Isn't that a temporary win?
Once a person enters the country with the virus its back on.
Are we pattong our selves on the back too soon for these kinds of wins?
The modern news cycle is so short sighted that the media makes money off this kind of thing without reporting the full picture.
The virus isn’t magic. If you have a testing and tracing system in place and act quickly with temporary restrictions you can squash any outbreaks that do make it through.
And meanwhile life in those areas is basically normal. I’m in one now. Functionally we’re much more free than people in places with heavy lockdowns and fear.
We know the virus is asymptomatic yet contagious in people for weeks.
All it takes is for one low paid person at a checkpoint to have a bad day or be bribed and let an infected person through and you have a pandemic again.
Additionally the tests aren't 100% accurate so even with perfect testing of borders someone could slip by given a large enough sample size.
I think those countries have either:
1. Reached herd immunity already due to wide spread infections or pre-existing cross immunity(possibly regional exposure to a related corona virus)
2. Living on borrowed time
Something doesn't add up.
I think you all may be patting yourselves on the back too soon.
Or the population actually has herd immunity already due to having been exposed to similar viruses.
That would explain why a lot of Asian countries in China's orbit are reaching minimal infections sooner. They may have had Corona or something similar for years.
When it had its foot on the neck of the peasants for a thousand years during Egyptian times or a thousand years during medieval times?
The only thing that ended massive repression by the government during the middle ages, was the black plague which killed indiscriminately and allowed redistribution of the wealth and subsequently the enlightenment.
What about when gov't started started holocausts, genocides, crusades?
When it invaded Vietnam and many of the other frivolous wars the human race has been in?
This is not hand wavy this is history.
SECOND OF ALL, this is not a temporary hit this is permanently hurting hundreds of millions of peoples lives increasing real poverty around the world destroying small businesses and people's livelihoods.
This is rewriting society and culture.
This is increasing homelessness, suicide, drug addiction and overdoses and more.
If you think this is a temporary hit you and the rest of the people like you are truly in your own bubble.
And we have a huge border control service.
Are you arguing that it's possible to close the borders in the United States? Like that is an actual option?
Do you think other countries don't have illegal immigration as well?
Do you think those illegal immigrants are going to voluntarily present themselves to get tested?
To have a sustained outbreak breach quarantine, you’d need:
1. An infected person to arrive (probably less than 2% of arrivals are infected)
2. This infected person must breach isolation protocol. (Most people are honest or fear or penalties)
3. They must be infectious when they breach protocol (you are only very infectious for five days or so)
4. They must go to a place apt to superspreading (not everyone breaching isolation will go to a bar or a party)
5. The newly infected must all remain asymptomatic and not seek testing
6. Once community spread is detected, the government must delay taking action, fail to contact trace, and avoid implementing new measures
This is obviously possible. Outbreaks have happened in Australia, Vietnam, New Zealand, New Brunswick. But it is much, much less likely than you suggest, which is why you’re being downvoted: you’re completely failing to consider the system dynamics.
And in each case step 6 has put things back on track pretty quick. Australia is the exception, but there the local government was slow to respond and so they needed a big, long lockdown. Other areas responded quickly and so the necessary lockdown has been short.
I’m in the Atlantic bubble. Frankly it leaks like a sieve and yet it’s still been enough to keep out infections for now.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overloo...
I think the system dynamics you're using may be purely academic.
I was saying one person as an example...but America has millions of undocumented people that snuck across the border here. Do you honestly think other countries don't?
Borders are very fluid.
Humans are social creatures by nature. They're going to come into infectious proximity of hundreds if not thousands of people a week at grocery stores, restaraunts, gas stations, bars, salons, etc.
Also theres's science showing corona virus stays on surfaces for days which means if they cough on a surface like a doorknob that can spread to people they weren't in contact with.
Contact tracing is useless.
Like I said.. once again.. youre just lucky and are patting yourself on the back too soon... or your region has reached some form of herd immunity.
Afaict that has been the plan all along in the US as well (in terms of what scientists and infectious disease experts were saying), but most states and the administration gave up on that months ago, e.g. the national "testing czar" declaring the required testing capacity impossible.
By the time an out break is identified hundreds or thousands of people have possibly been infected.
If every time you get a symptomatic case that tests positive, you isolate contacts and secondary contacts, you will have isolated enough of the asymptomatic cases and false negative tests to get R < 1 and halt the spread of the virus.
Its odd that you believe that only contacts and secondary contacts are susceptible.
With an natural r naught of three and the and the fact that it stays on surfaces for days...it's just a matter of time until another outbreak happens.
The proof is in the pudding: we are seeing this strategy work.
Those grocery store shoppers might be susceptible, but it turns out that not enough of them get infected for this strategy to fail if it is stuck to for long enough.
I'm posting this from Victoria, where we've had zero new COVID cases for three days now. I'm telling you, it works.
Has any virus ever just gone away.....
Once society lets down it's guard, if your country hasn't reached herd immunity when the virus returns you're back to lockdown. Perpetual corona whack a mole.
There's no realistic way out of this other than herd immunity through a vaccine or natural means.
Non vaccine human control of this virus is impossible long term.
It's a virus. It has no reservoir but currently infected people. In fact, if we could all stay isolate for 2 weeks it would be gone from the earth. Of course that's impossible but combination strategies can (have) worked.
Ebola's reservoir has yet to have been discovered but it's still there.
Obviously the bigger risk to Australia et al is reintroduction from other countries. So Australia's borders will continue to require 14 days of quarantine until there is a good enough vaccine. However, New Zealand has now seen three re-introductions, and they have managed to suppress them just fine so far. So if this is what delaying the inevitable looks like, I'll take it too. Seems like it can be delayed an awfully long time.
Maintaining quarantine at borders is an option, if a country decides they want to do it. Australia decided it wanted to. I see no reason why this can't be sustained indefinitely, it's merely a matter of how long Australia is willing to have a border quarantine system in place (which comes with all kinds of costs due to reduced international travel).
There's no epidemiological reason the virus can't be suppressed and kept out of a given region. The only remaining question is how soon we expect a vaccine such that this isolation is worth it in the long run. If a vaccine never comes then it is not a viable strategy, otherwise, it does seem like a good call.
Just want to remind you that I'm writing this from Australia where there is practically no virus in the community and are freedoms are increasing rather than decreasing. I don't expect there'll be widespread COVID in Australia ever again, as we've gotten quite good at suppressing small outbreaks now.
These are very optimistic beliefs of yours and time will tell.
You have to keep in mind that even if the virus is able to be contained by human intervention..there is a cost of perpetual repressive policies: closed borders, mask wearing, burden on small businesses, social distancing, etc.
Herd immunity via vaccine or natural acquisition is the only way we'll ever fully go back to normal.
And I do wish you all the best over there, and hope that all of this is as manageable as it appears.
Either way if a vaccine reappears were mostly back to normal.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrat...
Assuming a vaccine comes out, Australia can make US visitors get vaccinated before visiting.