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Comment by mensetmanusman | Hacker News Reader

So hopeful that their ML algorithm converges with the data they have now.

2020 would be almost redeemed if driverless cars are released for real...

We are just nowhere close. If we were anywhere we would be seeing iterations of it everywhere.

Self driving will be one of those things that’s so gradual that you barely notice it arriving because there is no concrete “it’s here!” moment. It doesn’t just get unveiled one day.

For example, I bought a base line suv this year that drives itself on highways most of the time. I think it’s the coolest thing ever. And a better version will be around every year until one day I wake up and think, “Oh wow self driving snuck up on me!”

I’ve had that very moment about my smartphone recently. My Star Trek data pad snuck up on me.

I like that observation. We're focused on the end result, and don't see steps we're taking.

For the car example, yeah. At first my car just stayed in the lane, then an update and it could change lanes, next it could choose to pass slower cars for me, then it could go highway to highway taking offramps by itself. And now it stops at red lights and stop signs.

It's not everything or nothing, by the time full self driving is here we'll have already been used to 90% of it and it won't feel like such a big step.

My Model 3 is very good, even on badly marked roads: I know it’s sort of fashionable to hate on Tesla’s Autopilot system, but—whatever limitations it does have—I miss it when I’m driving a car without it. And, for this sort of thing, Tesla’s OTA updates are a major competitive advantage.

I've never been a Tesla owner, so I'm not speaking of experience. But from what I see on various YouTube reviews, in urban areas, it's pretty close.

Are there anything specific that you feel are nowhere close?

Without doing any research into the state of the art, I'd be curious about how well it does in rain, snow, and parking lots

It depends what you mean by “urban area” - somewhere like Palo Alto, where you’ve got nice big roads and a few turns before getting on the freeway and lots of sun? It’s not too bad, I’ve driven with colleagues there in their Teslas.

My current school run in London (small streets, changeable weather, congestion, roadworks a plenty) - absolutely awful. I imagine it’s similar for New York. I have been driving my Model 3 in London a lot more recently due to the pandemic, and autopilot is nowhere near ready. Almost worse than useless.

What your car does and what technology is available are two totally different things.

Waymo is exclusively driverless right now. So that's where we are occupying parallel universes. I see videos on YouTube of Waymos with no drivers delivering people that were recorded by riders and came out in the last few days. So in my universe, it already exists. In your universe, it's not close.

Tesla does have amazing abilities and they are close. They will have their limited beta. And it may take a year or two in the end but eventually they will roll it out.

> Waymo is exclusively driverless right now. So that's where we are occupying parallel universes.

Can Waymo drive everywhere? No it cannot so the question of parallel universes is not even relevant.

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