One year after iPad: Is Adobe Flash still relevant?
zdnet.com
zdnet.com
It will take a lot more than the ipad to kill Flash, it will take people to build alternate tools that allow easy creation of interactive content... not a device that doesn't support the standard (standard is in italics because it isn't technically the standard, but it's what lots of people use, the majority anyway)
An example of this from today: http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/h1mc6/interacti... and then http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/h1mc6/interacti...
I'm still surprised that there isn't a more concerted effort to get Flash on more devices. HTML 5 is literally almost a decade behind Flash (Flash 7 feels like the closest, which was 2003).
The HTML standards body just moves too slow (basically all standards bodies do, its the nature of the beast). Look at how Silverlight has changed since its been released, compared to HTML.
I'm personally a fan of the plugin model in general. I feel like the only thing browsers should have is HTML/CSS and a way to talk to the DOM (maybe treat the DOM as a RESTful service). And then plugins that can be hosted for things like Javascript, C#, Flash, etc...
All the attempts so far have been, um, less than stellar. Considering that Adobe and mobile OS providers have a strong incentive to make it work (basically to stick it to the iPad) and it hasn't happened yet would seem to strongly indicate that the Flash codebase, as it stands, is simply too complex or possibly too messy to make it work reasonably well on mobile platforms. They may have to just throw it away and start from scratch.
Personally, I would rather see a concerted effort to make HTML5 and related technology/tools catch up to where Flash currently stands. (They have a ways to go as the OP has mentioned)
> HTML 5 is literally almost a decade behind Flash
It's not about Flash vs. HTML5 as many think. It's about flash vs. native apps.Once devices that don't support Flash become pervasive enough, everyone will have to write their flash-based web sites to support them. For most sites, this would mean using HTML5 (or related technologies), not writing a separate app that would require a developer license, approval, forking the codebase, etc...
Fact is, with all the android devices out there, Flash is a joke. Initial impressions are proving Steve Jobs right, future technical advances will have a steep slope to prove otherwise.
50% of Facebook logins are specifically to play games. Most of those games are Flash. (source: http://socialtimes.com/facebook-gamers-hours-per-month_b2415... )
Future Proof? No. (At least for the general web.)
Yet, I see a very bright future for Adobe. +1 for CS5.5 PhoneGap integration and subscription pricing.
The fact is that JS/Canvas is where Flash was 8 years ago. And when they finally finalize the HTML5 spec Flash will be someplace else again.
Flash runs fine on my Nook Color, without destroying it. Eventually the competing tablets might coax Apple to embrace Flash at some point. Or not...
Unfortunately, as I have noted earlier, Google is also 100 percent guilty of this as well."
It all depends on how Adobe is willing to adapt. It's easy to blame Google and Apple because we only know one side of the story. Linux sources are available but the Flashplayer still sucks on Linux. Android sources are also available. So I'm not sure about the 100%.
http://arstechnica.com/web/news/2009/07/apple-proposes-http-...
It's got nothing to do with HTML5 though, which I think is a good thing.