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I tried to upgrade a substantial codebase from vue 2 to 3 and hit a brick wall with Vuex early on.

Most of the code people have written in Vue 2 is compatible with Vue 3.

All of the code written with React 15 is compatible with React 16. And React 17. And React 18. And so on probably.

Actually React 18 is likely to have breaking changes due to Suspense. Specifically the deprecated methods that are currently prefixed with UNSAFE_ will likely be removed.

But not all of your packages!

This is simply not true. React 15 is not compatible with React 16 and it can even take substantial effort to upgrade if you used componentWillReceiveProps (though which in hindsight could be avoided in the first place)

I did that migration on a very large react project (hundreds of thousands of lines). As I recall, after dealing with warnings for the later 15.x releases, the upgrade was seamless. They're also good about creating codemods to make the transition easier -- something somewhat rare in the world of software libraries.

My opinion comes strictly as an indy dev with very limited time and resources. So, any breaking change is frustrating.