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Comment by tshaddox | Hacker News Reader

What does "coastal/urban elites" mean? Just anyone who lives in a coastal or urban area? 80% of the American population lives in urban areas, and that's only going to increase when you include whatever your definition of "coastal" is. Where does the "elite" factor in?

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Where does the "elite" factor in?

As a rough approximation, almost everyone in your social circles having a college degree.

Except that’s really not what the statistics show. Republicans gain a majority of support from high school graduates, individuals with some college experience, and college graduates. People without a high school degree or with a post graduate degree favor Democrats.

An individual’s likelihood of being a Democrat decreases with every additional dollar he or she earns. Democrats have a huge advantage (63 percent) with voters earning less than $15,000 per year. This advantage carries forward for individuals earning up to $50,000 per year, and then turns in the Republicans’ favor — with just 36 percent of individuals earning more than $200,000 per year supporting Democrats.

https://www.debt.org/faqs/americans-in-debt/economic-demogra...

None of those statements is consistent with the Pew Research data on partisan identification among the electorate. E.g. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v58Nt6SW832ZUq7xLI6N... for 2019 demographic breakdowns.

Partisan identification is very different from voting. That has 29% of the population Republican and 34% independent which is wildly outside how people actually vote.

A large slice of voters self identify as independent, but their voting habits don’t match that self identification. It’s that classic independent streak myth so popular among Americans.

This is inaccurate based on latest elections. There isn't full data for 2020 but in 2016 college educated voted Dem +9.

"In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. College graduates backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trum...

On the other hand from that source white college graduates backed Trump by a 4 point margin.

Trump had unusual support among the uneducated and a strong dislike among the educated. Presumably from his long run on TV. Here are some more typical results.

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exi...

  No college degree Obama: 51%
  Some college Obama: 49%. 
  College Romney: 51%
  Postgrad. Obama: 55%

Though this varies by election with the numbers moving a little based on who wins. Obama had a large popular vote lead which flipped the some collage group.

PS: Split tickets in 2020 are another indicator of more topical voting behavior.

A college degree sounds like a laughably low bar for being considered "elite." 27% of American adults have college degrees. In a state like Missouri which is presumably not considered a particularly liberal or Democratic or "elite" state, over 50% of adults have college degrees.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territ... I see 31% for the US and 28% for Missouri. Regardless, the key point is "almost everyone in your social circle".

Another key point is that 31 and 28 are well short of 51.

What's the plan to get there?

Oops, not sure where I found that Missouri figure, but it looks like you're right. Still, one quarter to one third of the population doesn't fit what I would remotely consider to be "elite." And why is "almost everyone in your social circle" relevant? I don't think people generally use the word "elite" to refer to the ability to make friends from among a specific third of the national population.

Still, one quarter to one third of the population doesn't fit what I would remotely consider to be "elite." And why is "almost everyone in your social circle" relevant?

It's one thing if you have a college degree and half of your acquaintances don't. It's another if you rarely have meaningful interactions with anyone who doesn't; in that case you're in a subculture that has very different experiences than the average American.

Okay, I’m on board with “very different experiences than the average American,” but that’s not what “elite” means.

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