You don't appreciate the power of "crashes" or multi year "slow bleeds". Ultimately housing prices always recovered to their inflation adjusted average, Robert Shiller wrote a lot on this topic. Both from being undervalued and from being overvalued. The only thing that's always unclear is the path.
Note that this implies two exists from the situation, or a combination: CPI will go much higher or nominal housing prices will go much lower. 1970s saw the first variant, 1930s and late 2000s saw the second variant.
Also, if you want to see true insanity compare Chinese big city apartment prices to salaries and CNY interest rates. That is true insanity. No other country comes even close to what's going on there (maybe 1980s Japan? I suppose it's close). It has a lot to do with chinese people having strong conviction in government's support of the market, kinda like the US equity market is now widely believed to be completely supported by whatever means will necessary. Time will tell how much such self-fulfilling illusions last.
There's a macroeconomic story for that: with roughly 80 million Millenials (in the U.S; ~3B worldwide) reaching homebuying age and competing for a housing stock that's not growing nearly as fast, the ability to buy a house moves up the income ladder, so that sellers can capture money from an increasingly wealthier homebuying population. Meanwhile, those ~3B worldwide Millenials are entering working age, driving the price of labor (and hence of anything built with labor, including food and manufactured goods) down. CPI of goods & non-professional services goes down, price of assets goes up.
This demographic trend reverses itself in about 10-15 years as the comparatively tiny Gen-Z reaches homebuying age, but in the meantime there'll be an even bigger pop as late Millenials (1990-1998) reach homebuying age and there are nowhere near enough homes for them all. I'd also expect inflation to start showing up in the CPI as Gen-Z starts to make up the new workforce entrants, boomers start dying off, and hence the labor force shrinks and wages go up.
It's worth pointing out that in most developed countries (but not the US), there are far fewer millenials than there are boomers. Also, most residential real estate in developed countries is owned by boomers, and the oldest boomers (right now, this year, in 2020) are entering their final years (age 75). I think even within 5 years most mid-tier cities in the developed world that aren't hopelessly supply-constrained will see huge drops in residential home prices.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4866586/
Barring things like a mass COVID die-off (certainly possible), I still think it'll be 10-15 years before we see a large transfer of homes away from boomers.
> Once adjusted for inflation you can see the real scope of the Toronto housing bubble of 1980s. Only in 2010, or 21 years later, real average housing prices reached the peak of 1989.
* http://www.torontocondobubble.com/2013/02/toronto-housing-bu...
* https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/it-took-22-years-for...
It took ~7 years for prices to bottom out before starting to rise again.
Lately condo prices have been softening (supposedly due to Airbnbs folks offloading), but (semi-)detached houses are still going up. Rents have also been dropping due to Airbnbs giving up on 'short-term rentals' (read: mini-hotels) and switching to long-term rentals.
For ever distressed Canadian sale, there will be 100's of billions of foreign $$$ waiting to snatch it up.
It is truly remarkable what a young Canadian faces today when it comes to enjoying what previous generations took for granted. A good job or career, a house or property, etc. It just isn't going to happen for the majority of them.
There seems to be a feeling that not enough is being done about money laundering, and that's not helping the real estate situation:
* https://betterdwelling.com/how-a-little-money-laundering-can...
Canada seems to be so popular what we have our own verb, "snow washing":
> Of course, you need to keep in mind that the stock market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent.
* https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Shilling
Don't treat your home as an "investment" is probably the best advice: simply a nice place in nice location that you want to spend the next decade or so, and move on with life.
Any gains you see financially will be decades down the road when (a) you don't have rent to pay after the mortgage is paid off†, or (b) you can no longer live independently and sell it to pay for an old-age home.
† But taxes and maintenance still exist.
That's not normal. That's a bubble.
That said, the prices haven't gone up in 3 years now- no one is getting $900k for this unit anymore.