Android overtakes iOS in desired smartphone surveys | Hacker News Reader

Android overtakes iOS in desired smartphone surveys

blog.nielsen.com

18 pointssadiq22 comments

The Android installed base is 37% but only 31% of smartphone buyers-to-be want Android to be their next phone. The iPhone installed base is 27% but 30% of users want the iPhone to be their next phone. Whether or not this indicates the strength of Android, or the weakness of Android, depends on how many of those polled already own a smartphone. If most of the polled group don't own a smartphone at all, then it's pretty good for Android. If the polled group reflects current smartphone market share, then iPhone looks relatively strong, because that would indicate more existing Android owners want to move to the iPhone than vice-versa.

Other factors may also play a role. For example, Android is now outselling iPhone by a two to one margin. Most of these sales could be to people who have never had a smartphone before, and they could be totally wowed by Android. So it would make sense that these users, when polled, would prefer another Android phone--after all, it's miles better than the dumb phone that they were previously using. They've never used an iPhone and don't see why they need one, especially given the higher price of the iPhone (most Android phones are cheap, relatively speaking).

I find the rationalizations made in these iPhone/Android threads fascinating. Not sure doing so is healthy though.

Agreed. One of the delights of ambiguity is that it allows one to project one's own prejudices into the data. Allow me:

For example, what does it mean that 31% of people want an Android phone but a whopping 50% of them buy one? Is it because the lower price is compelling undecideds to switch? Or is it because carriers promote Android in-store because the advertising rev. share is more profitable for them (see http://paidcontent.org/article/419-androids-secret-sauce-goo...). Or is it simply that Android simply kicks ass? Or all three?

But, on the other hand, what does it mean that the Android installed base is 37% greater than iPhone, but Android browser share is only 10% greater? Does that indicate that some people aren't using the smartphone features of Android, and instead are just buying them as cheap phones with cool cameras and email?

There is more information regarding trends --

50% of the smartphone purchases in the last six months were android.

From July-Sept'10 to Jan-Mar'11 people wanting an iPhone dropped from 33% to 30%

From July-Sept'10 to Jan-Mar'11 people wanting an android increased from 26% to 31%

With no iPhone 5 until fall and a big bump in iPhone sales in Jan-Mar'11 due to Verizon, this only means the trends will continue to favor android until Fall.

Some iPhoners have said consumers were preferring to buy iPhones because they are somehow superior. I think that the masses really just want to buy the new hotness. They want what the other guy has.

Its interesting because Android was outselling the iphone when the iphone was the most desired platform. It wouldn't be surprising if android took an even greater market share lead in future.

I'm excited to see that the populace at large (not just tech enthusiasts) are learning about something other than iOS, but I'd be wary of calling this a big win for Google or something similar. Remember that APPL is still raking in much more cash off of their iOS devices than Google is from Android. This is probably true even if you consider the indirect income Google sees from Android.

I think something more telling is that RIM is still slipping. Will they be able to recover?

I find it hard to believe that 30% of potential mobile phone purchasers even know what Android is.

I would love to know how they performed this survey.

Why do you find it hard to believe?

You should adjust your belief to fit the available data, don't adjust the data to fit your belief.

You should adjust your belief to fit the available data, don't adjust the data to fit your belief.

I would normally agree, but in my opinion, surveys fall into the "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" category. They hold the same value as apache-bench numbers that are posted every time a new webstack appears.

There's good data and bad data.

I heard a few people at the next table talking at a restaurant about the new Thunderbolt. Try said it's "a droid" and it was a solid phone because Microsoft built it. I won't comment on if the percentage is valid or not, but a LOT of normal people out there are confused about the current mobile landscape.

Verizon's long and frequent Droid advertising has brought the name to the masses. I know plenty of people that don't know the difference between "Droid" and "Android", but they all recognize that they reference smartphones now. Plus there are so many millions out there, most people at least have a relative that's shown them their neat phone by now.

That's interesting, but I suspect it was biased a bit by the affordability and ubiquity of Android devices. It's hard to turn around in a mobile store these days without bumping into a load of extremely cheap Android phones.

Perhaps people are planning to get Android devices but would love an iPhone if it was the same price. It's the same with cars. If you surveyed people most would say they plan to get a Toyota, but only because Ferrari is outside their price range.

Counterpoint: AT&T is running a huge campaign right now that you can buy an iPhone 3GS for $49- in fact it is the lead on the iphone page on their site:

http://www.att.com/wireless/iphone/

Another thing you didn't mention is that none of the iPhones to date are 4G, and many of the new Android devices are

True, but the survey from the article is from January 2011-March 2011 so it was well before this promotion started.

Nope - this started Jan 2011

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-20027546-17.html

Well, of course.

It has been argued for years that pitting Android against the iPhone is unfair because Android comes in so many devices at many price points whereas the iPhone is just that--the iPhone. There are just two models (the previous, and the current. It used to be just one until 2 years ago.), one hardware spec (with varying memory sizes, sure).

But that's the game Apple chose to play. They intentionally crippled themselves (even if they don't think so), so this is really a comparison of Apple's strategy vs. Google's strategy. And Google's strategy seems to be winning in some aspects.

Google and Apple aren't playing the same game. Apple doesn't care about market share, they care about profits. Google cares only about market share: the OS is free, they give search revenue to manufacturers and app revenue to carriers.

Both strategies are winning given their specific (and different) goals.

In this case the question was "which phone do you desire?" I think that most people would answer that differently than "which phone do you plan to get."

I actually couldn't find a copy of the survey to see what the actual phrasing of the question was - which is why I raised the question of bias. If the question was phrased the way you quote then it would be more accurate.

~45-50% of people want to vote republican, but only 1% will benefit (and those 1% are probably the only people who know and believe all the details and tricks). I'm not saying Android is evil, or wrong, but its adverts have to depend on less truth and internal/natural interest than iphone ads.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com