Ask HN: Best books/source to learn about investing? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Best books/source to learn about investing?

65 pointstialys67 comments

I'm a college student with well managed debt (I saved fairly well and have manged to keep my debts well within range for paying off within 2 years of graduating) and I'm considering taking some of my paycheck and investing it as opposed to saving it. This includes both retirement funds as well as general stocks/bonds/etc...

I'm wondering what advice you have as well as what sources (I like books) you would recommend for learning about how investing works and how to invest intelegently. I'm really looking to go for lower risk stuff, but I'd also like to do better than the just-under-1% my savings account gives me.

Thoughts?

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The first and best book on investing that you should read: A Random Walk Down Wall Street (http://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/039306...). This book has great investing advice; is funny, interesting, and well-written; and clearly explains what's going on behind different investment approaches. In other words, it doesn't just answer the "what" question, it answers "why" and "how".

As for specific advice, investing isn't that difficult. The best approach is to be lazy: decide on an asset allocation (e.g. 50% US stocks, 30% international stocks, 20% bonds), buy index funds, and rebalance to these percentages every now and then. Vanguard (https://personal.vanguard.com/us/home) is probably the most respected provider of index funds; give them a shot.

Check out David Swensen's lazy portfolio if you want something more advanced: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6203264.

For investing discussion, try http://www.bogleheads.org/.

What do you think of ETF's as opposed to regular old index mutual funds?

ETFs are just fine. There are pros and cons to each, but they are minor. Generally, ETFs have lower expense ratios, but you have to pay a commission to buy them (maybe $10 per purchase at a discount broker). Mutual funds are usually free to buy. So if you're going to invest $100/month, go with a mutual fund. If you're buying $5K at a time, an ETF is fine. Never pay more than 2% of your purchase price on a commission, and <1% is better. There's a little more to it than that (the purchase price of an ETF may stray a bit from net asset value, up or down), but that doesn't usually make a difference.

ETFs sometimes get a bad rap because there are so many slice-and-dice funds - gold mining ETFs, Alabama mid-size business ETFs, etc. Stick with the basics (stocks and bonds, US and international, developed and emerging, large cap and small cap).

Looks like a great book, and generally good advice. Thanks!

you must read "The Dollar Crisis" before you invest in anything - trust me this will help for the rest of your life !!!

Thanks for the suggestion. Could you be more specific as to why this book is so great?

Index fund is the way to go for many people. In fact, it is the suggestion William Sharpe gave to (pre-IPO) Google employees.

http://www.sanfranmag.com/print/node/3368

Yeah, but be careful, most index funds have gone down recently, suffering equity losses in the 10-15% range for the last year, before inflation. Just take a look at the Vanguard funds [1], which have one of the best reputations though. Of course, index funds simply followed the market downwards. Long term, they're still a great, trouble-free investment.

I would also consider buying Berkshire Hathaway stock. Expensive, B-series at about 4K, but worth it, again, long term. Slightly better returns too.

Even better, do not listen to me (IANA financier), but read Phill Greenspan's excellent investing advice [2].

[1] https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsIndexOnly [2] http://philip.greenspun.com/materialism/money

The fact that index funds have gone down recently should not cause you to be careful. If you believe the long term value is still there, the best time to buy is in fact after they've suffered losses.

jon_dahl is dead on. Understand Malkiel's Random Walk and the rest is details.

But for a really thorough discussion of those details check Investments by Bodie, Kane and Marcus (http://www.amazon.com/Investments-Zvi-Bodie/dp/007293414X/re...). My corporate finance prof encouraged me to look into it, then it was required reading for an economics course I took later. I understand it's the standard-bearer in most finance departments, so there's no going wrong if you're willing to work through the technical parts.

#1 for me would be The Intelligent Investor, by Benjamin Graham. Also read all of Warren Buffett's Letters from the Chairman - they're all up on the Berkshire Hathaway website. Peter Lynch's books are good too.

I see a lot of people here recommending A Random Walk Down Wall Street, which is a good book, but you're going to finish it and say "This investing stuff is too complicated for me. I think I'll just put my money in index funds." Which is perfectly sensible investment advice, but if that's all you want, I can tell you "Go invest in index funds" right now and save you a couple hours of reading. ;-)

Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run is like Random Walk - it's decent, but the conclusion is basically "go invest in a stock index fund and don't worry about it". I'm not even sure that's great advice right now - he bases a lot of his argument on historical performance, but when an asset class has done well over the recent past, that usually means it'll do poorly in the near future. Read neither or both - Random Walk gives you good perspective for understanding Stocks for the Long Run.

