Toyota president: Tesla has 'not created a real business in the real world yet'
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
Toyota employs far more people, produces cars that are incredibly low-key yet functional, and is backed by robust teams that work incredibly well together, as opposed to Tesla, which is generally functioning okay, but operates largely at the whims of Musk, much as Ford did back in the day. Which works for a while, but is not a sustainable mode for innovation. Apple is a semi-notable exception to this rule, of course, so we'll see what happens. But again, rooting for Toyota.
Despite the success of the Prius, Toyota made a decision to focus exclusively on fuel cell technology and wasted ten precious years. After Toyota lost that bet, Tesla's superior EV technology could have helped Toyota catch up with the competition. Tesla had no experience with the formidable supply chain and production issues involved in building high-quality cars on a large scale. This is one of Toyota's great strengths.
Unfortunately, there seemed to be bad blood between Toyota and Tesla management. I suspect this may have prevented consideration of such a partnership.
I haven't found many details outside of wikipedia, not sure the nature of the partnership. If it was about Toyota getting tax credits, Tesla testing an EV drivetrain without having to engineer an entire vehicle platform, or something else.
Coincidence? No, I don’t think so. People know our fossil fuel obsession has cost us dearly.
Plus EVs have much better maintenance profiles other than just saving money in gas.
Many homes use gas-powered heating and hot water because it used to be cheaper. It's inefficient for power plants to burn gas, turn it into electricity + waste heat vs. homes just turning the gas directly into heat. That likely won't be the case for long since renewable electricity sources should drive down the cost of electricity.
The energy harvested from a wind turbine (or solar panel) is quite small compared to the energy required to make that generator, when compared to the equivalent figures for a fossil fuel plant. I just don't buy the idea that renewables are cheaper sources - just looking at the energy returned on energy invested, power produced will be more expensive. That's ok, because us humans should learn how to use drastically less energy in our daily lives, but it doesn't help to pretend that it will make energy cheaper.
USGS predicts we have 13.5 million tons of lithium reserves which would support production of 100 million EVs per year for over 17 years. And that's just on the earth. Asteroid mining, recycling, or alternate battery tech could easily extend that timeline. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-there-enough...
Also take a look at recent solar costs vs. fossil fuels. They've already crossed with fossil fuels at 5-17 cents and solar at 3-6 cents per kwh. We should of course not waste energy, but requiring humanity to use less energy is not the answer, it's never happened in human history and we do not need it to happen.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pd...
The article you linked also doesn't do your point any favours - some quotes:
>"Can lithium batteries scale up? According to this quick and purely speculative math, the short answer is, with current reserves, not just no, but hell no."
>"Even this little sketch of the issue highlights the obvious conclusion: we need to do our best to get away from single passenger cars -- even EVs -- and rely more on smart city design, walking, biking, carpooling, trains, shuttles, etc."
As for the relative prices of electricity sources - I'll just say it again, the energy returned on energy invested for renewable sources mean that an all-renewable grid would have a higher cost per unit of electricity. The only reason it's cheap now is because most of the manufacturing is done by countries that are happy to burn oil, coal, and whatever else they can find, to do so.
Even if lithium doesn't scale, we will find alternatives for electrical energy storage and will become increasingly efficient at renewable manufacturing.
The US is a net oil exporter. Also, take a look at where cobalt and other necessary rare earths come from.
An EV takes significantly more energy to manufacture than an ICE car. Including this energy cost, over its lifetime, the efficiency gains are marginal.
Tesla made the electric car desirable to the masses. That is no small feat. Toyota could have done it years or even decades ago, but they didn't. Other traditional car makers could have done it, but chose not to.
Now they're all on a race to compete against Tesla.
But ultimately, the goal shouldn't be to have everybody drive an electric car instead of an ICE car. It should be about having less cars on the road, period. It should be about consuming less resources, wasting less resources, period.
That being said, given Toyota's tendency to shy away from innovation lately I can see why he's getting flak. He should be, and not just because of Tesla.
I'm a diehard Toyota fanboy, because I believe in things being built to last. It's good for the environment, and good for consumers. Nothing frustrates me more cars designed to last only as long as the warranty or lease term.
I had a BMW 3 series that I loved driving which broke down far more than a non-performance variant had any right to, so the Lexus equivalent I bought afterwards was a welcome change that I've loved driving ever since.
But Toyota has hidden behind their "reliability" moniker for so long, their offerings aren't really competitive in any segments anymore.
For pickup trucks, both the Tundra and Tacoma have weak inefficient engines, with the Tacoma having a dog of a transmission. For luxury sedans, Lexus has no performance variants anymore, and their mid-performance variants have fallen woefully behind the competition (the 2021 IS350 has gained 5hp since it's debut in 2006).
My wife wants an EV so her next car is looking to be a BMW i3 (despite how much I swore I'd never buy another), and I want a reliable performance car so it seems like my next car will be a used Porsche (with maybe a mid-step at an IS-F, a car Lexus hasn't produced since 2014).
They haven't just missed the boat on EVs, their ICEs are falling terribly behind as well, what are they doing over there? Reliability doesn't matter if you're not producing anything people want.
I had really hoped that Toyota would come up with an electric only vehicle, but they’ve rolled out their hybrid drive train across their entire fleet now.
They have a fuel cell vehicle which runs on hydrogen only, but there’s a small handful of stations in the UK which means it’s pointless.
I now have an electric car in order which isn’t a Toyota and I don’t think I’m going back.
I was wondering about the ID3 because the batteries are built into the floor and seem to only have a 100k miles lifetime, which is nothing for a VW and will destroy the secondhand market in the name of "progress" and saving the environment (but with non recyclable battery tech to do so).
Hyundai Kona Electric is another.
If you are after something really small - Renault Zoe, Kia Niro and VW Up are small, but not super cheap yet.
if you don't have the income or the desire to take advantage of the tax subsidies yourself, you can still get them through very generous leasing programs that most manufacturers are offering for electric vehicles.
A new EV Kona is $37k, not exactly economical to me, but they’re getting there. I’m excited for the future of EV. Thanks for this.
While they'll survive at a minimum due to JDM dominance, and it may be plausible to ignore Tesla due to low volume numbers, GM and Volkswagen are credibly sized companies with substantial lead times over Toyota.
They've already blown their solid-state prediction for the Tokyo Olympics, Hydrogen is (at minimum) ten years from any significant consumer usage, and no EV vehicles of any technical significance aside from slapdash compliance vehicles.
Seems like head-in-the-sand behavior.
Around here, a Tesla Model 3 costs 50,000, Hyundai Kona 45,000 and VW id3 40,000.
Anyone reading this should understand what is happening.
One disruptive company is growing in leaps and bounds (50% up Y/Y Q/Q for Tesla) using intrinsically cheaper and better technology, and taking a much wider view of the market by including power generation supply and storage.
The other switched to hybrid powered vehicles fast but stopped there, and thereupon lost value. Toyota sold 10 million cars in CY2019 and forecasts a COVID affected 7.5m for the year ended March 21. Sadly they don't even make electric utes (light trucks) for use in underground mines, let alone EVs for taxis and so on.
Next problem: Why Toyota won't build Li-On terafactory? Possibly they bet solid state battery.
If Tesla achieves the promise of battery investor day (which really is the average year-on-year double-digit cost improvement in batteries that has been going on in the industry), and does the same with its unibody molding and other components in a vertically integrated market, Tesla will do really well.
Disclaimer: don't know actual numbers for Tesla and not in a position to look them up right this second.
https://insideevs.com/news/438345/tesla-428-million-carbon-c...