Masks could save 130k American lives from COVID19 by March | Hacker News Reader

Masks could save 130k American lives from COVID19 by March

directorsblog.nih.gov

36 pointsrkolberg67 comments

I can't buy it, European citizens almost all have to wear masks and we can clearly see that this measure alone doesn't seem to have an impact on the epidemic as the speed of the increase of cases is more or less the same that what we had in march. And nobody was wearing masks at that time.

That is a good point which is worth discussing. From an opposite point of view Czech Republic mandated masks early on which seemed to work. Now they are in a bad state which is being blamed on relaxing the restrictions they had in place.

This is interesting.

Hypothesis: Wearing a mask is a physical reminder that we're in a pandemic, which helps folks remember to do other things which reduce their risk (avoid touching things unnecessarily, wash hands more often, staying at home unless necessary, etc)

There was a Japanese study about this awhile back and that was the general conclusion; that the signaling is important regardless of any "real" effect. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3536629/

HackerNews continually gets triggered by my posts: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24984527

This post links to an article showing masks don't work (N95 masks that are worn properly do work, though).

"The Most Masked European Countries Have the Biggest Coronavirus Surges"

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/11/most-masked-europea...

either you are commenting on the not-so-great title of this article, or you didn't read it.

the last paragraph clearly states:

> To do so, each of us needs to follow these three W’s: Wear a mask. Watch your distance (stay 6 feet apart). Wash your hands often.

Masks are like violence, when they don't work, use more!

That shows the masks are working.

Since the number of infected people have increased, the rate of infection should also increase. If it remains same, then there is an actual reduction

The epidemiological curve is actually linear (constant derivative) in the middle. It's basically an S-curve in our parlance.

Aren’t everyone living in dense areas require to wear masks already anyway?

Not really. For example, Florida has no state-wide mandate and the individual city mandates there are not really enforceable [1].

[1] https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/orders/2020/EO_20-2...

Not an American but if it all goes by what I see in the news, no you are not.

The paper cites this website: https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=mask-use&tab=tren..., which reports 60% (self-reported) of people consistently wear masks. "Required" isn't the same as followed. Furthermore, I think this paper is modeling COVID19 deaths everywhere, not just in dense areas.

Every time I leave the bay area to go somewhere hiking, the towns I pass through are full of both (a) Trump flags and (b) people not wearing masks. Two weeks ago, employees at local bakeries near Mt. Shasta weren't wearing masks in the kitchen. Even the employees at Taco Bell Drive Thru near Mt. Shasta weren't wearing masks (they had their masks off their nose). Complained via Taco Bell website and got no response. That's America in a nutshell.

For most people, regular consumption of Taco Bell is probably a worse health risk than COVID-19. Obesity and hypertension are known killers on their own, and also increase the risk of a bad COVID-19 outcome.

But their consumption of Taco Bell is their own individual problem - their obesity and hypertension can't harm me or others. COVID-19 is different.

If you're being confined to your house over fears of indirectly killing the guy who can't put down the bag of Doritos...well yes.

COVID-19 lockdowns are predicated on the vulnerable which includes the obese and chronically ill.

I'm not confined to my house, I'm just taking effortless precautions like wearing a mask. I'm doing this more for my elderly grandparents, and people like them, not some strawman who eats too many Doritos.

> not some strawman who eats too many Doritos

Hold on a second, 42.4% obesity in the US must play into the danger of COVID to the US population. That's a very weird dismissal that doesn't really make sense.

It does harm you and others. By continually weakening their immune system, they are more prone to viruses which they spread to others.

Although I agree with you about the health risk of regular consumption of fast food, I'm not a regular consumer of Taco Bell, and occasional consumption of fast food is not a significant health risk to most people. I only hoped that when I passed through the area that a nationwide chain would have slightly better COVID sanitation standards than the local establishments I passed by at first. It turned out not to be the case.

Have you thought that they have better grasp on the risks involved than you especially if their communities are not devastated by the virus?

Some uncertainty in one's beliefs can be beneficial sometimes.

Or they've been influenced by a broad array of politicians and media figures into believing that COVID is essentially over and there was nothing to worry about in the first place.

Masks seem to me to be a polite way of saying to front-facing retail employees and government workers that I realize your exposure is much greater than mine, I appreciate the risk you are taking, and I will do this small/large gesture to keep you safe. Might help me too, who knows...

They'd have to wear the things over Thanksgiving Dinner. Good luck seeing that happen - everyone knows you catch COVID only when out in public, but never over dinner with your friends.

If you are going to wear a mask get a p100 [0]. Removes 99.97% of all particles that are 0.3 microns in diameter or larger. The lame part is covid is: 0.06 microns to .14 microns [1]. In theory though covid will be attached to a larger particle.

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/disp_part...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/11/fac...

Be aware many of those masks in the CDC list have one-way valves that cause exhalations to be unfiltered.

If the wearer is infectious, it doesn't protect people they encounter.

You can close those valves with a simple “hack”. The N95 woodworker mask I have has a plastic guard over the valve. Cut the guard and use an adhesive (I use Sugru) to close the valve. Ugly but effective, and visibly shows the valve has been shut...

The masks are to protect people from you, not the other way around. Many N9x masks have valves which partially defeat the purpose of mask wearing.

I think it's more accurate to say that it will postpone the death of 130k americans by a few months.

And then what happens in March?

I had faith in my fellow americans to wear a mask, but after filling in a week for our front desk salesperson I'm increasingly confounded by the lack of simple human compassion a lot of people seem to exhibit. customers who dont wear masks and are told to leave almost always have a long-winded presidential speach ready for anyone in earshot...rambling discourse about freedom, communism, china, asthma, you name it...anything they can think of so as to avoid accountability for their poor decision.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com