Finally, if you do get into investing, make sure you start small. I've made some wonderful investment decisions and some truly terrible ones. The wonderful ones more than compensated, but they looked very similar at the time, and if I'd put all my money into the terrible one there wouldn't be any capital available for the wonderful one.

Actually, I'd recommend doing some dry-runs: pretend that you're putting money in a stock, and then track how well you'd have done over time if it were real. Read all the 10-Ks for the stock (they're up in the EDGAR database at the SEC's website), research all the fundamentals, and listen to the analyst conference calls (Yahoo Finance webcasts them live whenever earnings come out). That'll give you a sense of what questions to ask and what events affect the stock price.

I did some of those dry runs and lost hypothetical money on a lot of them, which makes me very glad that they're just dry runs. ;-)

Dry runs aren't terribly useful, unless you're backtesting - investing well means dealing with fear and greed, and you can't simulate that. You need skin in the game.

Here is a good list: http://www.bogleheads.org/readbooks.htm

General Investing

# The Four Pillars of Investing - by William ("Bill") Bernstein.

# Wise Investing Made Simple or The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need - by Larry Swedroe

# The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing - by Taylor Larimore, Mel Lindauer, and Michael LeBoeuf

# All About Asset Allocation - by Rick Ferri

# The Informed Investor - by Frank Armstrong

# The Little Book of Common Sense Investing - by John "Jack" Bogle

# The Coffeehouse Investor - by Bill Schultheis.

Investor Behavior

# Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes And How To Correct Them - by Gary Belsky and Thomas Gilovich

# Your Money and Your Brain: How the New Science of Neuroeconomics Can Help Make You Rich - by Jason Zweig

# Rational Investing in Irrational Times: How to Avoid the Costly Mistakes Even Smart People Make Today - by Larry Swedroe

Financial History

# Against the Gods and Capital Ideas - by Peter L. Bernstein

# Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation - by Edward Chancellor

# A Random Walk Down Wall Street - by Burton Malkiel

Like others here have mentioned, http://www.bogleheads.org/ is a great forum for Vanguard investors.

+1 for Bill Bernstein. An excellent book.

Here are Warren Buffett's recommendations. I hear he knows a thing or two about investing... ;)

http://www.businesspundit.com/10-investing-books-recommended...

That's quite a list! Looks like good stuff though. Anyone actually read those?

I've read The Intelligent Investor and The Theory of Investment Value and Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits. All three were quite good.

To summarize the first two (very roughly): The market isn't perfect and there are a lot of undervalued companies that are great. You have to find these companies at a significant discount to what they are really worth, and then you have to be patient enough for everyone else to realize their error.

The third would IMHO be more geared towards someone that wanted to be a professional. Fisher talks extensively about ways to interview management/competitors/clients for information not found on a balance sheet, and prefers to look for new technology companies with huge potential upsides. He admits himself that most of his success was due to a half dozen huge wins in his entire life, and he tries to document how to find such wins.

Realize that with Buffet's reading list you are going to end up wanting to invest like Buffet/Graham/Fisher, which means patience and a lot of due diligence on what you buy.

If you don't have 100 hours a week to research/interview prospects, Buffet and Graham would both recommend that you set a good allocation and buy index funds. Fisher would probably tell you the same, as he makes it very clear that he never buys a single stock without knowing the company like it was his own (which often included knowing the management on a first name basis).

And remember, the key to allocation-based investing is rebalancing, so you periodically lock in gains and don't get overly concentrated in one thing over time.

I have a couple of the on my "To Read" bookshelf. Haven't gotten around to them yet, though.

Start here:

http://www.bogleheads.org/ (long-term investing)

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=5033 (day & macro trading)

http://wilmott.com/categories.cfm?catid=11 (quant finance & algorithmic trading)

The single most important rule in investing or trading: don't lose money:

http://infraredpress.com/

http://www.rule1investor.com/

http://safari.oreilly.com/9780132213080

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/03/pump-pump-pump-up...

