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Comment by nickthemagicman | Hacker News Reader

Or just lucky?

We know the virus is asymptomatic yet contagious in people for weeks.

All it takes is for one low paid person at a checkpoint to have a bad day or be bribed and let an infected person through and you have a pandemic again.

Additionally the tests aren't 100% accurate so even with perfect testing of borders someone could slip by given a large enough sample size.

I think those countries have either:

1. Reached herd immunity already due to wide spread infections or pre-existing cross immunity(possibly regional exposure to a related corona virus)

2. Living on borrowed time

Something doesn't add up.

I think you all may be patting yourselves on the back too soon.

Or the population actually has herd immunity already due to having been exposed to similar viruses.

That would explain why a lot of Asian countries in China's orbit are reaching minimal infections sooner. They may have had Corona or something similar for years.

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You’ve got some heavily inaccurate assumptions about how the virus spreads. Most infected people spread to nobody, even without restrictions. The bulk of spread happens in clusters in poorly ventilated indoor environments. The household attack rate is something like 17%. That’s people living in the same house. 83% of people don’t get it!

To have a sustained outbreak breach quarantine, you’d need:

1. An infected person to arrive (probably less than 2% of arrivals are infected)

2. This infected person must breach isolation protocol. (Most people are honest or fear or penalties)

3. They must be infectious when they breach protocol (you are only very infectious for five days or so)

4. They must go to a place apt to superspreading (not everyone breaching isolation will go to a bar or a party)

5. The newly infected must all remain asymptomatic and not seek testing

6. Once community spread is detected, the government must delay taking action, fail to contact trace, and avoid implementing new measures

This is obviously possible. Outbreaks have happened in Australia, Vietnam, New Zealand, New Brunswick. But it is much, much less likely than you suggest, which is why you’re being downvoted: you’re completely failing to consider the system dynamics.

And in each case step 6 has put things back on track pretty quick. Australia is the exception, but there the local government was slow to respond and so they needed a big, long lockdown. Other areas responded quickly and so the necessary lockdown has been short.

I’m in the Atlantic bubble. Frankly it leaks like a sieve and yet it’s still been enough to keep out infections for now.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overloo...

I think a lot of what you said doesn't take into account how actual reality works.

I think the system dynamics you're using may be purely academic.

I was saying one person as an example...but America has millions of undocumented people that snuck across the border here. Do you honestly think other countries don't?

Borders are very fluid.

Humans are social creatures by nature. They're going to come into infectious proximity of hundreds if not thousands of people a week at grocery stores, restaraunts, gas stations, bars, salons, etc.

Also theres's science showing corona virus stays on surfaces for days which means if they cough on a surface like a doorknob that can spread to people they weren't in contact with.

Contact tracing is useless.

Like I said.. once again.. youre just lucky and are patting yourself on the back too soon... or your region has reached some form of herd immunity.

There's no testing at borders in the countries I'm aware of that have eliminated COVID-19. How it works is that very few people are allowed in at all, and every single person who _is_ allowed in is force-quarantined for two weeks in facilities specifically built/converted for secure quarantine. Outbreaks that _have_ happened tend to start from guards in quarantine facilities, not from someone slipping by border security (which is hard to mess up if you let in single-digit numbers of people per day).

Something like 3% of the population in America is illegally immigrants, that's millions of people.

And we have a huge border control service.

Are you arguing that it's possible to close the borders in the United States? Like that is an actual option?

Do you think other countries don't have illegal immigration as well?

Do you think those illegal immigrants are going to voluntarily present themselves to get tested?

Any excuse to wave away the possibility that competent government and a society that is willing to take a temporary hit for a bigger goal is possible right?

First of all, throughout all of recorded history, when has government been competent in caring for it's subjects needs?

When it had its foot on the neck of the peasants for a thousand years during Egyptian times or a thousand years during medieval times?

The only thing that ended massive repression by the government during the middle ages, was the black plague which killed indiscriminately and allowed redistribution of the wealth and subsequently the enlightenment.

What about when gov't started started holocausts, genocides, crusades?

When it invaded Vietnam and many of the other frivolous wars the human race has been in?

This is not hand wavy this is history.

SECOND OF ALL, this is not a temporary hit this is permanently hurting hundreds of millions of peoples lives increasing real poverty around the world destroying small businesses and people's livelihoods.

This is rewriting society and culture.

This is increasing homelessness, suicide, drug addiction and overdoses and more.

If you think this is a temporary hit you and the rest of the people like you are truly in your own bubble.

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