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Comment by auganov | Hacker News Reader

FTX [0] has President Trump's chances at remaining President in February 2021 at a little over 10%. Numerous legal pathways remain for President Trump to win.

https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB

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That is patently false. There are no allegations at any level that would legally alter the election results.

I'm not sure where you get your confidence from. Just yesterday the Supreme Courter ordered ballots received after election day to be counted separately in Pennsylvania. This will at least give us an idea if the legal proceedings can "legally alter the election results", because if that number is high enough to swing the state there's going to be a lot of litigation.

There's a long way to go until Jan 20th folks. Buckle up.

https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/524900-supreme-...

Pennsylvania was already segregating the ballots, the order just ensures it. They were NOT a part of the count yet.

Source?

Those votes were segregated and Trump lost soundly without them. I’m not even sure they’ve been counted yet in PA but reports were that there were only about 500 late ballots.

Although there are possible scenarios where enough ballots would be disqualified, there are scenarios beyond that. Legislatures don't necessarily have to certify the result. Electoral Count Act and Bush v. Gore seem to suggest that state legislatures can in fact do as they please despite state law suggesting otherwise. And all of the heavily disputed states have Republican legislatures.

Given an electoral dispute it could be decided by house delegations which gives Republicans an edge.

What happens if Biden dies before the electoral vote? Do the electors vote for the vice president candidate? Does she assume office as president if Biden dies after the electoral vote?

Interesting question, this seems to cover both parts https://qz.com/1929017/what-happens-if-biden-dies-before-ina...

Posting this, not to be confrontational but to share info.

https://twitter.com/FareedZakaria/status/1326255584069513220

This is a piece on GPS ( a CNN show ) where Fareed Zakaria lays out a potential election endgame, predicated on legal strategy with "allegations" as a key component, that seems to line up with exactly what is happening now. that could be very effective at altering election results.

Note that the video was recorded before the election and shows a potential strategy that uses legal challenges to voting results at various levels as a navigation tool aimed at ending with a situation where congress/states elect the president on a one-vote per state basis.

These are 11c contracts that pay $1 in Feb if he's president and $0 otherwise. It's basically people betting on what is a very unlikely scenario now.

Calling this a 10% chance he continues to be president in Feb21 is disingenuous at best.

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