Some additional sources:

http://fooledbyrandomness.com/

http://finmath.com/

Finally, 90% of finance books you can read at Borders or Barnes & Noble and not need to buy and keep as a reference. Do that, rather than spend hundreds on them, and buy only the ones you think you'll want to reread or keep on hand for reference.

The best book on investing that I've ever read is this one:

http://www.amazon.com/Buffett-American-Capitalist-Roger-Lowe...

It's a biography, but there are lots of anecdotes about specific analyses. Nobody can invest like Buffett, but just about everyone can benefit from reading about how he did it.

I'll second that recommendation. Lowe's biography of Buffett is an excellent book -- it's a biography with lessons on investing woven in.

the internet does the job just fine, imo. there are some good investing blogs that will give you good information for the beginner investor.

if you want my 5 second pitch for what you should do, here it is:

open up an online savings account with HSBC direct or ING direct, so you're getting 3%+.

save up money so that you have padding for 3 to 6 months worth of living expenses, in case of emergencies. i'd suggest 6 so that you have 3 months of living and the other half is for monetary emergencies (big car problems, etc).

put your long term investment money (401k/roth) into index funds with low costs. keys are diversification (50% domestic, 30% international, 20% bonds is what i do) and long-term. despite short term drops, over the long haul, the market will grow. set it and forget it.

after that, if you still have some cash left over, you can pick up some more riskier stuff. just make sure that you fulfill your "safe" investments first. ensure your long-term riches and safety first, then go for short-term stuff.

I agree with this advice for the most part. Nevertheless, I would insert insurance (health, disability, auto, etc.) between emergency savings and long term investing. Choose policies that are appropriate to your life needs, but definitely do it. It's harder to do when you're living hand to mouth (e.g. running a start-up), but it's a means of protecting your life, assets and investments. I've had people close to me who had their net worth wiped out by an accident. My $0.02.

oh, i didn't mention insurance because i don't consider it an investment, i consider it manditory.

get insurance, even if its minimal disaster-level stuff. no question.

Highly recommend Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan.

also http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

Agreed. Just take Taleb with a grain of salt - he's a polemical writer, and swings to an extreme. (He's seen the excesses of hedge funds, and so puts most of his money in treasuries.)

It is a great book. But the investment advice can be summed up as: "Put $ in T-Bills".

Either you didn't read the books, or I'm afraid you completely missed the point.

His investment advice is to invest most of your money (say 80%) in T-bills, and the rest in speculative investments (Taleb does it through derivatives). The rationale is that most of your cash is protected (short of a government default) albeit making modest returns. So you'll never spectacularly "blow up"... but you also have the upside exposure to good "black swan" events in your speculative investments.

Well, I saw him give a talk in February at a Long Now Seminar, and I asked him: "How should people invest if they aren't derivatives traders?"

And he said: "Don't invest."

I have read his books and I am familiar with his barbell strategy. Are you really suggesting that he recommends the common man to invest in derivatives and such?

Very interesting - I've often wondered what the rest of us can learn from Taleb's advice.

I've seen a slightly more watered down approach at use. Put 60-70% of your money in government bonds (regular and inflation-indexed), and the other rest in US small-cap value stocks, international small-cap value stocks, and emerging market stocks. These sectors have been more volatile, but with higher returns, over the last 80 years. Historically, this portfolio would perform about as well as an 80/20 stock/bond split. And if the market drops 90%, you still have 60%+ of your money safe.

I'm not convinced that this is the way to go, but it is interesting.

I've thought a lot about it too. Investing in "extremistan" - the stock-ticker price of a stock is dangerous. If you are a buyer and seller of stocks, then a 90% drop in the market is a disaster.

But if you are a buy-and-holder (i.e. a buyer of future cash flows), then a 90% drop in the market is a great thing - you can buy a lot more company that before. Regardless of how the market moves, you will still be acquiring an ever-growing % of whatever company you are looking at.

And you have dollar cost averaging working in your favor as well, so you are guaranteed to do at least a little better than average.

Invest all of it in my startup. :)

Now for real advice:

First, consider getting an online savings account from ING Direct(3%), or putting your money into PayPal(2.5%)...Better than less than 1%.

Second, jon_dahl's advice is spot on. The 2 tricks are to diversify and to dollar cost average(invest your money each month instead of dumping it into the market all at once)....Index funds are the way to go. Vanguard's are great...You might also want to read "Fooled by Randomness" which will make you feel confident that this is the right investment approach, and anything else is pretty much gambling.

