> But if your takeaway from that is that scientists are overconfident and wrong

my takeaway is that every years hundred models are given birth, every year later the model fitting the data best survive, and two year later when that last model prediction fail, a new model from the previous that that predicted the change better replaces it, in a never ending cycle of bullshit.

the models go both way: without a predictive model that can hold water, how do you know which parameter to tune to resolve the climate crisis?