Hacker News Reader

Comment by reccanti | Hacker News Reader

From my perspective, it doesn't really matter to me what percentage of the population holds what beliefs, or how many different political stances they're balancing. What matters is the beliefs they have and the outcomes of these beliefs.

For example, if you think about support gay marriage and LGBT nondiscrimination protections, these are things that would have been framed as fringe progressive ideas a few decades ago, and in the US it's still framed as a "culture war" issue. However, if you are in the LGBT community, these things DO have an impact and will affect your life. It doesn't really matter whether 30% of the population supports these things or 60%.

View on HN

> It doesn't really matter whether 30% of the population supports these things or 60%.

In two-party democracies, 30% and 60% are exactly the percentages that do matter.

At 30% support you can expect no change - even human rights violations will scarcely be considered a relevant political issue with such a level of support.

Once you hit 60% support, you can expect reform that won't be rolled back.

Exactly as we have seen with gay marriage in the USA. Support for gay marriage reached 40% around 2005 - I can't establish when it hit 30%, as it was rarely polled in the decade before this. Support reached 60% for the first time in 2015 - the year when the Supreme Court ruled it a constitutional right.

It’s true that these numbers do matter when it comes to _implementing_ these laws, my argument is that it isn’t a useful barometer for the quality of the ideas.

In your example, 60% of people didn’t support gay marriage in 2005. I would argue that gay marriage didn’t become a “better” idea between 2005 and 2015. It was always a good idea that provided tangible benefits to gay people, public opinion didn’t just reflect this.

This is sort of aimed at other comments in this discussion, which seemed to be lamenting that the “polarizing” ideas were being pushed in people. I don’t really care if something like, say, a “bathroom bill” is considered a polarizing culture war issue or how many people support it. It has an effect on me and the other trans people in my life, and I don’t feel any inclination to compromise on my position

I agree with everything you have said and would add - 70% of the population can be wrong.

It's evident from these examples that the public can change their mind even over a relatively short period of time.

In the UK 60%+ of people have consistently supported reducing immigration, over decades.

It's more correct to think that when 60% of the elites support something change occurs.

a) Recent polling suggests that this figure has dropped from 60%+ to now more like 25%, and,

b) Immigration levels were constrained by being a member of the EU; which the UK has now consequently left.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com