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Comment by beaner | Hacker News Reader

It is certainly something to recognize, that minorities generally held up that pattern. But the point I'm trying to make is about how peoples' minds changed after 4 years of experiencing an actual Trump presidency. Minorities moved towards him, and only white men moved away. That seems quite notable to me.

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I think it's less notable than the media is making it out to be. In 2016, Trump was an unknown quantity to minorities. It was presumed that as a conservative xenophobe with racially charged rhetoric he was a monstrous individual, and people voted on that mere presumption. In 2020 the majority people of color still believed that he was unsuitable, and hence voted accordingly. But people's lives are not monolithic. Some minorities, regardless of group, prospered on a personal level over the past 4 years. They did better, their families did better, they were not dissatisfied with their lives under Trump. For some of those people, that personal reality took priority over what some call "tribal" politics. So they voted for more of the same.

It's for basically that reason that incumbent politicians are usually favored to win. As long as people's lives go generally okay, they want to stick with the devil they know.

> I think it's less notable than the media is making it out to be.

Really? From my perspective, the media has not noted it at all. I had to notice it in a Twitter stream before it disappeared down my feed forever, to know these statistics. It seems more notable than zero, and therefore to me more notable than the media is making it out to be.

I don't disagree with the rest of your comment. Peoples' lives were determined to be better under Trump, so they voted to keep it. Privileged people with the benefit of discounting quality of life bumps that were significant to others but insignificant to themselves, were more likely to vote based on appearances.

The massive turnout efforts likely had something to do with this.

For instance if black men who support Republicans very grudgingly (enough not to vote say) are swept up in a broader wash of getting all black men to vote more, you’d see that pattern.

Another reading of the data is that these were votes against Biden/Harris or protest votes against the Democratic party for their lack of more aggressive action on racial justice.

Or it’s all of these things. One of the thing about every 4 year elections is it’s hard to interpret trend data. Especially not 5 days later.

> For instance if black men who support Republicans very grudgingly (enough not to vote say) are swept up in a broader wash of getting all black men to vote more, you’d see that pattern

Why? There is no reason for this assertion. There are equally likely begrudging black democrats, and higher turnout doesn't necessarily lean towards a side. You'd expect higher numbers in equal proportions on both sides, all else being equal.

> Another reading of the data is that these were votes against Biden/Harris or protest votes against the Democratic party for their lack of more aggressive action on racial justice

Yes. Away from Biden is functionally equivalent to towards Trump if that's how the votes were placed. That's saying what I'm saying, in part

It is probably to mistake to lump together different minority groups as I imagine the issues that move them are very diverse.

I am not sure that the increases say much about Trump's actual policies outside of his stance on shutdowns and Covid which has had a tremendous negative effect on the Economy.

I think a certain segment of the population probably saw Biden as too much of an insider who will deliver more of the same.

I am not lumping them together at all. The statistic is more specifically interesting about white men than about other demographics. That the other groups moved in unison speaks to a deeper, more fundamental and more universally-applicable quality of life analysis for all Americans under Trump. The situation shows that things like low unemployment have broad appeal, and can overcome identity politics. Strangely, however, that overcoming is more true for the minorities themselves than for the supposed systemic promulgators of oppression!

The whites are having identity shouting matches with each other while the minorities they supposedly are trying to be considerate of, move in the opposite direction.

That is fascinating. Could you point me towards some of his policies that benefit minorities? Genuinely interested. I'm also in agreement with you that most people who vote for Trump do so in spite of his character, not because of it.

A good amount of people of color remember that Joe Biden was behind the 1995 three-strikes bill that heavily penalized nuisance crime, that he was behind the 2005 bankruptcy bill that made it impossible to have student loans written off in bankruptcy, and he was vice president in 2008 when Obama let the banks off with taps on the wrist after wrecking the economy. Oh, yes, the War On Drugs, too. Lots of people with a prison sentence over some marijuana.

It's not that Trump had a track record of doing things that benefitted non-white people, it's that Biden has a sustained track record of actually causing serious harm and people have not forgotten.

This makes more sense to me than beaner's argument that minorities think they will directly benefit from Trump's policies. Also bear in mind that Trump previously fought against a Clinton, and the Clintons are supposed to be specifically popular among some ethnic minorities.

You can start with these two:

- First Step Act [0]

- Platinum Plan for Black America [1]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Step_Act

[1] https://cdn.donaldjtrump.com/public-files/press_assets/presi...

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