Right. The problem is the polling.
But really. If the polls are so unreliable then at some point people like FiveThirtyEight or the Economist need to understand that and stop incorporating them into models (which may mean not attempting to forecast at all). Just pointing the finger of blame around only gets you so far.
My opinion: I think deep down these people feel they are rationally wrong for voting in a president that promised to, and now is actually attacking USA's democracy and freedom which used to be touted as America's strong point. They know they're acting on instinct, and people tend to hide their instincts in public.
> My opinion: I think deep down these people feel they are rationally wrong for voting in a president that promised to, and now is actually attacking USA's democracy and freedom which used to be touted as America's strong point.
I think you underestimate peoples distrust of mainstream politicians.
Many find Trumps suggestions abhorrent, but still support investigations. Think if this happened to "your" candidate:
- There's no doubt that Twitter and Facebook has been uncritically spreading false rumors about Trump only to turn right around and supress the H.Biden leaks, even after it was clear at least some of the juicy mails was cryptographically verified. If Twitter had been posting a warning everytime someone pretended the "fine folks on both sides" hoax then they would have been in a better position now. Same if they had come up with the rule against hacked materials when Trumps tax papers supposedly leaked.
- Ballot collections
- Sweeping changes to election laws
etc etc.
I dislike Trump, but it is hard to not get some sympathy for someone who has managed to get a number of really fantastic peace deals, have finally started to improve lives of people in the midwest - without hurting the coasts - and yet is hounded by almost every mainstream media outlet.
Do you have a link that refers to this cryptographic verification? Last time I saw this talked about on HN, the summary was that there really wasn't even an ounce of evidence, and that the people who supposedly had it were not sharing it for no good reason, so I'd be interested if there has actually been a proper verification of this.
> have finally started to improve lives of people in the midwest - without hurting the coasts
What do you mean, and what's the source for this? Again I'm not that informed about this topic, so I'm genuinely curious about a source. That's also the problems when half his tweets make the headlines: that skews the information towards what he says rather than what he does, and given the votes of this election I tend to think that (at least the perception of) the latter is better than the former.
I don't know what GP is talking about here, but what I remember is at least one person mentioned in the emails confirmed to the FBI that they're real.
And yes, social and mainstream media has inflamed everything by misrepresenting Trump's side.
But let's not remove his guilt: he has said (in a speech that SHOULD be censored by both mainstream AND social media) that he won this election, and won't accept its results. This is ACTUALLY fascism (a word that's thrown around wrongly many times): for years the people's voice has been heard, and now we have a leader (and many supporters) that don't support a democratic system anymore. That's fine, democracy isn't the only available system, but it's a hallmark of the USA.
Totally agree, so let me clarify my position here.
I'm not defending the idiotic things Trump and certain Trump supporters say.
I didn't want Trump either and I think I started soon after last election (on another account) to say that I was afraid we would get more of this if the rest of the politicians didn't wake up for how massively unpopular they are in certain circles.
Yet here we are.
Yes, a lot of people love Trump. But very many hold their noses and vote for him despite thinking of him as a constant embarrassment.
Why?
My theories:
- BLM has been campaigning relentlessly for Trump - despite their intentions. Just think straight through this example: Your local shop get looted or someone you know loses their job or their house because of this. Will this increase the chance that you vote for the party who doesn't condemn these guys? Or the other party?
- Mainstream media, who doesn't care at all about you, even ridicule you as rednecks, will you vote for or against the candidate that they try to push.
- Will you want to support the party who has still not apologized for their "basket of deplorables" comment?
- They band up with none other than Lady Gaga, produces a video perfect for angering these people at release it a day or so before election day!
- Even a huge number of black people went to Trump this year. Guess why? No respect for them either!
So no, I don't like Trump. I don't defend his more idiotic ideas.
But I do think Democrats and many HNers have a lot to learn before they understand why Trump is so popular despite his truckload of flaws.
And no, it is not that everyone who voted for Trump is dumb racists.
That has been addressed before, and it had seemed unlikely—there are races where more "normal" Republicans on the ballot (for house or senate races) were polling worse than Trump. So it might be that they're ashamed to vote for Trump, but why would they be ashamed—let alone even more ashamed—to vote for a normal Republican?