I have read many of the recommend books. Here are my two pence.

Books on Wealth

    1. "Rich Dad Poor Dad"
     and find out exactly why someone becomes rich.
    (if you like this one, at some point you may also
     want to quickly scan through "Cashflow Quadrant
     Rich Dad's Guide to Financial Freedom".)

     2. Also "chapter 6 - How to make wealth"
     from "Hackers and Painters's chapter 6 - "

     3. "The Way to Wealth by Benjamin Franklin"

Investing books in this order

    1. Peter Lynch's One Up on wall street
    2. The Intelligent Investor  (Ben Graham)
    3. Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
    4. Security Analysis (Ben Graham)
    5. The Warren Buffet Way is a famous business read not exceptional but read it if you have some time left
    6. A Random Walk Down Wall Street (Read it for a good laugh)

Do NOT read

    1. AA- The Motley Fool Money Guide
    2. How Gerge Soros Knows What He Knows
    3. Investing Online For Dummies
    4. Malkiel Burton - A Random Walk Down Wall Street
    5. Cracking the millionaire code
    6. Joel Greenblatt - You Can Be A Stock Market Genius

Rich Dad, Poor Dad is a truly terrible book full of mostly questionable advice, platitudes, and poor writing.

"Rich Dad, Poor Dad is one of the dumbest financial advice books I have ever read. It contains many factual errors and numerous extremely unlikely accounts of events that supposedly occurred.

Kiyosaki is a salesman and a motivational speaker. He has no financial expertise and won’t disclose his supposed real estate or other investment success.

Rich Dad, Poor Dad contains much wrong advice, much bad advice, some dangerous advice, and virtually no good advice."

John T. Reed, Harvard MBA, successful real estate investor http://www.johntreed.com/Kiyosaki.html

"However much money Kiyosaki did or didn't make in the past, he's making a fortune by selling the idea that he holds the key to your financial future. In one of the many logically creative passages late in the book, he raises the astonishing idea that Americans don't spend enough time trying to emulate the successful—there's just not enough hero worship out there. "It's one of the most powerful ways we learn that we often lose as adults," he writes. "We lose our heroes. We lose our naivete." If there's better proof of how wrong this is than the success of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, I can't think of it."

http://www.slate.com/?id=2067175

There is some good to Rich Dad. For example:

- the explanation of how the rich earn passive income by acquiring assets rather than making a direct trade of time for money. It may seem obvious if you know it, but it's a basic and powerful concept.

- he recommends learning to read balance sheets and becoming financially literate which is, again, basic but important

- his advice to consider the importance of taxes and learn to structure your income to where you pay taxes but no more than you have to.

A lot of it's pretty obvious advice, but there is one thing he does well which is to motivate people to take control and become interested in learning to improve their financial situation. I think that generally outweighs the "bad" and "dangerous" advice in the book.

There are better books out there, but I think that the (unfortunately named) Rich Dad series takes more flak than it deserves.

Problem is that if you're a newbie, and these books are targetd at them, you have no way of sorting out the wheat from the chaff. So the book as a whole is simply not suitable for those that it was meant for.

Yeah... I don't know. I'm hesitant to come across as a big Kiyosaki advocate (I'm really pretty indifferent) but while I was able to think of several "wheat" examples, I can't really think of any chaff. Can you (or anyone) point out some specific areas where his advice is dangerous or just wrong?

A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel

It starts with a brief history of market bubbles, moves to an explanation of the the most popular theories of stock forecasting (and why you probably can't use them to beat the market), explains and argues (quite convincingly) for the efficient market hypothesis, and concludes with lots of practical personal investment advice.

Like many of you, I have spent a lot of time trying to figure out what the best investing approach is. My advice is to not spend any money on investing books. I am not saying not to read them, just don't spend ANY money on them.

I think the future of investing is here, and it is covestor.com. This site helps anyone stand on the shoulders of giants. Covestor shows who really knows how to trade in a verified way. Some users on Covestor are professionals, others are simply individual traders.

