Have you ever been to the Midwest? They aren’t running out of land. Las Vegas could expand into the desert for an extremely long time. There won’t be the same struggles that you have in coastal cities or exotic expat hot spots.
Yes, water’s a huge issue in the southwest. It’s also managed differently in different places. But from what I saw in LV, I think it can be a solved problem. It is not a constraint.
Edit-But let’s assume water is a constraint. Then why don’t we add to the needed infrastructure projects a project to pump water in from the coast? I’m sure there’s a feasible and affordable way to do it since we already have the highway systems. Just run some pipes alongside it - powered by solar? Doesn’t need to be running 24/7.
Even if your locality has to foot the bill for some huge, expensive water projects like those, it's still going to cost a tiny fraction of your household expenditures. Whereas scare land in popular cities will cost you the bulk of your income for decades.
Come to think of it, I don't think I've ever seen anyone normalize the energy production potential of an area based on the energy needs that are localized for that area.
Wellington, CO is discussing increasing the tap fee for building a new home to $67k, in a place where homes typically cost $380k.
I live near Santa Fe, and the mid-to-long term forecast for water supply is pretty dire. Humans have lived in the area for a long time, and it's not likely to become completely dry. But will there be enough to support e.g. a doubling of the county population? This seems unlikely, even with the sorts of changes in use and infrastructure that you mention.
Ask anyone there who isn't making their money directly off of California money how the influx of California money is working out for them and they won't paint a rosy picture.
I'm with you on subsidies, but it's worth noting that historically, cattle, sheep, etc. were often raised and grazed on land that wasn't (and mostly still isn't) suitable for growing crops, usually because of some combination of elevation, slope[0], soil, or lack of rainfall. Animals are mobile, so you can move them around on a larger area with relatively sparse vegetation that humans don't consider palatable[1], or even migrate them seasonally on an even larger territory.
So, within some limits, animal husbandry in areas otherwise marginal for agriculture can convert poor ground cover to high quality protein (and other animal products). As long as overgrazing is avoided, this seems to me to be a decent and sustainable arrangement.
[0] Terraces can deal with slopes to an extent and slows erosion, but don't always conveniently lend themselves to large scale mechanized agriculture. Solutions to the other challenges also don't work everywhere.
[1] It's worth noting that the domesticated animal least picky about what plants they'll eat is the goat, many varieties of which, when not moved frequently enough, can completely denude an area by eating plants and bushes down to the ground, climb trees to eat all the leaves they can reach and even stripping the bark, which kills the tree. Which makes goatherding a likely driver of desertification in already stressed ecosystems.
And no, the soil is being depleted of all minerals and life. It’s better to spread farming out.
Most places in the US get at least ten inches of precipitation annually. Very few get less than that.
With that much rainfall, a lot of homes can be self supporting with catchment systems, grey water reuse, etc.
Edit: Anyone interested in some best practices should look at what Fresno County is doing. They get an average of 11 inches of rain annually and they were basically desert before a canal system was built in the late 1800s.
In some years, their ground levels have risen because of their water policies and practices. In contrast, much of the rest of California and the Midwest are experiencing subsidence as water tables permanently and steadily fall.
Natural Resources Fresno County is unique among California counties in the range of natural resources (forests, riverways, and wildlife habitats) that encompass its vast terrain.... Two major rivers, the Kings and San Joaquin, flow through this rich landscape, providing the County with its most prized resource, water.[0]
[0] -https://www.co.fresno.ca.us/departments/public-works-plannin...