Study finds Covid and flu coinfection has 5.92x greater chance of fatality
medrxiv.org
medrxiv.org
Current death rates are 4 to 5 percent. (Dead / recovered)
And that is coarse as recovered numbers are harder to get at times.
But, just say that's in the ballpark.
What does basically 6x mean?
Is it 0.05 * 6 = roughly 30 percent?
Or, in more coarse terms, anywhere from 1 in 5 to 1 in 3 chance of death as opposed to roughly 1 in 20 or maybe 30?
Somewhere between 1 and 3 billion people will die this winter due to the flu + covid combo.
Sounds about right.
What I did was take outcomes to arrive at death rates as an outcome.
(Dead people/Recovered people) is roughly 4 to 5 percent.
IFR mixes yet to be determined outcomes with already determined outcomes.
This understates the risk, could be considered best case.
That is:
(Dead People/(people currently sick+recovered people))
If everyone currently infected will live, the IFR is a very best case assumption.
On the other hand, if all those currently sick people were to die, that is a worst case scenario.
In my view, anyone gauging their risk on IFR is doing so on a very wide error margin and said error understates real risk considerably.
None of this takes post infection effects into account. Living, but with organ damage is a real thing and we have poor data on it.
The chance of that happening is currently higher than outcome death rates are.
By definition, in progress means we have no outcome.