for some algo-trades on doordash? ;P
btw , how is Uber stock doing these days ?