It's pretty lame to paste an image of the NY Time's 82% chance of Clinton winning the election in an article that calls out Nate by name. Nate gave Clinton like a 70% chance.

Can model building predict human behavior? It's fuzzier than the hard sciences, but not that much fuzzier. And if you do believe it's impossible to model human behavior, you have to throw out vast swaths of knowledge and areas of study: there goes sociology, anthropology, economics, psychology, epidemiology...