The long version could add in the damage to things like cafes, restaurants etc with Covid. Dark times.
Instead of overseas visitors spending in NZ and rich NZ'ers spending their tourist dollars overseas .... the richer NZ'ers are spending locally.
Turns out not as different as the doomsayers predicted.
By not having an epidemic, they continue to have the initiative to choose next steps, rather than having to react to the virus
If there's a vaccine in 2021 it will turn out to have been a good bet.
And, they could progressively open their borders to those presenting with negligible carrier risk. Sufficiently voluminous & cheap testing can keep traveller risk very low, as well as the growing number of travellers who are recovered-immune & vaccinated.
And why do so many people have almost near certain confidence that there will be a vaccine?
We have never made a successful beta corona virus vaccine, some doctors think it impossible because of the the nature of respiratory viruses.
But you do. See you got it here:
> Only option I can see is to maintain isolation until a vaccine is available
What puzzles me is why you don't see this as the only good strategy for any country that has the capacity to attempt it. It's the strategy that saves most lives.
There are currently 10 countries in the Pacific, including NZ, that have no COVID cases. They could form a bubble and allow travel between them.
Yesterday kiwis were allowed to fly to Australia and enter the general population without quarantine.
If the time comes that they're willing to let their elders die so the wealthiest among them can travel or fOr tHE eCoNOmY, they can always open up their borders.
What they have is a choice. They had their elections last night and governing party was re-elected by a landslide, which means the people are happy with their current strategy.
> waiting for a new invention as part of policy is idiotic.
Saving lives and buying time is not idiotic.
The majority of people in New Zealand are 0th of 1st generation immigrants. The majority leave the country at least once a year and have multiple citizenships.
>Saving lives and buying time is not idiotic.
Yes, Queen Victoria buying time for the invention of penicillin is idiotic.
The 2018 census in particular has 28% of current NZ citizens of being 0th generation citizens. They have something like 30% for people with one 0th generation parent: https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/2018-Census-totals-...
So it's closer to 60% of citizen being attached to another country.
The Australian general population? That's fine, it's getting back in to NZ that's the issue.
There will come a point where lives will be sacrificed in order to get economies going again. It's harsh, but true.
Has NZ's economy escaped unscathed? I'd imaging that tourism is quite a large part of their GDP; but if I as a tourist have to quarantine for two weeks on arrival there's really not much point in visiting NZ at all.
Once the rest of the world starts operating again, vaccine or not, NZ will have to follow and relax their isolation. They're hoping that by the time that comes there'll be a vaccine or better treatments. But there's no guarantee of that. The rest of the world will be in the position where those who would have died from Covid have already probably died, but NZ won't.
People who've survived COVID can get it again and die the second time:
Most people now who get it aren't dying. The number of positive test cases is skyrocketing, but deaths aren't. There'll come a point where only death rates will used to judge whether lockdowns should continue or not, not infection rates.
17/Oct 45 (Not all data in yet)
10/Oct 37
3/Oct 22
26/Sep 14
That was the stupid part, and predictable.
> It's not magic, it's just hiding in a cave.
Exactly! Great strategy, so simple to implement and saves the most lives.
We're producing and exporting and importing just fine thank you.
Borders are closed to casual visitors, not goods.
Yup, that can (and just has) create opportunities for the virus to enter.
But that is a risk that can and is being managed.