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Private flood insurance could certainly be profitable, given high enough premiums.

The obstacle to a functional flood insurance market are all the people who can't afford market premiums, who have complained to their politicians, demanding that the rest of society subsidize their property risk.

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The reason why it’s not possible is that property/casualty insurance ordinarily spreads risk across a broad base whose risk is mostly indistinguishable from one another, and where the likelihood of claim is relatively low. The problem is that once you look at a flood plain map it’s easy to see whether you need flood insurance or not. And if the only people who buy the insurance are the highest risks, it makes little sense to sell it.

I disagree. Insurance -- all insurance, even high risk pools -- is fundamentally a numbers game. If the premiums are high enough, then it can be profitable; if it is unprofitable, then the premiums aren't high enough.

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