If there is a causal relationship (i.e. better vitamin D levels will reduce the risk) or if this is because of a confounding factor is not known, as far as I know. A confounding factor could e.g. be a more healthy lifestyle in general. Running outdoors will expose people to more sunlight which leads to more vitamin D production - while couch potatoes with an unhealthy lifestyle would get less sunlight and lower vitamin D levels. In this case, supplementing vitamin D might have little to no effect - because all it would do is raising the vitamin D levels while the person still would have bad health because of their lifestyle.
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