For me, I don't have the time to spare to try and beat the S&P. Thru Covestor I have found a CFA/CFP that knows how to beat the S&P waaaay better than I do. His name is Sean Hannon. In case you are wondering, Sean didn't pay me to write this.

www.epicadvisorsllc.com

http://www.covestor.com/rankings/popularity (see #2 on list / user "epicadv")

I forgot to mention that I think a site like Covestor scares the big investment advisor companies. If a CFA/CFP is extremely talented, beating the S&P consistently, Covestor gives him/her a way to prove this. Why would I use Goldman Sachs over a super lean / small investment advisory company when the small company achieves better verified returns, has much lower fees, and doesn't require that I have at least 100k+ to invest with?

For savings, I use FNBO. They have an online presence (FNBO Direct), where everything is done online. https://www.fnbodirect.com The nice part is, they adjust your interest rate as it goes up and down. So when it goes up, you don't need to look around for another bank, they automatically raise it for you. Not all banks are so kind.

For books, try Bogle on Mutual Funds. In the end its a let down excitement wise, because his main advice is basically "put it in an index fund and let it sit for 40 years." He makes a good case that you'll do better than most people this way. Of course, most people don't do this because they want the excitement of trading, watching stocks, etc.

I really like Ben Stein & Phil DeMuth's "Yes You Can Get a Financial Life":

http://www.amazon.com/Yes-You-Can-Financial-Life/dp/14019112...

Very conservative approach to long-term investing, but also helps prepare you for other common life expenses, such as housing and children. A great broad, bottom-line, why-this-really-matters-in-life approach to investing. I wish I had read this book at or before graduating from college.

For the shortest introduction to sensible, index-based investing, read The Coffeehouse Investor (Bill Schultheis). It shouldn't take more than an hour or two to go through, and it contains all the basics. Then, if you're interested in a more in-depth analysis of the same thing, read A Random Walk Down Wall Street (Burton Malkiel), as suggested by several others in this thread.

I really enjoyed Henry Blodgett's "The Wall Street Self-defense Manual: A Consumer's Guide to Intelligent Investing" (http://www.amazon.com/Wall-Street-Self-defense-Manual-Intell...).

It's basically a diatribe against active investing. Buy index funds and hold them.

No one mentioned Dilbert's 9-point formula?

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7Bbe5...

Won't paste it here, but it's worth a look. The first bit of advice is make a will (yes, even if you aren't married - give it to the old hackers home).

As an aside, my etrade savings account yields just north of 5% interest. Might be worth looking into in the interim and even more so if you plan to trade yourself. Is etrade a safe bank? Well, I've had money there for quite a while and in this day and age what bank is safe?

After you've read a few books that were recommended here, but before putting down any real money, be sure to pick up a copy of Taleb's "Fooled By Randomness" to make sure you have a healthy amount of skepticism.

bogleheads guide to investing

I second Bogleheads. Also second the "Intelligent Investor," but that one might be a little too much depth for what you're after.

Jonathan Hoenig's Greed is Good is pretty excellent. http://www.capitalistpig.com/merchandise.html

Don't forget to pick up a book on how to read financial statements, once you figure that out you'll actually be investing, instead of playing the lottery based on hype.

Check out this site to learn a few tips on technical analysis: http://www.stockcaster.net/education

Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders by Jack D. Schwager

For all you who love playing with math check out Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques by Sheldon Natenberg

Investments by Bodie, Kane and Marcus (BKM) is one classic that still has value in this climate.

my favorites: http://www.uglychart.com/?page_id=1534

try investing with imaginary money. the only way to learn about the market is to be in it, even with imaginary investments. what was written about the market in the past is based on the market of the past. its not all bad or outdated, but a some of it is. for example, buy-and-hold only makes sense in a secular bull. in a secular bear, you need to learn a new strategy.

learn by doing. simulate real investing. you will learn a lot.

Random walk down Wall Street, then the Graham books (look for things that are written by the people who taught Warren Buffet).

you must read "The Dollar Crisis" before you invest in anything - trust me this will help for the rest of your life !!!

I completely agree. The conventional wisdom of buy and hold a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds or index funds is simply bad advise right now.

