Hacker News Reader

Comment by Animats | Hacker News Reader

Tesla wanted to avoid having dealerships and sell cars mostly on the Internet. That requires a lenient return policy. Now Tesla will run into "lemon law" problems.[1]

Tesla has exhausted the supply of uncritical fanboys, and is past being the only good electric car manufacturer. Now they have to compete with BMW and Mercedes, who also sell good electric cars. The $50K-$100K "luxury" segment is overcrowded, and those companies are better at fit and finish.

[1] https://www.dmv.com/ca/california/lemon-law

View on HN

Mercedes only has EQC which isn't even being sold in the USA and BMW has no good EVs (i3 is a niche product). I don't know about USA but i think that in Europe Tesla biggest competitors are actually "lower" tier manufacturers like Hyundai, KIA, Renault, Nissan, VW and the only premium competitor is Audi.

You missed Porsche's Taycan.

The already in production VW ID.4 is a direct competitor to the new Model Y, the ID.3 to the Model 3.

The VW ID3/4 are not remotely competitors, other than being compact electric cars. Very different size, performance and materials quality.

Sizes are comparable to M3 and MY.

Performance and range favor Tesla.

Build quality favors VW.

I was responding to a person who said they were direct competitors. I agree that they're competitors in certain respects, insofar as they're both electric vehicles and both have their price spread constrained by the cost of batteries. But they don't directly compete with the same audience. A more reasonable direct competitor to the ID.3 is the Renault Zoe or Peugeot e-208. A more reasonable direct competitor to the Model 3 is the Polestar 2.

The Model 3 and ID.3 are a full size class apart and have wildly different driving character. In BMW parlance it's M340i vs 120i. In Mercedes parlance it's C43 vs A200.

It is too early to assess the relative build quality of the ID.3, though obviously VW do have strong form here and Tesla have weak form. But from a construction standpoint it's worth noting that the ID.3 is cheaply made, well below the standard of even the VW Golf. Despite the price tag, it's an economy car through and through.

It makes no sense to say that ID.3 is a more reasonable competitor to Zoe or e-208 when the wheelbase difference to those cars is bigger than to Model 3 (+~18cm to Zoe, +~22cm to e-208, -~11cm to Model 3). Unfortunately there seems to be no info about passenger volume because then we could actually compare it to lets say EPA size rating etc. Even going by regular car terms the 208 competitor is VW Polo while ID.3 is bigger than Golf...

You're comparing size only. There are far more aspects of a car's design which determine practicality and market perception. Current market prices aside, the ID.3 is designed to be perceived as a cheaper car by dint of being a hatchback with lots of hard interior plastics.

To be clear, I'm not criticising the ID.3, my next car is probably going to look more like the ID.3 than the Model 3. But nonetheless there's a market that's excited by the Tesla's blistering performance and driving dynamics, while there's another market which is more excited by the ID.3's practical and conservative construction.

The Jaguar ipace is competition to the model S. I see them a lot in NL.

You see them a lot. I've talked to some owners: very bad charging setup. This is a complete own goal by Jaguar, they could have easily fixed that, and I suspect they will fix it at some point because it really takes the shine of what would have been a pretty nice car otherwise.

What's bad about charging the car exactly?

Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan EVs outsell Tesla in Europe. Hyundai is also close to outselling Tesla in Europe.

All of that is false. Do you have an annual chart to back your claim?

https://carsalesbase.com/european-sales-2019-ev-phev/

2019 EV sales Europe

1. Tesla Model 3 - 95.168

2. Renault Zoe - 45.129

3. Nissan Leaf - 31.792

4. Hyundai Kona EV - 21.790

5. Audi e-tron - 18.382

Another chart as a data point...

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

It's 2020 now.

European sales for 2020: https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/09/europe-august-2020.htm...

And let's look at some individual countries.

France: https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/10/france-september-2020....

Germany: https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/10/germany-september-2020...

Norway: https://elbilstatistikk.no/

Those are monthly metrics. Everyone knows that Tesla has to ship their cars by sea and there is a delay on the numbers, followed by a surge when the Glovis ships arrive and unload.

VW, Peugeot, Renault, Nissan and even Hyundai all have European plants.

This has been an ongoing cycle since they started selling in Europe. That is why I asked for annual charts. Maybe even quarterly charts would be more accurate.

> Those are monthly metrics.

I suggest you carefully re-read what I linked to.

We'll see if your claim holds true come EOY like I said:

https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1317477704380416001?...

Let's revisit then. Maybe when Giga Berlin goes online? That'll make it an Apples to Apples comparison. So do all of the Monthly, Quarterly comparisons that you want. ( ͡~ ͜ʖ ͡° ).

As predicted:

Most sold BEVs YTD Globally

#1 Model 3 Trophy

#3 Model Y

Tesla = 50% market share of the top 10 BEVs

https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1322213980522213376?s...

We were talking about European sales. I suggest you look at the latest European numbers. Your prediction didn't come true.

What is the 2020 production volumes for BMW/Mercedes electric vehicles?

Not in the top 5. I can tell you that for sure.

Are there any car companies that have the auto-pilot capabilities of Tesla? I drove one the other weekend and was blown away, I’m not aware of any car companies that the same level of software integration as Tesla.

Most of them, but with less hype than Tesla.[1] All the big automakers have a Level 2 system - lane keeping and autobrake. Nobody is shipping level 3.

Cruise and Google have level 4 on the road, doing taxi service, in small scale tests.

