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This leaves out the states that originally tipped the election to trump last time due to polling error of 4-7pts. Really its big polling errors in these states. The rest of the map doesn't look as bad. Popular vote also most likely off by estimated 4pts when all ballots counted, which isn't terrible.

Diff on final 538 -> current results

Wisc: ~8pt diff

Michigan: 4-6pt diff

PA: still counting but most likely 2-5pts off

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Not sure how you're counting, but by my calculations

Wisconsin: 53.7/45.4 -> 49.6/48.9 (3.8 diff)

Michigan: 53.5/45.5 -> 50.5/48 (2.7 diff)

PA: 52.0/47.3 -> 48.1/50.7 (3.7 diff), though will shift quite a lot as you mention

So even then it's still closer to 3-4 point, not 4-8 as you mention.

I think we all need to be mindful of forming conclusions too soon based on incomplete data. It’s easy to get fixated on our first impressions even as new data comes in.

I think GP is measuring the difference in the total margin while you are measuring the difference in each candidates percentage.

I.e. in Wisconsin, the forecasted margin was 8.3 points and looks to be closer to 0.7 points which is a difference of ~8 points as GP said.

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