While stocks do tend to out-perform over the "long-term" there have been multiple 10 year periods when stocks lost big in terms of real inflation adjusted returns. (e.g. 1929-1960, 1971-1983, 2000-present)

As a primer on the current financial crisis, I recommend firing up your favorite search engine and reading up on:

* inflation: understand that inflation is not rising prices, it is inflation of the money supply and debasement of the currency

* fraction-reserve banking and fiat currency (understand the leverage built into banks and financials and its impact on the broader economy)

* petrodollars and their importance to the US economy's ability to run deficits and import it's inflation as well as the rise of the Euro and the opening of Iran's oil bourse with it's promise to trade oil in all the world's currencies.

Other posts have listed some great resources, here are some general tips from personal experience:

* Stick to the classics and understand fundamental valuation

* Remember, there is something to technical analysis for short-term trading and market timing, but most of it can be explained by thinking about the supply/demand situation for a specific stock or asset class. Don't get sucked into the voodoo.

* learn to think about stocks and asset classes in marketing terms (branding, awareness, interest, trends, etc.) and you will gain a big edge over most. If you can figure out where the money is flowing and why within market segments or individual stocks, you stand to outperform.

* invest in what you know. find companies you are interested in and learn their investment story. Read their ipo prospectus if it is a new issue or their last 2 annual reports if they are established.

* never accept a stock tip without an explanation of the investment thesis behind the stock. Do your own research and be able to explain why you hold specific positions.

I am an entrepreneur and as such am generally an optimist. However make no mistake, there are clear and significant downside risks to this economy. There is more downside risk than upside potential over the next 6-12 months and possibly longer. The next 12 months will be an education in itself.

I agree that the next 12 months will be an education in itself. I wasn't old enough to remember the 91-92 recession so this will be my first. Things don't look good.

But, I'm curious, why would you not recommend investing in stocks/bonds/funds, even if the economy was going down? I mean, where else would you put your money besides 3% savings accounts? Sure, if your investments return 5% and inflation is 7% you are technically losing money, but it's better than the full -7% you would earn if you stayed out of the market.

Maybe I have to read the book, but I'm curious what you have to say.

commodity index, alternative energy index. stick to indexes, just not mutual fund or stock indexes.

commodities go up when the stock market goes down and vice-versa. if the recession gets worse, commodities will soar. wait until stock prices are bottoming out (timing is luck) and then switcharoo, get out of commodities and into stocks. this is what the smart money did in the 70's and 80's and this time around it is our turn.

http://www.zealllc.com/2007/longwave3.htm

Don't get me wrong, for a sophisticated investor this is an excellent time to make money in the market. The thing is, I believe that many 'sophisticated investors' who come along for the ride in a bull market are unprepared for bear markets.

In bear markets the bias is down, up, and sideways at times - but mostly down. Most investors do not participate on the downside and so are biased against the trend.

There are exceptions though and there are more options available to individual investors than ever before. One simple way to play both sides of the market is synthetic ETF index funds such as those available through ProShares and others. (no formal affiliation, but I do have ProShares funds in my portfolio) With that disclaimer, here's a link: http://www.proshares.com/funds

These funds let you participate in either the short or long side of specific market indices, market sectors, or geographic regions. In some cases they even offer 2:1 leverage allowing you to say, gain 2% for every 1% drop in the DOW. This sort of investment timing generally is not recommended for an average investor. It is very risky stuff.

For the average investor, my advice is to buy gold (gld,xau), silver (slv,slw), and other scarce commodities. Over the past 5 years alone, the US dollar has already lost 65% of it's purchasing power as measured in gold (http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au1825nyb.gif)

Guns, gold, can food, and liquor - if you listen to the internet doomsayers. I'm thinking of setting up an ETF.

The statement that stocks out-perform over the long run indicates that now is exactly the right time to be starting your index fund investment. What better way to ensure gains than to be buying when stocks are low. Even if they continue to go down over the next few years as you continue to invest, if you believe they are a good long-term bet then you will be far head 40 years from now exactly because you invested in stocks.

This may be true. Or it may not be true - there's always a crisis looming, and often when things look bad, the market has already factored that in. Personally, I'd rather stay invested in index funds through good and bad rather than trying to dodge the crises and hit the booms.

That said, I'm doing a few things to try to hedge against inflation, energy costs, and the US deficit. These are long-term plays, and I'll stay in them for 10+ years.

-- invest globally, not just in the US stock market -- invest a small amount in an energy index fund (Vanguard Energy ETF) to hedge against energy price increases -- invest in inflation-protected bonds (TIPS/I-Bonds)

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