[1] https://www.gmc.com/safety-features

I think every Subaru shipped comes with Level 2 now? So for $23k or something, you can have a properly made car with lane keeping, traffic jam assist, adaptive cruise control, etc. etc. It won't turn at stop signs for you but feels much safer when considered with today's state of self-driving.

Totally agree; many cars in the 20-30k range have plenty of “auto-pilot” features already. Sure, my Honda doesn’t stop at lights that are green[0], or ignore stop signs in parking lots[0], so I guess there’s still work to be done.

[0] https://www.consumerreports.org/autonomous-driving/tesla-ful...

It's absolutely nothing like autopilot. Source: I've owned a Tesla for the past three years and I drove a friend's brand new Outback a couple months ago. Autopilot is smooth, easy to use, and lets you basically "monitor" instead of driving for any highway driving. Overtaking a slow car is just tapping the turn signal, and it handles waiting for a window, merging, and accelerating for you.

The Subaru version on the other hand is more of a "driver safety" tool that would sometimes stop you from drifting all the way out of lane, but was nowhere near reliable enough to be relied on to steer.

Subaru markets it as a driver assistance tool, not as a replacement for the driver.

No companies (including Tesla) have the capabilities Tesla claim to have.

It's cool but it's clearly not ready.

That and I'm completely lost about the software-in-my-car thing - music, sure, but what else actually matters while the car is a tool rather than a self driving service (if you will)

> Tesla has exhausted the supply of uncritical fanboys, and is past being the only good electric car manufacturer. Now they have to compete with BMW and Mercedes, who also sell good electric cars.

What an odd thing to say. The objective data does not agree with you however. Pulling up EV sales in the last 5 years would also say otherwise. BMW/ MBenz are not even in the top 5 in terms of sales. Renault (Zoe) BYD, BAIC, and SAIC are closer in terms of numbers:

YTD YoY Vehicle Delivery Growth: https://youtu.be/K9gk8TMXKQk?t=65

Quarterly Vehicle Deliveries: https://youtu.be/K9gk8TMXKQk?t=110

U.S. Electric Vehicles Sales by Model (2012-2019)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpsd0yRYk8c

"Tesla was ranked as the best-selling electric vehicle manufacturer worldwide after selling between 367,000 and 368,000 units in 2019. Tesla's sales volume translates into a market share of just under 18 percent. Chinese manufacturers BYD, BAIC, and SAIC were among the runners-up."

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/541390/global-sales-of-p...

People like you have been saying that since 2008-2010 that "competition is coming" https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/

Yet here we are in 2020 and the incumbents still don't offer (production wise) an efficient EV that can best the range of the Model S from 2012.

"Most experienced automakers race to put a car together in three years," said Angus MacKenzie, editor of Motor Trend magazine. "I can't see Tesla making more than a handful of these -- if any -- in 2012.

That's not good news, considering Tesla has competition coming to the stage quickly. Nissan will sell the electric Leaf and General Motors is ready to bring the hybrid-electric Chevrolet Volt to market next year -- a year ahead of the Model S."

https://money.cnn.com/2010/06/29/technology/tesla_ipo/index....

"Tesla Motors may have significant competition in the high-end electric vehicle space soon, if Fisker Automotive continues on its current path. "

https://venturebeat.com/2008/09/10/high-end-electric-car-com...

>People like you have been saying that since 2008-2010 that "competition is coming" https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/

Uh, in Europe the E-tron is selling very well, arguably much better than what those critics predicted, and is one of the reasons why the sales of Model S and X are essentially disappearing in countries like Norway https://i.redd.it/amrtc9yhl9851.png

As for the range, we all know that EPA sucks and the EPA official ranges for Tesla are fake as fuck https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUsFLHBXQAAmENE?format=jpg&name=...

Real world testing shows that all major car manufacturers are just as competitive when it comes to battery efficiency as Tesla (it's not like Tesla's batteries are essentially different from the competition, after all)

> Model S and X are essentially disappearing in countries like Norway

You conveniently left out the Model 3. It also took Audi almost a decade to finally put it to market. Moreover, the chart from Reddit that you posted is from @fly4dat from Twitter. A known EU Tesla short seller. If you've been following anything Tesla related.

Ever noticed why he never post YTD or EOY numbers? There's a reason for that.

> As for the range, we all know that EPA sucks and the EPA official ranges for Tesla are fake as fuck https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUsFLHBXQAAmENE?format=jpg&name=...

Your sources are hilarious. That image is from TeslaCharts. Another short seller. See Wikipedia link below. The EPA, though sometimes inefficient like other federal orgs is the governing body on range. I trust them more than anonymous short sellers on Twitter. Many people also did real world tests that proves that Tesla is still the efficiency king.

https://nextmove.de/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3_Range_EN-Au...

https://nextmove.de/autobahn-test-tesla-model-x-beats-audi-e...

https://www.kevinrooke.com/post/tesla-vehicle-efficiency

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/01/10/tesla-b...

https://i.imgur.com/bU71ygq.png

From: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/cevc99/ev_core...

"TSLAQ is a loose, international collective of largely anonymous short-sellers.... The group was the subject of a Real Vision video which included interviews with prominent members @TESLACharts and @Paul91701736.[8]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSLAQ

> all major car manufacturers are just as competitive when it comes to battery efficiency as Tesla

You clearly don't even understand the engineering aspect here. The efficiency is from the drivetrain, motors and software. Not "batteries". This is why Teslas can go further than their competitors. While still maintaining the performance specs. Even though they may sometimes have smaller batteries.

>You conveniently left out the Model 3.

No, I did not? See the links I attached again.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com