If a file gets renamed or copied, modified or not, rsync will transfer the whole file.
They added --fuzzy to try improve on this situation, but it generally only helps with unmodified files copied/renamed within the same directory.
You can build robust solutions around rsync that work efficiently most of the time, but pathological cases such as users having a huge file regularly regenerated using something like a $(date --iso-8601=seconds) filename (think mysqldump backups) are surprisingly common once you have enough users. Even if you can convince them to uncompress such files for delta transfer sake, something as common as a versioned filename prevents rsync from automatically finding the relationship for use in the delta transfer.