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Comment by jahn716 | Hacker News Reader

Potentially great news for adoption

Potentially good news for HODLers

Potentially bad news for decentralization

After the 2017-18 craze, I don't know if HODLers have gained anything on stock market. It has almost followed the broad stock market movement these days.

Look at the covid crash in March, coins like BTC also dipped and peformed worse than indexes like Nasdaq while traditional currency hedge gold rose in value when both of them were crashing.

yeah from what I can tell BTC is more correlated with tech stocks than anything

The covid crash was a liquidity crisis. Gold crashed hard, too. The correlation is just that they're not USD.

Gold dipped slightly and rose fast, nothing compared to what happened to say BTC or the big indices. Gold dipped by 10% from its peak when lowest, BTC by 50%

If I had bought gold and btc at their covid lowest I'd be up 30% with gold, and up 160% with btc. That's some serious performance. Some stocks went up like crazy though, for comparison:

TSLA is up 470%

ZM up 400%

NVDA up 200%

S&P 500 (SPY) up 58%

Nasdaq (QQQ) up 70%

SHOP up 230 %

I doubt most consider gold to be a worthy long term investment for pure returns as there are products that have performed better than that.

It is extremely good as a currency hedge though. BTC was also touted on the same lines with assumptions like finite supply etc being thrown around. Sure, it bounced back when liquidity returned and now has more returns but that extreme volatility and liquidity crunch period saw BTC fizzling out while gold held up decently well.

Really depends when you bought. Using today's date..

1 Yr Holders ETH +120% BTC +51% SP500 +12%

2 Yr Holders ETH +87.5% BTC +92% SP500 +24%

It's probably not fair to go back 5 years as ETH is up over 62,000% which make the other 2 look like a straight line & it would be past the date of your argument.

Here's a Yahoo URL that should allow you to compare different items though.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/chart?p=BTC-USD#eyJp...

Sure, individual coins could have better movement but I would like to track it on a whole, as individual stocks also have better movement than the index. Is there a composite index for the coins at least say the Top 100?

I picked BTC as by volume and market cap, as that's the biggest out of those, about 5-6x of the second biggest in market cap. In the same URL you shared I compared Nasdaq with BTC and both seem to be correlated in the last 1 year. In the last 2 years, Nasdaq seems to have the lead for a while but the end returns seem to be the same.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/chart?p=BTC-USD#eyJp...

Yeah the last year or so btc has become correlated with the markets, so it's no longer a haven from shocks as previously thought. Covid has changed the landscape through the summer though, and the role of bonds as a safe place to weather the storm is questionable at the moment and people are increasingly resentful with the roles and ineffectiveness of central banks, so I've been hearing way more noise about cryptocurrencies as a store of value than before.

The stock 2 flow model predicts btc to reach $1 mill in 2025. I'm curious if this becomes true.

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